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Support of Shaping the Post Kyotot Climate Regime Workshop March, 2009 Budapest

REGIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL CENTER. Implications of Post Kyoto Climate Regime on Turkey. Dr. Oğuz CAN İSTAÇ A.Ş. Sysytem Development Manager. Support of Shaping the Post Kyotot Climate Regime Workshop March, 2009 Budapest. Agenda. Milestones to Kyoto Protocol Responsibility,

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Support of Shaping the Post Kyotot Climate Regime Workshop March, 2009 Budapest

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  1. REGIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL CENTER Implications of Post Kyoto Climate Regime on Turkey Dr. Oğuz CAN İSTAÇ A.Ş. Sysytem Development Manager Support of Shaping the Post Kyotot Climate Regime Workshop March, 2009 Budapest

  2. Agenda • Milestones to Kyoto Protocol • Responsibility, • Capability, • Potential, • Post Kyoto Regime Negotiations reflections to Turkey

  3. Milestones to Kyoto Protocol • Turkey: is an Annex I Party (with special circumstances, which places Turkey in a situation different to that of other Annex I Countries) (Dec. 26/CP.7) Marrakech 9 November 2001 • Date of Convention Ratification: 24 May 2004 • National Focal Point: Ministry of Environment & Forestry • Turkey has acceded the Kyoto Protocol in 16th of Feb., 2009 by law # 5836 (expected to become a party at the end of May) • Turkey: is not an Annex B Party (has not quantified emissions target)

  4. Milestones to Kyoto Protocol Although there was no extreme pressure, asisstance or encouragement to ratify the protocol and without a new sight on the differentiation of countries, Turkey has been ratified the Protocol to show her continous involvement in climate change mitigation effort within the international community.

  5. Responsibility GHG Emissions:1 2004 : 296,6 million ton CO2-e increase compared to1990: % 74 2006: 331,8 million ton CO2-e increase compared to1990: % 95,1 Population:1 72,974 million (population increase speed % 1,31 per annum) GHG per capita:2 Turkey : 4,6 ton CO2-e World average: 7,2 ton CO2-e OECD average: 15,0 ton CO2-e EU-27 average: 10,4 ton CO2-e EU-15 average: 10,7 ton CO2-e Historical Responsibilities ? 1Turkstat 2EC Technical Report-2008-024

  6. Responsibility If Turkey would had been within the EU-29, then would be the 6th largest emitter after in turn in order Germany (1004,8), UK (652,3), Italy (567,9), France (541,3), Spain (433,3), Poland (400,5)2 2EC Technical Report-2008-024, EU 2006 GHG emissions million ton CO2-e excluding LULUCF

  7. Capability GDP per capita3 Turkey : 8.766 US$ OECD average : 31.364 US$ EU-15 average : 31.469 US$ HDI (2005) : 84th over 177 countries 3 OECD Fact Book 2008

  8. Capability Energy Consumption (million tonnes of oil equivalent)4 Turkey : 1,0 toe per capita EU-27 average : 2,4 toe per capita World average : 1,2 toe per capita Electricity consumption per capita5 Turkey : 2500 KWh* EU-27 average : 6500 KWh OECD average : 8000 KWh Electricity Reference Emission Factor: approx. 0,65[tCO2-e/MWh] Motorization rate - cars per 1 000 inhabitants6 Turkey : 75 EU-25 : 463 4 EEA: European Environment Agency 2005 data 5WRI: World Research Institute 6 Eurostat 2004 data * Average increase rate in primary energy demand is 6,2%per annum

  9. Potential Within the period between 1990 and 2006, Turkey implemented significant major shift away from carbon intensive fuels to natural gas, especially for household heating and industrial processes Most of the realized projects can be considered measures with a co-benefit approach. However there is an analysis necessary to figure out the abatement in compare to BAU

  10. Potential • Energy, as the most important sector is accounted 76,7% of total GHG emission having big potential. • Renewable Energy Law, dated10 May 2005, with # 5346 • New incentives on the Parliament agenda to boost Renewable investments • Wind, (333,5 MW in operation, 142,8 MW in construction phase, 1070 MW turbine is ordered) • Solar, • Biomass • Nuclear Power Plant • Energy Efficiency Law, dated 18 April 2007, with # 5627 • Heat isolation standard at buildings TS 825 • Waste (responsible for 9,3% of total GHG emissions ,where 3% of total EU-15 GHG emission results from waste)

  11. Potential • Privatisation efforts in energy production and distribution • Shifting the balance of Transport modes (i.e. increasing capacity of public transportation in cities, increasing service quality in railroad) Turkey’s Energy Dependence on foreign sources in 2007 is 74%

  12. To Do’s • Need for rapid Capacity Building, • Need for international support from UNFCCC and EU, cooperation in region , • Challenge for Integration of climate change policy into national/sectoral policies - Development strategies to shift low carbon economies, • Need for to develop policies and measures, • Need for an impact assessment and adaptation plan, • Need for National communications and national climate action plans in a very short time, • Need for to build up National systems for more accurate and bottom up estimation of GHG emissions (for measurable, reportable and verifiable commitments in future ), • Registery system for both tracking and accounting proposes

  13. The Post Kyoto Negotiations Cold Engine Start: Need for transition phase (incl. learning by doing as the other countries did during 2002- 2009 or till 2012) Accession to the International emission trading including flexibility mechanisms and International funds, will accelerate to capacity building and technology transfer and will not led to negative effect on national development objectives. Redefinition of “developed” and “developing countries” under the Bali Action Plan (BAP) will help to improve implementation of the principle of “common but differentiated responsibilities” suggesting various criteria and parameters for such differentiation including that of GDP per capita and share of world emissions. (Please refer to OECD & IEA report on “Differentiating countries in terms of mitigation commitments, actions and Support” by Karousakis, Guay and Philibert)

  14. Julia DobrolyubovaExpert on Climate Change and Kyoto Protocol Possible differentiation of countries and commitments/actions + TURKEY ? + TURKEY ? + TURKEY ?

  15. Post Kyoto Negotiations • Cap and Trade or Sectoral No-Lose Targets ? • Sectoral approach(incl. Power, Cement, Transportation) seems one of the plausible alternative. • Absolute emission targets? There are many barriers to be solved out such as: • Time, • Data • Institutional structure • Experts,

  16. Post Kyoto Negotiations • Dilemma! • Need for re-definition and differentiation of countries • After 1992, some countries like S. Korea, Mexico has been become OECD member, and nowadays some countries on accession (e.g. Chili). • Ongoing progress and changes in parameters • a) in Sectors • Aviation, • Marine, • LULUCF etc. • b) in GHG gases • 3) Economic recession and its possible effects on the negotiations in Copenhagen • 4) Candidatecountryto EU

  17. REGIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL CENTER Thanks for your attention. Dr. Oğuz CAN ocan@istac.com.tr Support of Shaping the Post Kyotot Climate Regime Workshop March, 2009 Budapest

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