Population Average GDP ( income ) per person

1. GGR347/1407, Closing Lecture:PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHER – CONSTRUCTING SCENARIOS OF FUTURE GLOBAL DEMAND FOR FUELS AND ELECTRICITY

2. Future energy use in a given sector (transportation, buildings, industry, food system) in a given region can be represented as the product of: • Population • Average GDP (income) per person • Average activity levels per person as functions of income (activity levels would be: annual distance travelled, commercial and residential building floor area used, indoor temperatures that are maintained in summer and winter, amounts of materials consumed) • Proportions of different activities (i.e., proportion of total travel by LDVs (light-duty vehicles) or air, amount of meat in the diet) • Energy intensities per unit of activity (i.e., kWh/m2/yr for different building services, MJ/km for different transportation modes, MJ/kg for different material consumed)

3. Population and GDP/P together are Activity Drivers. I use the following scenarios in what follows:Population scenarios:– UNDP 25th and 75th percentiles from a randomly generated set of scenarios (25th percentile means that 25% of the scenarios had a population curve equal to or less than that shown, and similarly for the 75th percentile)GDP scenarios: - made up (for illustrative purposes only)

4. UNDP Low population scenario (25th percentile)

5. UNDP High population scenario (75th percentile)

6. Fertility rates circa 2005. Blue is for below-replacement fertility

7. Resulting world population, and scenarios for world average GDP/P

8. Resulting world GDP for high population combined with high GDP/P and low population combined with low GDP/P

9. Note: various estimates indicate that we’d need to spend (invest) about $1 trillion / year in order to make the transition to a C-free economy by mid-century. That sounds like a lot of money – but it is less than 1% of world GDP (which was $114 trillion in 2025)

10. Transportation Sector Activity Levels

11. The activity levels (amounts) that need to be considered for passenger transportation energy use are: • Total distance travelled per person per year • The proportion of travel by light-duty vehicles (LDVs – cars and light trucks), 2- and 3-wheelers, buses and mini-buses, by rail and by air • The share of different vehicle market segments (such as compact cars, SUVs) within the LDV market

12. Passenger travel today (1000s km per person per year): Source: World Business Council for Sustainable Development

13. Observations on present-day per-capita travel • Annual travel varies by more than a factor of 10, from 1600 km/person in Africa to 21,000 km/person in NorthAmerica • Travel is overwhelming by LDVs (16,000 km/P/yr) and air (3500 km/P/yr) in N America and by buses and mini-vans in Africa • Per person travel by LDVs in W Europe is only half that in N Amer • 2-wheelers (i.e., mopeds) and 3-wheelers (rickshaws) are important (~ 25% of total) in Asia, while buses and minivans are important (> 25%) everywhere else except N Amer and W Europe • Rail accounts for only about 5% of travel in WEU and FSU, and almost 10% in E Eur and PAO (Japan and S Korea)

14. 2- and 3-wheelers, and buses and mini-buses, each have an energy today of about 0.5-0.6 MJ/pkm. This is less than the most fuel efficient cars envisaged (~ 1 MJ/km) if they have only one person in them. Thus, if a significant fraction of travel currently by 2- and 3 wheelers or by buses and mini-buses shifts to single-occupancy LDVs rather than to various forms of rail travel (subways, trams, trains) as Asian countries becomes richer, transportation energy intensity in Asia will increase even with massive improvements in LDV fuel economy

15. Carbon “lock-in”

16. Figure 5.8 Relationship between private transportationenergy use and urban density Source: Newman and Kenworthy (1999, Sustainability and Cities: Overcoming Automobile Dependence, Island Press, Washington)

17. Transportation Sector Energy Intensities

18. 2011 Argonne National Lab study, fuel and electricity energy intensity for compact cars

19. Impact of vehicle choice from the 2011 Argonne National Lab study

20. Intended reductions in LDV fleet-average energy intensity Source: The International Council on Clean Transportation. http://www.theicct.org/global-pv-standards-chart-library

21. Intended reductions in energy intensity, light trucks Source: The International Council on Clean Transportation. http://www.theicct.org/global-pv-standards-chart-library

22. Source:The International Council on Clean Transportation. http://www.theicct.org/global-pv-standards-chart-library

24. Aerodynamic Truck

25. Projection of average CO2 emission per rpk (revenue passenger-km) for the US aircraft fleet Source: Schafer et al. (2016, Nat Clim Change 6:412-418)

