Summary of Dr. Jonathan Gruber’s Health Insurance Exchange Modeling

Summary of Dr. Jonathan Gruber’s Health Insurance Exchange Modeling Jeff Bontrager Colorado Health Institute Marketing, Enrollment and Outreach Workgroup (MEOW) Meeting September 21, 2011 bontragerj@coloradohealthinstitute.org

Background and caveats • This presentation was given by Dr. Jonathan Gruber from MIT to the Colorado Health Benefit Exchange Board on Sept 16, 2011 • Data source is the 2008-09 Colorado Household Survey and the Gruber Microsimulation Model • All numbers are estimates, limited to ages 0-64 • The final report, including narrative, methods and assumptions, is planned for release within the next month

Table 1: Colorado Enrollments

Table 2: Estimate of ACA Effect, 2016

Table 3: Summary of Previously Uninsured, 2016 Post-ACA

Table 4: Movements due to ACA: 2016 Note: “-” indicates a movement that is less than 10,000 but greater than 0.

Table 5: Reformed Market Participation and Tax Credit Uptake: 2016

Table 6: Premiums and Actuarial Values for those Remaining on Nongroup: 2016 Note: The changes in this table do not reflect removal of pre-existing conclusions restrictions, reuse of any funds that fund the high risk pool (which is now folded into the reformed market), or reinsurance/risk adjustment/risk corridor mechanisms.

Table 7: Household Budget Effects: 2016

$1,500*

$1,150*

Summary of Dr. Jonathan Gruber’s Health Insurance Exchange Modeling