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NCEP Chemistry Modeling Overview and Status (With a focus on NEMS AQ development)

NCEP Chemistry Modeling Overview and Status (With a focus on NEMS AQ development). Sarah Lu NOAA/NWS/NCEP Environmental Modeling Center. with acknowledgments to many colleagues and collaborators. Acknowledgments:.

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NCEP Chemistry Modeling Overview and Status (With a focus on NEMS AQ development)

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  1. NCEP Chemistry Modeling Overview and Status(With a focus on NEMS AQ development) Sarah Lu NOAA/NWS/NCEP Environmental Modeling Center with acknowledgments to many colleagues and collaborators

  2. Acknowledgments: EMC AQ group Jeff McQueen, Ho-Chun Huang, Youhua Tang, Dongchul Kim, Marina Tsidulko, Caterina Tassone EMC UMIG group Mark Iredell, Henry Juang, Shrinivas Moorthi, Tom Black, Jun Wang, Weiyu Yang, Ratko Vasic, Ed Colon EMC GMB Yu-Tai Hou, Suranjana Saha, Fanglin Yang, Xu Li, Jesse Meng, Yuejian Zhu, Jongil Han, John Ward EMC GSI group John Derber, Russ Treadon, Daryl Kleist, Haixia Liu CPC Craig Long, Shuntai Zhou NWS OST Paula Davidson, Ivanka Stajner OAR ARL Daewon Byun, Pius Lee, Roland Draxler, Ariel Stein, Hsin-Mu Lin, Daiwen Kang, Daniel Tong, Shao-cai Yu GSFC Arlindo da Silva, Mian Chin, Thomas Diehl EPA Ken Schere, Rohit Mathur, Jon Pleim Howard University Everette Joseph, William Stockwell NESDIS Shobha Kondragunta, Quanhua Liu, Yong Han, Brad Pierce GEMS Final Assembly, Julich, 31 March – 3 April, 2009

  3. Extensive chemistry modeling efforts within NOAA Research Laboratories (e.g., ESRL, ARL, GFDL) and NESDIS. Comparison of RAQMS OMI+TES reanalysis with IONS ozonesondes (373 sondes, August, 2006) PI: ANNE M. THOMPSON Penn State The TES+OMI assimilation results in significant reductions in column, tropospheric (>100mb), and stratospheric (<100mb) biases (all less then 1%) However, the low tropospheric biases are the result of compensating errors in the upper and lower troposphere. Tropospheric biases: +/- 20% Brad Pierce (NESDIS/STAR) Fishman, J et al., “Remote Sensing of Tropospheric Pollution from Space”, BAMS June 2008 Pierce et al. “Impacts of background ozone production on Houston and Dallas, TX Air Quality during the TexAQS field mission”, Accepted JGR-Atmospheres, February, 2009 GEMS Final Assembly, Julich, 31 March – 3 April, 2009

  4. Outline • NCEP current weather-air quality capabilities • National AQ Forecast Capability • Global ozone assimilation • NCEP R&D activities • National Environmental Modeling System • NEMS Interactive atmosphere-chemistry modeling • Proposed enhancements • Impact of dynamic lateral BCs on AQ forecasts • Impact of aerosols on weather forecasts • Conclusions GEMS Final Assembly, Julich, 31 March – 3 April, 2009

  5. NCEP Current Weather-AQ Capabilities GEMS Final Assembly, Julich, 31 March – 3 April, 2009

  6. AQI: Peak Oct 4 EPA Monitoring Network National Air Quality Forecast CapabilityEnd-to-End Operational Capability Model Components: Linked numerical prediction system Operationally integrated on NCEP’s supercomputer • NCEP mesoscale NWP: WRF-NMM • NOAA/EPA community model for AQ: CMAQ Observational Input: • NWS weather observations; NESDIS fire locations • EPA emissions inventory Gridded forecast guidance products • On NWS servers: www.weather.gov/aq and ftp-servers • On EPA servers • Updated 2x daily Verification basis, near-real time: • Ground-level AIRNow observations • Satellite smoke observations Customer outreach/feedback • State & Local AQ forecasters coordinated with EPA • Public and Private Sector AQ constituents • Website monitoring Paula Davidson (NWS OST)

  7. Expansion of coverage 166 Grid cells 265 grid cells 142 grid cells 142 Northeast US “1x” Domain Sept 04 259 grid cells • CONUS “5x” Domain • OPS: AQFC Sept. 07 • EXP: AQFC/CB05 June. 08 • DEV: AQFC/CB05-AERO-4 Eastern “3x” Domain Sept 05 268 grid cells 442 grid cells Jeff McQueen (EMC) GEMS Final Assembly, Julich, 31 March – 3 April, 2009

  8. NCEP Air Quality Forecast Verification http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/aq 8 h Avg Ozone Obs vs Fcst Production Experimental 20 Bias (ppb) Bias (ppb) -10 Almost the same for NW and Mid West Higher for NE, SE and Low Miss Valley (increase positive bias) Higher for SW (improve negative bias) Jeff McQueen (EMC) GEMS Final Assembly, Julich, 31 March – 3 April, 2009

