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A prospective vision of food needs

A prospective vision of food needs. In 2008, a food crisis resulting from several causes, structural and circumstancial International prices easing since october 2008, but not a signal for relief. Structural causes of the crisis are still there (demand especially in Africa / demography).

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A prospective vision of food needs

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  1. A prospective vision of food needs • In 2008, a food crisis resulting from several causes, structural and circumstancial • International prices easing since october 2008, but not a signal for relief. • Structural causes of the crisis are still there (demand especially in Africa / demography). • Strong uncertainties about the conditions of agricultural production : climate change and volatility of markets. • Necessity of a rapid and massive evolution of agricultural economies in the South, and especially in Africa.

  2. Major challenges for the rural economies of developing countries • New models of agricultural production to be developed (North and South) • use of non renewable ressources • soil fertility degraded and equilibrium with forests • availability of water • contribution of agriculture to climate change mitigation • Challenges even bigger in developing countries, especially in Africa

  3. 4.50 4.00 Pays développés 3.50 3.00 Mt/Ha Asie 2.50 2.00 Amériquelatine Caraïbes 1.50 1.00 Afrique sub saharienne 0.50 1998 2004 1992 1986 1980 0.00 1962 1968 1974 Evolution of cereals yields(Source : WDR 2008)

  4. Income per agri-worker(Rural Struct)

  5. Major challenges for the rural economies of developing countries • Important margins of improvment and new prices opportunities = necessary conditions but not sufficient for a inclusive rural growth • Promissing technical innovations (agro-ecology) but still evolving • Organisations and institutions to be build for a better management of markets / transmissions of market signals / reducing volatility (tradable-non tradable) • Modernizing agriculture but still labour-intensive : dynamic demography with « low regime » of employement creation in the cities.

  6. Population rurale 1950=indice 100 420 370 320 270 220 170 120 70 20 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Afrique Asie AmériqueLatine Monde Projections de la population rurale

  7. Yearly increase of labour force

  8. A global partnership • Food security = food production + nutrition + access to food (incomes) • High profile commitment needed • Reversing the long trend decline in attention to agriculture and food security in developing countries • Ensuring better coherence between international institutions and actors, and better coordination between donors based on the Paris/Accra principles

  9. A global partnership • An international « High profile Policy Group » on food security and agriculture • An international panel of experts addressing controversial issues and helping to strengthen evidence-based policy analysis • A re-mobilisation of the international financial community (countries budgets, ODA, FDI, new actors) for agricultural development and safety nets in developing countries.

  10. AFD Strategy for agriculture and rural development: principles • Actions to be conceived and carried out in the long term, in ordre to achieve a sound redefinition of production and growth patterns. Agriculture : a key lever for poverty reduction (WDR 2008). But agriculture abandoned for many years by States and donors • Sustainable management of natural ressources as a cross cutting principle of action. • Inclusion of the actors and taking into account their diverse trajectories :smallholders / family agriculture at the heart of the strategy.

  11. Efficiency of agricultural growth for poverty reduction (MDG) Income increase for 1% growth of GDP (agri. and non-agri) La croissance du PNB provenant de l’agriculture profite principalement aux 30% les plus pauvres de la population

  12. AFD strategy for agriculture and rural development: Three axes • Axis 1 : support policies meant to accompany the necessary transitions, taking into account demography, risks on natural ressources and economic international environment. • Axis 2 : re-invest in food value chains with technical and organisational innovations • Axis 3 : support creation of local enabling environments for agricultural and rural development (user based management, decentralisation, local infrastructures…)

  13. Conception, implementation and evolution of concerted policies • Several fields of action : land tenure, orientation of agronomical research, statistics and information systems, legal framework (definition of contractual links between farmers and other actors, quality standards…) • Capacity building : reconstruction of institutionnal capacities in the public administration and within producers’ organisations. • Concertation : « platforms » of concertation; value-chains interprofessional bodies

  14. Conception, implementation and evolution of concerted policies • Cooperation tools : • technical assistance / long term or expertise • seminars and studies • projects mainly based on subventions (example : Madagascar, Sénégal, « Fond lissage coton ») • donors coordination in the field and at global level Complementarity between regional and national levels : creation of regional markets of agricultural goods by removing tariff between States / example of ECOWAPS

  15. Sustainable and equitable growth of agricultural production and better functionning of markets • Reminder : small holder / family agriculture and multifunctionnality of agriculture • Technical innovations : • agri techniques more respectful of the natural ressources (agro-ecology adapted to several ecologies) • agronomic research : seeds selection and agri techniques / the « double green revolution » / difficulty : extensions services and ownership by farmers • irrigated agriculture : investments in rehabilitation , creation of new capacities, with more economical irrigation techniques and users’based management • transhumant breeding / investments in water ressources for herds

  16. Production of kcal /day / worker (Source : Agrimonde)

  17. Locations of the « PAMPA » project Afrique Sub-saharienne Cameroun Burkina Mali Autres Autres bailleurs Banque Mondiale Banque Asiatique de Dév. FIDA Maghreb Tunisie Maroc Algérie Afrique de l’Est Et Australe Madagascar Kénya Mozambique Autres Réseau PAMPA Maîtrise d’ouvrage MAE – FFEM – AFD Maîtrise d’œuvre principale CIRAD Autres maîtrises d’œuvre Asie du Sud Est Laos Vietnam Cambodge Thaïlande Chine Brésil CIRAD Université de Ponta Grossa

  18. Sustainable and equitable growth of agricultural production and better functionning of markets • Technical innovation not enough / need for enabling policies • Better functioning of agri/food markets : • primary marketing of agrofood products by farmers’organisations / private storage and development of warehouse receipts systems • access to credit : financement of production campaigns (purchase of inputs) / copping with under-capitalisation at fram level • connection to the markets : roads and rural paths with the necessary maintenance systems

  19. Sustainable and equitable growth of agricultural production and better functionning of markets • Cooperation tools : • loans at concessionnal conditions • association of loans (equipments) and subventions for capacity and institution building • innovative financing : equity or quasi-equity funding for agrofood industries having a leverage effect on food production (through supply contracts with farmers cooperatives) • innovative financing to ease access to credit : reducing the risk of banks and micro-finance institutions (credit lines in local currency and /or guarantee funds).

  20. Improving knowledge for better interventions « Intellectual production » is part of the strategy of AFD : • better knowledge of geographical contexts and mechanisms (agronomic and economic) • better measurements of the impacts (direct and indirect) of our projects / evaluations. Recent examples : - study on « Instruments for the management of volatility of agricultural prices » - study on « Food production zones in western Africa »

  21. Working with NGOs Policy dialogue : - consultation of NGOs on our strategic papers - structured dialogue with « Coordination Sud », common platform of French NGOs (trimestrial meeting) - partnership agreements in several fields (water in post-crisis situations, equitable trade…) - seminars on several topics - capitalisation of knowledge (emergency and development, developing countries civil societies…) Financing : - subventions of NGOs projects and pluri annual programmes - co-financing of NGOs projects presented to specific EU windows - since 2007, « innovative sectorial facility » with tenders (examples : post-crisis interventions, water for agriculture, health micro-insurance, Afghanistan).

  22. Working with NGOs Strategic value-added / complementarity between AFD and NGOs - specific expertise - innovative approaches (even experimental approaches) - linkages with local civil societies - capacity of NGOs to reach the poorest Linkage with French civil society International initiatives carried out by non-institutionnal actors

  23. Thank you for your patient attention !

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