Quentin Chiotti* Ken Ogilvie* John Drexhage # Mary Pattenden* qchiotti@pollutionprobe

1. Joint Air Quality and Climate Change Strategies: Challenges and Opportunities Quentin Chiotti* Ken Ogilvie* John Drexhage# Mary Pattenden* qchiotti@pollutionprobe.org www.pollutionprobe.org *Pollution Probe # IISD NERAM V October 17 2006

2. Energy and Air Issues Energy Production and Use Emissions Atmospheric Issues ACID RAIN SMOG CLIMATE CHANGE HAZARDOUS AIR POLLUTANTS NOX VOCs SO2 N2O CH4 CO2 PARTICULATE MATTER TOXICS COAL OIL NATURAL GAS OTHER* * Limited emissions from various sources, including biomass burning. NERAM V October 17 2006

3. MAIN ISSUES Key sources Atmospheric chemistry and interactions Direct and indirect health effects Policies Solutions – Technical and non-technical Co-benefits or unanticipated outcomes NERAM V October 17 2006

4. Knowledge Gaps: AQ & CC • Atmospheric science: highly complex, uncertainties, forecasts/scenarios • Scale: hemispheric, transboundary, local – [GHG] truly global • Temporal differences between pollutants and response times • Sources: Energy/Electricity, Transportation, Agriculture, LIEs, SMEs • Health effects: Climate change on air quality; synergistic impacts of heat stress; other health effects (e.g. WNV) • Technological and non-tech solutions: similar challenges but significant differences • Policies: silos; counteractive; synergistic NERAM V October 17 2006

5. So How Do We Move Forward? Need to Move Past the Four Stages of Denial • Deny there is a problem • Deny you are a source/part of the problem • Deny that there is a technological solution • Deny that the technological solution is economically feasible or affordable NERAM V October 17 2006

6. Framework To Evaluate AQ and Climate Change Strategies • Degree of scientific certainty about the problem and health effects • Knowledge of main emission sources? • Agreement on solutions and expected outcomes? • Which are economically feasible and politically acceptable? • Direct and indirect impacts of solutions and how are these being contested in the political arena? (e.g. nuclear option) NERAM V October 17 2006

7. Key Linkages: Chapter 5 • Chemical/atmospheric interactions • Actions that directly reduce GHGs and other air pollutants • Actions that indirectly reduce energy use and emissions • Actions that are both mitigation and adaptation – measures which reduce emissions and enhance adaptive capacity NERAM V October 17 2006

8. Climate Change – Air Quality: IPCC • Co-benefits: big picture is challenging • Substantial health benefits from CO2 mitigation strategies via improved AQ • Need for integration: options for harvesting synergies • Coal AQ technologies lock in coal, can undermine alternatives (e.g. renewables, efficiency) • Agriculture: ammonia emissions – nitrous oxide and methane • Methane as a precursor to tropospheric ozone • Tropospheric ozone a potent GHG • Biofuels and black carbon • Diesel: CO2 and PM2.5 NERAM V October 17 2006

9. Air Quality – Climate Change Q. What is the perspective from AQ experts? A. ?????????????????????????????? Our Challenge Tomorrow: • Guidance Document • Recommendations from NERAM Colloquium V NERAM V October 17 2006

10. Engineered interventions to avoid • Aerosols help reduce 25% regional effects of climate change (cooling effect) • Produce more locally based sulphates • NOx scavenges O3: • Encourage more car use to reduce smog These types of decisions best left to a higher authority! NERAM V October 17 2006

11. Actions to Consider • Actions that are ethical, consider environmental justice and lead to a clear environmental and health gain • Need to address more than just the symptoms, but also the underlying causes • Should focus on sources and solutions that produce the biggest benefits NERAM V October 17 2006

12. Does addressing air quality issues through actions that reduce GHG emissions produce a broader suite of benefits and clear outcomes, than addressing climate change by reducing emissions of other air pollutants? 2006 AIR QUALITY CLIMATE CHANGE NERAM V October 17 2006

