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The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status

The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status. Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 29 September 2014. For more information, visit: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/American_Monsoons. Outline. Highlights

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The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status

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  1. The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 29 September 2014 For more information, visit:http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/American_Monsoons

  2. Outline • Highlights • Recent Evolution and Current Conditions • NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts • Climatology

  3. Highlights • 30-day rainfall deficits continue over many areas in northern South America. • During the last 7 days (22-28 September 2014), below-average precipitation was observed over most of Colombia, Venezuela, Guyana, and northern and central portions of the Amazon Basin in Brazil. Above-average precipitation was observed over portions of southwestern Brazil and southern Paraguay. • For 29 September -5 October 2014, below-average precipitation is predicted for portions of northern South America, southern Brazil and Uruguay. Above-average precipitation is predicted for many areas in northern and central Argentina.

  4. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns:Last 7 Days Total Anomaly During the last 7 days, below-average precipitation was observed over most of Colombia, Venezuela, Guyana, and northern and central portions of the Amazon Basin in Brazil. Above-average precipitation was observed over portions of southwestern Brazil and southern Paraguay.

  5. Rainfall Totals & Anomaly Patterns:Last 30 Days Total Anomaly During the last 30 days, below-average precipitation was observed over the Amazon Basin, Venezuela, Guyana, Suriname, and portions of southeastern Brazil. Above-average precipitation was observed over southern Paraguay and Uruguay.

  6. BP Recent Evolution: RainfallLast 90 Days BP: Brazilian Plateau • 90-day rainfall deficits are present over the southern Amazon Basin and portions of the Brazilian Plateau. • 90-day rainfall totals are slightly below average over southern Brazil.

  7. Tropical Pacific and Atlantic SST Anomalies SSTs are above average in the equatorial Pacific and below average in the eastern equatorial Atlantic. (For details concerning El Niño – La Niña, go to the link below.) A weekly PowerPoint summarizing the ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictionsis available at: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml

  8. NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precipitation Forecasts from 29 September 2014 –Days 1-7 Total Anomaly Note: Bias correction based on last 30-day forecast error.

  9. Atmospheric Circulation Recent 7 days • Upper panels: During the period of 20-26 September 2014, anomalous anticyclonic circulation (center indicated by red A) was observed over subtropical South America. • Lower panels: Anomalous rising motion occurred over southern Brazil and Paraguay,. Anomalous sinking motion occurred over the central and eastern Amazon Basin. A • Rising motion (negative omega, yellow/red shading), usually associated with wetter- than-normal conditions. • Sinking motion (positive omega, blue shading), usually associated with drier-than-normal conditions.

  10. 925-hPa Wind &Temperature Recent 30 Days Recent 7 Days During the 7-day period 20-26 September 2014, temperatures were above average over central Brazil, and below average over southern Argentina and southern Chile. Low-level (~600 m above sea level) wind and temperature anomalies based on the NCEP Climate Data Assimilation Systems (CDAS) analysis. The patterns of anomalous temperature and wind at 925-hPa are usually similar to surface observations. Note: Areas with surface pressure below 925-hPa are masked out.

  11. NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precipitation Forecasts from 29 September 2014 – Days 8-14 Total Anomaly Note: Bias correction based on last 30-day forecast error.

  12. NCEP/GFS MODEL FORECASTS • For Days 1-7 (22-28 September 2014), below-average precipitation is predicted for portions of northern South America, southern Brazil and Uruguay. Above-average precipitation is predicted for many areas in northern and central Argentina. • For Days 8-14 (29 September-5 October 2014), below-average rainfall is indicated for central and southeastern Brazil and above-average rainfall is predicted for most of Colombia, Ecuador, Peru, extreme southern Brazil, Uruguay and portions of northern Argentina.

  13. Forecast Verification Forecast from 15 Sep. 2014 Valid for 22-28 September 2014 Forecast from 22 September 2014 Valid for 22-28 September 2014 Observed 22-28 Sep. 2014

  14. ClimatologyRainy Season Dates ONSET DEMISE

  15. Precipitation Climatology

  16. Precipitation Climatology Animation

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