  9. Global Ozone Assimilation in GSI • Why assimilate ozone • Ozone forecasts • UV Index Forecasts • Air Quality Forecasts • Needed for assimilating radiances from IR instruments (eg. HIRS, AIRS) where ozone influences the accuracy of determining temperatures. • Parameterized ozone physics in GFS • Production and destruction are parameterized from monthly and zonal mean dataset derived from NRL 2D ozone chemistry model • Current and future ozone products to be assimilated at NCEP • GFS currently assimilating only NOAA-17 SBUV/2 (nadir obs) • Probable data update to NOAA-18 and possible for NOAA-19 • OMI and GOME-2 total ozone being tested in parallel • offers greater horizontal and latitudinal coverage • NRT MLS ozone profile product is being evaluated. • OMPS (NPP and NPOESS) Craig Long (CPC) GEMS Final Assembly, Julich, 31 March – 3 April, 2009

  10. Total Ozone Analysis Improvements by Assimilating OMI TOz in addition to SBUV/2 More Structure Tighter Gradients Craig Long and Shuntai Zhou (CPC) GEMS Final Assembly, Julich, 31 March – 3 April, 2009

  11. An Overview of National Environmental Modeling System (NEMS) GEMS Final Assembly, Julich, 31 March – 3 April, 2009

  12. National Environmental Modeling System (NEMS) Unified Modeling Infrastructure Group, led by Mark Iredell • Earth Science Modeling Framework (ESMF) http://www.esmf.ucar.edu • NEMS atmosphere • Write history and Post processor • Nesting • Aerosols and Chemistry • Land • Ocean, waves and sea ice • Ionosphere • Ensemble • Data assimilation NCEP UMIG group routinely meets with GSD and GFDL groups GEMS Final Assembly, Julich, 31 March – 3 April, 2009

  13. NEMS Atmosphere Color Key Generic Component Atmosphere Generic Coupler unified atmosphere Including digital filter Completed Instance Under Development Future Development Dynamics Physics Chemistry Dyn-Phy Coupler ARW NMM-B NAM Phy GOCART do nada FVCORE Spectral GFS Phy AQF chem FISL FIM Navy reduced chemistry Navy adjoints The goal is one unified atmospheric component that can invoke multiple dynamics and physics. At this time, dynamics and physics run on the same grid in the same decomposition, so the coupler literally does nothing. FY2010 operational implementation for NEMS NMM-B Mark Iredell (EMC) GEMS Final Assembly, Julich, 31 March – 3 April, 2009

  14. Developing an interactive atmosphere-chemistry forecast system • In-line chemistry advantage • Consistent: no spatial-temporal interpolation, same physics parameterization • Efficient: lower overall CPU costs • Easy data management • Allows for feedback to meteorology • Requirements: • Meteorology and chemistry should be initialized with GSI • Conform to NCO CCS computer architecture • Conform to NCO software & I/O standards (GRIB/BUFR) • NEMS AQ development: • NMM-B Chem (using CB05) • In support of regional AQF system • GFS coupled with GOCART • Potential for improving weather forecasts (by improving aerosol-radiation feedback in GFS and atmospheric correction in GSI) • Providing LBCs for regional AQF aerosol predictions GEMS Final Assembly, Julich, 31 March – 3 April, 2009

  15. NEMS Tracer Experiments: NMM-B and GFS GEMS Final Assembly, Julich, 31 March – 3 April, 2009

  16. NEMS NMM-B tracer experiment Youhua Tang (EMC) GEMS Final Assembly, Julich, 31 March – 3 April, 2009

  17. NEMS GFS tracer experiment Change in total mass loading (scaled by initial values) IC = 2009/01/01 00Z -1.37%  0.03% (diffusion off) GB EAS WAF SAM NAM GLB_SFC GLB_UTLS GLB_ALL T62 L64 30-day experiments: CTR, CLD (Ferrier cloud microphysics), DYN (Adiabatic), SAS (Simplified Arakawa-Schubert convection), TVD (Flux-limited vertical advection) GEMS Final Assembly, Julich, 31 March – 3 April, 2009

  18. NEMS GFS tracer experiment Zonal mean cross section for SAM_SFC & SAM_UTLS (IC=20090101)Flux-limited vertical advection reduces (but does not eliminate) negative tracer values GEMS Final Assembly, Julich, 31 March – 3 April, 2009

  19. Global aerosol forecast and analysis system (GFS-GOCART) GEMS Final Assembly, Julich, 31 March – 3 April, 2009

  20. Global aerosol forecast and analysis system Goal: Improving weather and air quality forecasts by incorporating prognostic aerosols in GFS and assimilating global aerosol information in GSI via NCEP-NASA/GSFC-Howard University collaborations MODIS fire emissions Regional AQF Emissions Global forecast and analysis system Dynamic LBCs GOCART Modeling Atmos. Correction SST Analysis Data Assimilation Algorithm Color key Validation NASA obs and tech ROSE project Various datasets AERONET, OMI, CALIPSO Satellite data NCEP DSSs GEMS Final Assembly, Julich, 31 March – 3 April, 2009

