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Energy Future Is Coal King or Disappearing?

Energy Future Is Coal King or Disappearing?. Global Competition, Energy Sources, Economic Growth and Human Welfare. World Energy Use by Fuel Source: Energy Information Administration. Global 10-Year Growth Rates of Energy Sources. Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, 2010.

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Energy Future Is Coal King or Disappearing?

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  1. Energy FutureIs Coal King or Disappearing? Global Competition, Energy Sources, Economic Growth and Human Welfare

  2. World Energy Use by Fuel Source:Energy Information Administration

  3. Global 10-Year Growth Rates of Energy Sources Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, 2010

  4. Coal Has Much Less Price Volatility

  5. Rich Countries May Shy from Coal, But Not the Rest of the World:New Coal Plants Coming Online by 2015 U.S. 8 GW Europe 17 GW China 83 GW South Asia 97 GW Elsewhere 44GW New plants will consume 790 million tons coal annually

  6. The U.S. No Longer Drives Energy Markets

  7. U.S. Coal Use a Shrinking Share of Global Consumption

  8. U.S. Manufacturing Decline (and Greater Efficiency) = Less Energy Use; Other Countries Make Up for It

  9. Economic Progress and Electricity (Energy from Coal) Are Highly Correlated

  10. Electricity: People Live Better and Longer Sources: CIA World Fact Book; UN Development Program: Human Development Report

  11. Billions Want What We Take for Granted

  12. 2.5 Billion Burn Wood/Dung for Primary Energy:Bad for Health, Economy, and the Environment World Health Org.: 2.5 million women and children die prematurely annually from breathing fumes from biomass stoves. 3.6 billion people have no access or inadequate access to electricity.

  13. Latent Demand for Electricity in India:Red: No Electricity; Green: Cook with Wood or Dung;Blue: No Refrigeration

  14. International Energy Agency: Coal and Natural Gas Dominating New Electricity Generation

  15. kW Prices of Electricity 2007

  16. Electricity from Coal Dominates Much of Country;These Plants Cannot Easily Change Fuel

  17. Same Old Song; Pipe Dreams Are Not New

  18. Cleaner Coal Possible: 40 Year RecordSource: EPA Electricity from coal up 182% Total Emissions down 42%

  19. Best Hope as of Today: Carbon Capture

  20. King Coal: U.S. Is Saudi Arabia

  21. We’re Number 1!!

  22. Coal Is “Nonrenewable”—So What?

  23. Worried about the Trade Imbalance?U.S. Coal Exports at Highest Level in 20 Years

  24. Why is coal unpopular? CO2 Emissions

  25. Coal is big in Greenhouse gas emissions.Its emission is double that of natural gas per BTU generated.

  26. Main Alternative to Coal: Burn More Natural Gas (less CO2 than coal); “proven” reserves—100 years and growing.

  27. Expanding Natural Gas Use Will Be Costly and Take Decades

  28. Alternative: What About Nuclear? Last plant to open in U.S. was in 1996. One new TVA plant may come online in 2013. DOE permit process takes 4 years; construction takes longer than that. Expensive compared to gas and coal. Political issues, to say the least.

  29. Alternative: Hydro; No CO2 When operating. 6% of total U.S. electricity. 60% of “renewable” electricity. Problem—look at the river → Most greenies hate “big hydro” but think “small hydro” is good. But, small hydro is of little value.

  30. Alternative: Wind turbines “work” but no one wants to live near them; need new transmission lines to get power to market.

  31. Alternative: U.S. Has Lots of Sunshine—Transmission to Market Costly Solyndra aside, solar is likely to become more competitive in some areas as cost is slowly dropping.

  32. Unless we want to freeze (or sweat) in the dark, solar, wind & other “renewables” are irrelevant

  33. Electric Power Research Institute:Generation Technology Options Many trade-offs to consider: Nuclear has highest capital cost per kW (double wind), but life is assumed to be 40 years vs. 20 for wind farm. On-shore wind farm produces at 28-40% of stated capacity; nuclear produces at 90%. When all such factors considered, LCOE is $49-79/MWh for nuclear; $75-138/MWh for wind given today’s technology.

  34. EPRI - Given New Technology:Where do we expect to be in 2025? Coal with carbon capture $85-105/MWh Natural gas with carbon capture $68-109/MWh Nuclear $76-87/MWh Biomass Bubbling Fluidized Bed $80-136/MWh Wind on shore $73-134/MWh Wind off shore $122-147/MWh Concentrating Solar Thermal $116-173/MWh Solar PV $210-396/MWh * Ignoring transmission costs, site-acquisition costs, no subsidies assumed

  35. Conclusion: Traditional Energy Sources Are Here to Stay, Even if the U.S. and EU Do Not Like It Give the U.N. credit—their energy people know that massive energy change means we live in small villages eating our own crops, or live in high rises with minimal transportation—including rickshaws. They endorse that as necessary to stop GW.

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