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Discussion of: “Money and Modern Banking without Bank Runs” (D. Skeie). By: Giovanni Dell’Ariccia (IMF and CEPR). The paper shows that:. Deposit insurance is not necessary to prevent liquidity runs in advanced economies.
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Discussion of: “Money and Modern Banking without Bank Runs” (D. Skeie) By: Giovanni Dell’Ariccia (IMF and CEPR)
The paper shows that: • Deposit insurance is not necessary to prevent liquidity runs in advanced economies. • This contrasts with the classic Diamond-Dybvig multiple equilibria result. • It is interesting from a normative point of view, since most deposit insurance schemes are in advanced economies. • It is written as challenge to deposit insurance, but one could read it as in support (I do!)
Advanced economies need to meet several conditions to avoid runs • Deposits are nominal and in domestic currency. • Well functioning good markets. • Bank liabilities cannot be converted to domestic assets held outside banking system. • There is a frictionless inter-bank market. • Free-floating currency (or closed economy).
Nominal deposits / smooth good markets • In Diamond-Dybvig deposits are real, non-contingent claims on bank’s assets: • Early withdrawals cannot be correctly priced at the margin. • Quantities need to adjust → rationing for late withdrawers. • Potential inefficiency (liquidity runs) • In this paper deposits are nominal claims: • Price adjustments on good markets make their real value contingent on mass of deposits withdrawn (De Nicolo’, JME). • Early withdrawals are correctly priced. • First-best allocation is achieved (no runs).
No currency and smooth inter-bank market • All transactions are settled within the banking system (this where advance vs. developing countries may matter): → aggregate liquidity cannot be drained. → inter-bank market is always “liquid enough”. • In systems with more than one bank, informational asymmetries absent: → banks always willing to lend to solvent but illiquid institutions.
No role for foreign assets/goods • Flexible exchange rate: → central bank will not drain liquidity by intervening. → domestic price of foreign goods adjusts with mass of withdrawals (as long as current account needs to balance).
So, to bring the runs back ... • Make real value of deposits non-contingent on withdrawals. • Get liquidity out of banking system. • Stop inter-bank lending.
These may do (and some are actually out there): • Fixed exchange rate regime. • Sticky prices (?) – Inelastic import prices (?) • Off-shore market for deposits. • Storage of currency outside banking system. • Frictions in the inter-bank market. • Asymmetric information across banks.
Highly recommended read • Very interesting and well-written paper. • Carefully modeled. Could benefit from some further discussion of foreign channel. • Should have more open interpretation of results: pro or contra deposit insurance?