GBTA Washington Update 12 th Annual Legislative Symposium June 24, 2014

1. GBTA Washington Update12th Annual Legislative SymposiumJune 24, 2014

2. W Capitol Hill Is A (Relatively) Small Neighborhood • S • N • Getting To The Hill • E • By Car • Capitol Hill offers few public parking options; street parking is difficult. • The nearest garage is north of the Capitol, by Union Station • Many visitors prefer to arrive by taxi, available throughout the city. • By Public Transportation • For most visitors, the Metro system will prove the best transportation bet. • The Red Line (subway) serves the north side of the Capitol, while the Blue and Orange lines offer two stations to the south • The Metrobus serves various points around the Hill; visit WMATA.com to see detailed maps • By Foot • D.C. is a relatively walkable city. • However, hot and humid weather may make long walks inadvisable during summer months • Rayburn House Office Building • Longworth House Office Building • House • Senate • Union • Station • Metro • (not • on map) • Capitol South Metro • Federal • Center • Metro • Cannon House Office Building • Capitol Visitors Center Entrance • Russell Senate Office Building • Dirksen Senate Office Building • Library of Congress • Jefferson Building • Supreme Court • Library of Congress • Madison Building • Hart Senate Office Building • Sources: Architect of the Capitol, National Journal Research.

3. N The Geography of The Senate Side • W • E • Public, Handicapped Accessible Entrance • Entrance Member/Staff-Only Until 10 AM • Public Non-Handicapped Accessible Entrance • S The Delaware Ave. door is exclusively Member/Staff/Accessible all day • Dirksen Senate Office Building • Russell Senate Office Building • Hart Senate Office Building • First Street NE • Constitution Avenue • Senate Chamber • Understanding Office Numbers • Sources: Bing Maps, National Journal Research.

4. N The Geography of the House Side • W • E • Public, Handicapped Accessible Entrance • Entrance Member/Staff-Only Until 10 AM • Public Non-Handicapped Accessible Entrance • S • House Chamber • First Street SE • Independence Avenue • Rayburn House Office Building • Longworth House Office Building • Cannon House Office Building • Capitol South Metro • S. Capitol Street SE • Understanding Office Numbers • Sources: Bing Maps, National Journal Research.

5. Congressional Control House Makeup by Party 1 201 233 Dem Seat Republican Seat Vacancy Total Seats Democrats: 201 Republicans: 233 Senate Makeup by Party 2 53 45 Dem Seat Republican Seat Total Seats Democrats: 53 Republicans: 45 Independents: 2 Independent Seat Vacancy Source: Office of the Clerk, U.S. House of Representatives; “Illinois Rep. Kelly Takes Seat in House, Replacing Jesse Jackson Jr.,” The Associated Press, April 11, 2013.

6. House Republicans Can Be Considered in Six Factions Six Factions of the Republican Party (Based on Republican Votes on Key Legislation* in 2013) The Deciders Coalition of the Willing Coalition of the Unwilling Voted NO 3 of 5 times Voted YES 3 of 5 times Voted YES 4 of 5 times Voted NO 4 of 5 times Voted YES 5 of 5 times Voted NO 5 of 5 times Source: Cook Political Report, 2014.

7. Obama’s Second Term Cabinet • Top White House Staff • Interior Secretary • Treasury Secretary • Labor Secretary • OMB Director • Secretary of State • AgricultureSecretary • Council of Economic Advisers Chairman • Transportation Secretary • Defense Secretary • Commerce Secretary • Education Secretary • AttorneyGeneral • Energy Secretary • EPA Administrator • CIA Director, Director of National Intelligence • Health and Human Services Secretary • Federal Reserve Board • National Security Adviser • Housing and Urban Development Secretary • Veterans Affairs Secretary • Small Business Administration • Administrator • Homeland Security Secretary

8. Issues Congress Could Consider in 2014 Issues With Deadlines Issues Without Deadlines Tax Extenders: Congress may address expired tax breaks Highway Trust Fund: The government account that pays for highway construction is projected to run out before September Congress Likely to Focus on Must-Pass Bills Before Midterms Immigration Reform: Movement on a bill is possible National Defense Authorization Act: Legislation authorizing Department of Defense operations is seen as a must-pass for Congress; legislators expect to produce a bill by October Export-Import Bank: Congress faces a September 30th deadline for reauthorizing Annual Appropriations: The Ryan-Murray budget deal set overall spending, but lawmakers may attempt to produce an appropriations bill before the fiscal year Healthcare Reform: House Republicans have pledged to suggest an alternative to the Affordable Care Act before November elections, but the Senate is almost certain to fail to take up any measure Income Inequality : Senate Democrats are expected to propose a number of measures aimed at addressing income inequality, such as raising the minimum wage and a gender-pay bill, but the legislation is not expected to advance in a Republican-controlled House Unemployment Benefits: The House and Senate remain stymied on the question of extending unemployment benefits for the long-term unemployed • Analysis • Stalemates between the Republican House and Democratic Senate mean that few bills are likely to pass Congress between now and the end of session, except for those measures that both parties see as a must-pass • Both parties hope to be in a better position to influence the legislative agenda following the November elections, so both may see incentives to delay Congressional action until then Sources: Billy House, “Time is Running Out for Big Bills,” National Journal, April 13, 2014; Bob Litan and Loren Duggan, “What’s On Tap in Congress in 2014,” Bloomberg Government, January 8, 2014.

9. Overall Outlook Possible gain of 5-10 seats Projected Party Composition Shifts Possible gain of 6+ seats • In the House • Odds are that the House will remain stable • Possible Republican gain of 5-10 seats Majority control Majority control • In the Senate • Odds are better than 50/50 that for a Republican takeover • Would be surprised if Republicans didn’t net at least 5 seats, and 6 seats is looking increasingly likely • Many races will swing together, e.g., if Sen. Landrieu (D-LA) loses, difficult to see Sen. Hagan (D-NC) or Sen. Pryor (D-AR) winning

10. Updated June 16, 2014 Competitive Senate Midterm Races MT: In the contest for the seat of retiring Sen. Max Baucus (D), Rep. Steve Daines (R) will face Lt. Gov. John Walsh (D), who has been serving since Baucus left Open Senate Seats Republican Senators Democrat Senators • MI: No longer a safe Democratic seat; both parties are polling well early WA ME MT ND VT OR MN NH Recommendations and detected threats ID SD NY WI MA WY MI RI CT PA IA NE NJ NV NC: Sen. Hagan (D) has watched her polling leads vanish; she will face state House Speaker Thom Tillis (R) in the general election OH UT IL IN DE CO WV MD VA CA KS MO KY NC TN AK: Sen. Begich (D) awaits a challenger from the crowded Alaska primary candidate pool; former Natural Resources Commissioner Dan Sullivan (R) has polled well against Begich AZ OK AR NM SC MS GA AL KY: Sen. McConnell (R) is running neck and neck with Kentucky Secretary of State Alison Grimes (D) LA TX AK FL HI GA: After Sen. Chambliss (R) announced hisretirement, Democrats made this seat a target; rookie Michelle Nunn (D) has raised over $3 million AR: Sen. Pryor (D) faces an uphill battle against Republican opponent Tom Cotton in an increasingly conservative state LA: Sen. Landrieu (D) faces Rep. Bill Cassidy (R) in a race rated a pure toss-up by The Cook Political Report The races identified above are considered competitive by The Cook Political Report based on each jurisdiction’s past election history, polling results, campaign fundraising, candidate quality, and other factors. 10