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Shipping Cycles and the China Factor

Shipping Cycles and the China Factor. 2008.4. Long Term Cycles. Seaborne Volume Correlate with World Economy. World GDP. Seaborne Trade Volume. 1973 1 st Oil Crisis. 1979 2 nd Oil Crisis. 1991 Financial Crisis. 1997 Asia Crisis. 2001 Dot.com crisis.

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Shipping Cycles and the China Factor

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  1. Shipping Cyclesand the China Factor 2008.4

  2. Long Term Cycles Seaborne Volume Correlate with World Economy World GDP Seaborne Trade Volume 1973 1st Oil Crisis 1979 2nd Oil Crisis 1991 Financial Crisis 1997 Asia Crisis 2001 Dot.com crisis

  3. The Micro-Mechanism Behind The Trend of BDI/BFI BDI

  4. The Micro-Mechanism Behind The Growths of Dry Cargo and Bulk Fleet BDI Fleet Growth, Volume Growth Source: Clarkson

  5. In Historic Perspective The Seaborne Trade Volume Showing Extreme Changes 800Mt Last 7 years trade grew at 4.9% pa Sea trade fails due to 1979 Oil crisis The pre 1980s trend 1983~2002 growth 3.4% pa Asia Crisis in 1997 .com Crisis in 2001 World Sea Trade In the late 1990s China started to grow much faster than before. Source: Clarkson

  6. B. Shortage of shipping capacity A. Surplus of shipping capacity World Sea Trade Gen cargo Bulk carriers Tankers • 20 years of under-investment in ships 1970s Bubble Deliveries BARS SHOW WORLD FLEET& LINE SHOWS TRADE Source: Clarkson, Martin Stopford

  7. Ton-Miles Grows Faster than Volume % Source: SSY

  8. China GDP Growth %

  9. China Steel Production 500 Mt Per capita steel consumption now about 340 kg, which is close to European levels

  10. World Iron Ore Imports and China’s Share M Tons

  11. China’s Iron Ore Imports Explains the Ton-Miles Growth M. Ton-miles

  12. China’s Coal Trade M Tons

  13. China’s Crude Oil Trade

  14. Expect to see you at World Shipping (China) Summit 2008 Navigating Cross Currents Nov. 6-7, 2008 Dalian, China Jointly-organized by Detailed information at: www.shippingsummit.com

  15. Thank you for your attention! Contact Information: Xiao Lie COSCO R&D Xiaolie@cosco.com Tel: 0086 10 66492615

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