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SAMI Strategy & Management Insights

SAMI Strategy & Management Insights. Scenario Planning for long tail high impact events triggered by Global Resource Constraints Gill Ringland November 2013. WEF Global Risks 2013. I mpact. Likelihood (next ten years). Global Scenarios. Community based. Many Hands. Long Hand.

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SAMI Strategy & Management Insights

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  1. SAMI Strategy & Management Insights Scenario Planning for long tail high impact events triggered by Global Resource Constraints Gill Ringland November 2013 www.samiconsulting.co.uk

  2. WEF Global Risks 2013 Impact Likelihood (next ten years) www.samiconsulting.co.uk

  3. Global Scenarios Community based Many Hands Long Hand Virtual connections Geography matters Second HandVisible Hand Washington consensus www.samiconsulting.co.uk

  4. Questions • Which of the WEF risks is most likely to cause a break down of the Washington consensus? • Scarcity driving geopolitical conflict • Cyber attack • Severe income disparity – civil unrest • Complacency – not a WEF risk • Failure of global governance • Climate change • Food scarcity – implications for energy & food • Ocean governance www.samiconsulting.co.uk

  5. Questions: for each scenario • How could you innovate to deal with these? • Security forces expanding into resource management • Water shortages? Crops?humans? use salt water? • Self-sustaining mega-communities – disruptive change in governance – risk of anarchy • Innovations in food supply chain could reduce wastage and disparity, c.f. Water • Energy use as leverage point • Education, health, reduce waste, etc • Innovation needs a context of informed population • THIS IS A TIME OF DISRUPTION www.samiconsulting.co.uk

  6. For more..... If you would like to get our monthly enewsletter eSAMI ---- please go to www.samiconsulting.co.uk. The Report “In Safe Hands? The future of Financial services” is on the Long Finance web site www.longfinance.net Or latest book follows on from “Beyond Crisis” and is called “Here be Dragons” – for details see www.samiconsulting.co.uk. And we run Futures Coaching for the UK Government Office for Science, see www.samiconsulting.co.uk. www.samiconsulting.co.uk

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