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Millennium Development Goals

Millennium Development Goals. Jan Vandemoortele UNDP, New York. Three key questions. Is MDG progress on track? Is ‘average’ progress reaching the poor? Are MDGs affordable?. Poverty headcount in developing countries (below $1/day). 16%. Most regions fail to reduce poverty (below $1/day).

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Millennium Development Goals

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  1. Millennium Development Goals Jan Vandemoortele UNDP, New York

  2. Three key questions • Is MDG progress on track? • Is ‘average’ progress reaching the poor? • Are MDGs affordable?

  3. Poverty headcount in developing countries(below $1/day) 16%

  4. Most regions fail to reduce poverty (below $1/day) SSA SA EA LAC MENA

  5. Poverty trends in China

  6. Social progress is slowing down (all developing countries) U5MR NER

  7. MDG progress in 1990s 40% No reliable and comparable data 1990 2000 2015

  8. The poor & ‘average’ progress (ratio of U5MR of bottom to top quintile)

  9. Progress by-passes the poor(children not completing 5yrs of education)

  10. Averages are deceiving • Different ways to meet a target • by improving situation of better-off • by increasing level for worse-off • any combination in-between • Evidence suggests most countries follow top-down approach • Groups that see fastest progress seldom represent the poor

  11. Are MDGs affordable? • Global cost estimates range from $50b-$100b+ per year • Differences depend on: • absolute vs. relative unit costs • marginal vs. average unit costs • regional vs. national average costs • efficiency gains vs. quality costs • savings from synergies • implications of HIV/AIDS • domestic vs. external resources • Globally, MDGs are affordable

  12. MDG Core Strategy MDG Reports Where do we stand? Millennium Project What will it take? How to raise profile and awareness? Millennium Campaign What can we do about them? Operational support

  13. Purpose of MDGR • Public advocacy – constituency • Customise targets • Concise assessment, jargon-free, not prescriptive • Based on existing data & analyses • Involving main partners

  14. Two incorrect conclusions • World is on-track to halving global poverty by 2015 • More growth automatically translates into less poverty

  15. Risk of ‘misplaced concreteness’ • Averages and aggregates help us understand complex realities more easily • But they do not exist in reality, only in the human mind • Risk occurs when unwarranted conclusions are drawn based on deductions from abstractions, not on real observations

  16. Test of our progress “is not whether we add more to the abundance of those who have much, it is whether we provide enough for those who havetoo little” FDR, 1937

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