13. What about 2026? AIR QUALITY CLIMATE CHANGE NERAM V October 17 2006

14. What do we do in 2050 when the Climate Change Dog becomes the [Dangerous] Killer Rabbit? NERAM V October 17 2006

15. 4XCO2 3XCO2 2XCO2 NERAM V October 17 2006

16. UN Framework Convention on Climate Change • Article 2 • “ … stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Dangerous – how much change? Stabilization – at what level? The EU has chosen 2C global warming as the “dangerous” level – only 1.3C more warming. NERAM V October 17 2006

17. The abundance, atmospheric lifetime, and Global Warming Potential of GHGs vary considerably Carbon Dioxide Methane Nitrous Oxide Halo Carbons NERAM V October 17 2006

18. Kyoto and the Inevitability of Climate Change “The overwhelming majority of scientific experts, whilst recognizing that scientific uncertainties exist, nonetheless believe that human-induced climate change is inevitable. . The question is not whether climate will change... but rather how much... how fast, and where” Robert Watson, Chair of IPCC to CoP6 Delegates, The Hague, November 2000 Adaptation is necessary More mitigation is needed Stabilization: 40 Kyotos Needed NERAM V October 17 2006

19. Urgency of Situation:Window is 0-15 years EU: 25% reduction by 2020; Global reductions of 60 to 80% by 2050 NERAM V October 17 2006

20. Canada’s Projected GHG Emissions Business as Usual Projections 2010 Emissions 809 Mt (1999) 699 Mt +23% Mt CO2 equivalent 1990 Emissions 607 Mt BAU Gap 238 Mt 33% above 1990 36 Mt Kyoto Target 571 Mt 6% below 1990 NERAM V October 17 2006

21. Smog Advisories/Alerts Year Advisories Days 1993 1 1 1994 2 6 1995 6 14 1996 3 5 1997 3 6 1998 3 8 1999 5 9 2000 3 4 2001 7 23 2002 10 27 2003 7 19 2004 6 14 2005 31 55 • 2005 • 48 smog alert days • 19 heat-alert/extreme heat-alert days NERAM V October 17 2006

22. OMA Estimates How will climate change affect air quality? NERAM V October 17 2006

23. Heat waves in Canadian cities will become more frequent Number of hot days above 30C Background ambient levels of O3 could increase by 40 ppm Emission increase by 20% by 2050 and 32% by 2080. The annual total number of poor O3 days would increase 4-11 and 10-20 respectively. Air pollution mortality will increase by 20-25% and 30-40% by 2050 and 2080 Number of heat-related deaths will double and triple NERAM V October 17 2006

24. Where do we need to make reductions? NERAM V October 17 2006

25. Transportation Example • Further reduce the emissions of the current transportation system using new and improved technologies • Get more people out of their cars and onto public transit • Change development patterns to slow urban sprawl and to encourage denser development NERAM V October 17 2006

26. Accomplishments? • Low sulphur fuels • Improved technologies • Inspection and maintenance • Gas tax allocation to support transit • Infrastructure renewal • Tax credits for transit passes • Ethanol/biodiesel • CAFE standards • Mercury switch-out • Vehicle retirement NERAM V October 17 2006

27. Pollution Probe: Current Activities Related to Transportation Education and awareness: Clean Air Commute Fuel efficiency National vision and strategy on TDM (Cross Canada workshop series) National conference on commercial goods and freight Merits of mobile emissions reduction credits Application of the net-gain approach to land use planning Alternative fuels – LCA NERAM V October 17 2006

28. Canadian Attitudes Towards the Environment • 10% identified environment as the most important issue facing Canada today • 23% identified air pollution as the most important environmental issue • 4% climate change/global warming • 91% agreed that we have a responsibility to the next generation to do all we can to correct climate change • 77% agreed that Canada must act now on climate change because the risk of waiting is too high NERAM V October 17 2006

29. Thank You NERAM V October 17 2006