26. Summary of Efficiency Potentials • LDVs, urban driving: PHEVs running on fuel, factor of 3 lower energy intensities • Combine with a shift of 60% of driving to C-free grid electricity: fuel demand would be reduced by a factor of 7-8. • Combined with a small downsizing of LDVs, and we’re talking factor of 10 reduction in fuel demand. • LDVs in highway driving – more like a factor of 4 • Trucks for freight – factor of 2-3 per tkm • Air transport – factor of 2 minimum reduction per pkm • For each km of LDV driving shifting from fuel to electricity, the electrical energy required is about 1/3 the fuel energy displaced (minimizing the impact on electricity demand)

27. Calculating “Climate-Oriented” scenarios of global transportation oil useIn each of ten regions, apply the income scenarios to generate annual travel/person, account for changing energy intensities assuming achievement of the potentials identified in this course by 2035 to 2050, allow for some shift in the proportions of travel by different modes toward public transit or smaller LDVs, and multiply by population to get total energy use.Allow gradual introduction of biofuels, full BEVs or hydrogen, accelerating after 2035.

28. Scenario for the gradual transition from conventional (internal combustion engine) to a mixture of PHEV and BEV (battery electric vehicles) Source: Harvey (2014, Energy Policy 54:87-103)

29. Falling costs of battery packs for electric vehicles X X=target announced by Tesla in 2016 Source: Nykvist and Nilsson (2015, Nature Climate Change 5:329-332)

30. Hypothetical slow (solid lines) and fast (dashed line) transitions to biofuels or hydrogen for the fuel (non-battery) component of transportation Source: Harvey (2014, Energy Policy 54:87-103)

31. Resulting total transportation fossil fuel demand

32. Note that even the highest growth curve in the preceding figure assumes the achievement (by 2035) of levels of vehicle fuel efficiency far in excess of anything contemplated at present. Transportation oil demand still rises by 50% from 2005, and by 25% for the lowest scenario. As this may exceed oil supply (depending on when oil supply peaks), even more stringent scenarios – that add behavioural changes to the technological improvements. This gives the dotted lines, labelled “Green”

33. Building Sector Energy Use

34. Overview of global on-site building energy use in 2010 Source: Harvey et al. (2014)

35. Heating energy requirements of residential buildings built at different times in the past in various countries, in comparison with the Passive House standard Source: Harvey (2013a)

36. Trends in energy use of new commercial buildings in California, complying with various versions of the ASHRAE-90.1 building code

37. How could we go to zero CO2 emissions? • For electricity end uses– decarbonize the electricity supply. This will be more likely to be feasible the lower that total electricity demand can be kept. • For fuel demand (used for space heating, hot water, and some cooking), there are several options: - use advanced biomass energy (such as pellet boilers) where practical logistically (in rural areas and small communities). More feasible in buildings with very low heat requirements (given that biomass is bulky) - use district heating, with the district heat supplied centrally with biomass, or using solar thermal energy that is stored from summer to winter underground, or drawing on deep geothermal heat. More low-grade geothermal heat will be useable the lower the temperature at which heat needs to be supplied. - switch to hydrogen produced from water using C-free energy sources - use electric heat pumps for space and water heating, either air-source (in mild climates), ground-source, or exhaust-air heat pumps

38. Although using electric heat pumps for space heating adds to electricity demand, the impact can be kept small to zero because • Total heat demand can be first reduced by factors of 2-10 • For a heat pump with a COP of 4 (achievable in low-energy buildings using ground-source heat pumps), only 1 unit of electricity is needed for every 4 units of heat demand • Some buildings that are currently heated via electric-resistance heating (which is like having a COP=1) could be converted to electric heat pumps, creating reductions in existing electricity use to offset the increase the would arise from converting some non-electric space heating to heat pumps All of the above will likely not be sufficient to completely eliminate fossil fuel demand. To offset the small remaining fossil fuel use, direct capture of CO2 from the atmosphere using renewable energy, and its disposal in deep geological formations, might be feasible

39. Saving potential: For new buildings, energy use can typically be reduced by 50% compared to current (2010) practice, through a combination of • high-performance envelopes, • utilization of passive heating and ventilation, and passive/low-energy cooling techniques, • advanced systems (especially displacement ventilation and chilled-ceiling cooling in commercial buildings), • advanced lighting systems involving daylighting, • use of the most efficient equipment, properly sized and commissioned • enlightened and co-operative occupant behaviour (especially acceptance of adaptive thermal comfort systems, daylighting and passive ventilation)

