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Lebanon’s Macroeconomic Outlook

Your Investment Reference. Lebanon’s Macroeconomic Outlook. Macroeconomic Indicators.

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Lebanon’s Macroeconomic Outlook

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  1. Your Investment Reference Lebanon’s Macroeconomic Outlook

  2. Macroeconomic Indicators Slow but positive economic growth characterized 2015 and 2016 despite the surrounding environment. However, growth is set to rebound from 2017 onward following the election of a president and the formation of a cabinet. Source: CAS Source: IMF, BLOMINVEST Bank Source: BDL Source: ABL BLOMINVEST Research Department

  3. Real Sector 50 Some economic indicators witnessed an improvement in 2016 especially real estate and tourism activities, with the exception of the business conditions of the private sector that kept on deteriorating, yet at a slower pace. Source: Markit, BLOMINVEST Research Department Source: Ministry of Tourism *(Excluding Housing and Cars, In $M) Source: BDL Source: Cadastre BLOMINVEST Research Department

  4. External Sector The swap operation by BDL in 2011 positively impacted Lebanon’s external position as revealed by the BoP. Besides the widening trade deficit due to recovering global oil prices, workers’ remittances kept on growing despite the low growth environment in the GCC countries. Source: BDL Source: Lebanese Customs Source: BDL Source: BDL BLOMINVEST Research Department

  5. Banking The healthy Lebanese banking sector posted continued growth in deposits and a stability in the levels of interest rates (with a slight increase in USD deposit rate) Source: BDL, BLOMINVEST Research department BLOMINVEST Research Department

  6. Public Finance Lebanon’s public finances remained weak in 2016, however the government is still managing to get a primary surplus. Public debt remains high and needs to be tackled through reforms, however there are no risks of financing shortages. Source: Ministry of Finance Source: Ministry of Finance Source: ABL Source: Ministry of Finance BLOMINVEST Research Department

  7. Capital Markets Capital Markets kept on mirroring the developments on the political scene. Following a slowdown in activity during 2016, the recent political breakthroughs managed to recover some of the previous losses incurred in the markets. Source: BLOMINVEST Research department Source: BLOMINVEST Research department Source: Reuters Source: Bloomberg BLOMINVEST Research Department

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