  21. Global aerosol forecast and analysis system(-cont’d) • Multiple, complementary approaches: • On-line systems including GOCART: • GFS/GOCART: new capability being developed • GEOS-5/GOCART: NASA/GMAO real-time system • GFS~GEOS-5/GOCART: Hybrid model (GEOS-5 dynamics + GFS physics) • Off-line GOCART CTM • Driven by GFS meteorology • Phased development: • Development of prototype system • Transition to real time system • Transition to operational production • Prototype system extended to include ozone chemistry (if resources available) • Transition to NCEP’s climate system (if resources available) NEMS/GFS-GOCART Dust-only offline GFS-GOCART GEMS Final Assembly, Julich, 31 March – 3 April, 2009

  22. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gc_wmb/dkim/web/html/dust_day.htmlhttp://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gc_wmb/dkim/web/html/dust_day.html GEMS Final Assembly, Julich, 31 March – 3 April, 2009

  23. Challenges for incorporating chemistry component into NEMS GFS: • Resources !! Code optimization needed • The inclusion of 15 passive tracers leads to ~45% increase in wall time • The 3d atmosphere file sizes increased by the factor of 2.4-2.7 • Needed capabilities • Convective transport (under testing for RAS) • Tracer scavenging • Positive definite advection with mass conserving The chemistry modeling efforts will lead to scientific advances and technical upgrades in the NEMS GEMS Final Assembly, Julich, 31 March – 3 April, 2009

  24. Proposed Enhancements • NOAA medium range weather forecasts • Climatology-based aerosol distributions are used in the GFS and background aerosol conditions are assumed in the GSI Community Radiative Transfer Model (CRTM) • Global aerosol products will improve the representation of aerosol distributions and variations within the GFS/GSI system • NOAA air quality forecasts • Default static boundary conditions are used for the developmental aerosol air quality predictions • Global aerosol products will provide improved aerosol lateral boundary conditions for the AQF system and, consequently, improve AQF aerosol forecasts GEMS Final Assembly, Julich, 31 March – 3 April, 2009

  25. The impact of aerosols on medium range weather forecasts GEMS Final Assembly, Julich, 31 March – 3 April, 2009

  26. Climate Forecast System (CFS):GFS coupled with GFDL MOM3 OPAC climo. U-wind Cross Section at 10W GOCART climo. The intensity and location of African Easterly Jet are affected by background aerosol loading (via direct radiative effect) GEMS Final Assembly, Julich, 31 March – 3 April, 2009

  27. RMS errors of NH temp for 00Z forecasts RMSE increased Pressure RMSE reduced Forecast hours GDAS experiments with different aerosol representations: T126 L64; PRC (climatology) vs PRG (time varying) GEMS Final Assembly, Julich, 31 March – 3 April, 2009

  28. North America temperature verification Climo. Time- varying Temperature biases reduced by ~ 10% in lower atmosphere GEMS Final Assembly, Julich, 31 March – 3 April, 2009

  29. The impact of lateral boundary conditions on air quality forecasts GEMS Final Assembly, Julich, 31 March – 3 April, 2009

  30. Ozone Lateral Boundary Conditions Tests Obs (IONS), Fixed, RAQMS, MOZART, GFS-O3 Youhua Tang (EMC) Tang et al., The impact of chemical lateral boundary conditions on CMAQ predictions of tropospheric ozone over the continental United States, Environmental Fluid Mechanics, 2008 GEMS Final Assembly, Julich, 31 March – 3 April, 2009

  31. Aerosol Lateral Boundary Conditions Tests: Trans-Atlantic dust Transport • During Texas Air Quality Study 2006, the model inter-comparison team found all 7 regional air quality models missed some high-PM events, due to trans-Atlantic Saharan dust storms. • These events are re-visited here, using dynamic lateral aerosol boundary conditions provided from dust-only off-line GFS-GOCART. Youhua Tang and Ho-Chun Huang (EMC) GEMS Final Assembly, Julich, 31 March – 3 April, 2009

  32. In Conclusion • NCEP is developing NEMS as next-generation weather forecast system • NEMS R & D efforts continue in interactive atmosphere-chemistry modeling system • NMM-B coupled with CB05 • GFS coupled with GOCART • NCEP modeling efforts leverage common modeling framework (ESMF), shared software development (via NOAA-NASA-DOD JCSDA), and research collaborations, such as • GSI ozone and aerosol data assimilation working group (EMC AQ group) • Co-Ops Biomass Burning Emission Committee (Jeff Reid and Shobha Kondragunta) • AeroCOM (Michael Shulz, Stefan Kinne, and Mian Chin) • GEMS/MACC community GEMS Final Assembly, Julich, 31 March – 3 April, 2009

  33. THANK YOU GEMS Final Assembly, Julich, 31 March – 3 April, 2009

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