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Does prior history of domestic violence predict domestic murder or other serious assaults?

Does prior history of domestic violence predict domestic murder or other serious assaults?. Sara Thornton, Thames Valley Police. The claim. There is a clear relationship between everyday…interpersonal violence…and…domestic homicide (Websdale 1994)

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Does prior history of domestic violence predict domestic murder or other serious assaults?

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  1. Does prior history of domestic violence predict domestic murder or other serious assaults? Sara Thornton, Thames Valley Police

  2. The claim • There is a clear relationship between everyday…interpersonal violence…and…domestic homicide (Websdale 1994) • There is therefore an opportunity to intervene in escalating patterns of violence • Therefore we need to assess the risk based on predictors drawn from studies of domestic murders • Prediction can lead to prevention

  3. The research questions • In how many cases was there a prior history of reported domestic violence? • How accurate were the risk assessments based on prior history in terms of false positives and false negatives? • Might a prospective denominator-based prediction produce more accurate forecasting than a numerator-based prediction? • Are the predictors for murder different from other serious assaults?

  4. Fear Isolation Separation Conflict over a child Stalking Pregnancy Child abuse Frequency of abuse Escalation of abuse Jealousy Weapons Threats to kill Strangulation Sexual assault Other threats Mistreat animals Drug abuse Attempt suicide DASH high risk factors for potential murder victims  

  5. Domestic Violence Offences

  6. Gender and outcomes

  7. Risk of death per attack:4 times higher for women victims Female Victims Attacks = 67 Death = 11 Ratio = 1 in 6 Male Victims Attacks = 51 Deaths = 2 Ratio = 1 in 25

  8. Victim prior contact with the police

  9. Prior risk assessment

  10. How well did DASH predict? • None of the 13 murder victims had been assessed as high risk • Of the 6 murder victims who had been risk assessed following a previous incident, 1 was assessed as medium risk and 5 standard risk • No prior domestic incident contact with police for 7 of the murder victims • DASH missed 55% of attacks

  11. Prior domestic incident contacts between victim & police

  12. Most recent prior victim contact with the police for domestic incidents (n=53)

  13. Offender criminal record

  14. Next steps • Collect data on the false positives: analyse MARAC watch list • Investigate potential denominators • Identify further studies which have assessed the effectiveness of DASH or its predecessor

  15. Thank you

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