40. The specific measures that are most appropriate for cooling vary with the climate • Hot summer, cold winter – can use earth pipes to precool ventilation air in the summer (as the ground will be relative cold) • Hot-dry climate: thermal mass with night ventilation (there is a large day-night temperature swing in arid regions) plus external insulation to keep daytime heat out. Evaporative cooling if water supply is not too scarce. • Hot-humid summer: low thermal mass (so that the building can cool down during cool periods), open design to facilitate lots of airflow, solar-powered desiccant cooling and dehumidification • Mild summers: can rely on natural ventilation (perhaps driven by solar chimneys or wind catchers ) and minimization of solar and internal heat gains. Openings are needed, made possible in high-rise office towers through the use of a double-skin façade.

41. Comprehensive renovations can often achieve 50-75% energy savings in existing buildings through • External or internal insulation in residential buildings • Curtain-wall replacement in commercial buildings • Revamping of antiquated HVAC systems • Lighting upgrades • Fixing defective control algorithms • Solar renovations – glazed balconies, transpired wall solar collectors

42. Energy Savings Potential in Industry • Biggest savings are through recycling • In combination with improvements in the efficiency of producing primary and secondary metals, 90% recycling reduces the energy requirement to make steel by a factor of 4.5 and aluminium by a factor of 7 • Factor of two potential reduction in world average cement energy use • Pulp and paper industry can become a net exporter of energy

43. Energy Savings Potential in the Food System • 25% for direct energy use on farms • 20-50% reduction in energy required to make a given quantity of fertilizer, 50% reduction in fertilizer requirements in most industrialized countries • Low-meat diets – give a direct savings in energy inputs, reduce land requirements (freeing up land for production of biomass for energy), and permit a shift to organic systems (with a further 10-20% reduction in energy use per unit of food produced)

44. Ontario Climate Action Plan, June 2016 • Establishes a “cap and trade” system, to go into effect in ~ March 2017, whereby major emitters and providers of fossil fuels have to purchase permits for their emissions, with the total number of permits falling 5% per year (indefinitely), and with the option of purchasing permits from reductions in California, Quebec, Manitoba and any other jurisdictions that join the trading system • Will generate $1.9 billion in new revenue in the first year, most of which will be dedicated to providing financial aid for the reduction of emissions through energy efficiency, investments in public transit and bicycling infrastructure, and greater deployment of renewable energy

45. Some key elements: • The building code to require all new small buildings to be net zero carbon by 2030 • My take: net zero energy is doable and affordable (meaning: onsite-generation of electricity equals the total building energy consumption on an annual basis). To minimize cost, it requires reducing energy use to the point where any further reduction in energy use would cost more than adding solar energy. At that point it is cheaper to add enough solar energy to offset the remaining energy use.

46. Government subsidies, new buildings • 4.3: “Rebates will go to individuals who purchase or build their own near net zero carbon emission homes, with energy performance that sufficiently exceeds the requirements of the Building Code”

47. Government subsidies existing buildings: • 4.1: The government will use some of the revenue for the cap and trade system to subsidize the cost of ground source (“geothermal”) and air source heat pumps, and solar thermal and PV systems – but there is no mention of reducing the cost of high-performance envelopes. • 1.3: The government to provide rebates for the installation of energy efficient equipment in existing buildings, such as efficient boilers, adaptive thermostats and lighting retrofits in multi-tenant buildings

48. In the transportation sector, the Climate Action Plan will • Require 10% of the parking stalls in new multi-unit residential buildings, and in new workplaces and some other locations, to have already installed charging stations for electric vehicles, with the remainder set up to permit installation of charging stations later • Will offer subsidies of up to $14000/car for the purchase of electric vehicles

50. Follow-up in GGR348/1408: • Assess the potential and cost of alternative sources of C-free energy • Take the scenarios of global demand for fuels and electricity and develop scenarios of renewable energy supply that separately entirely satisfy these two demands by 2080-2120 • Work out the required rates of installation of C-free power and the required rates of building factories to produce PV panels and wind turbines • Work out the required material flows and the net energy gain during the period when C-free power supply is rapidly expanded • Work out the CO2 emissions during the next century and use this to drive a simple climate-carbon cycle model in order to assess a range of changes in global mean temperature (depending on the climate sensitivity and climate-carbon cycle feedbacks)