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ICE-POP 2018: Advancing Seamless Prediction for Winter Weather

The ICE-POP 2018 project aims to develop intensive observation campaigns and numerical models to advance seamless prediction for winter weather over complex terrains. Multiple countries are participating in this collaborative effort.

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ICE-POP 2018: Advancing Seamless Prediction for Winter Weather

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  1. Progressand Plan of the ICE-POP2018 (International Collaborative Experiments forPyeongchang 2018 Olympic & Paralympic winter games) SangwonJoo, KwangDeukAhn, GyuWon Lee* and Dong Kyou Lee Numerical Modeling Bureau/NIMS/KMA * Kyungpook National University

  2. History of ICE-POP 2018 • Observation WG meeting (Mar. 2016) • Participants: US NASA, UCLM(Spain), EC(Canada), US CSU • Observation Network(Field Campaign) with participants’ instruments • Build Korea Trust Fund for ICE-POP2018 at WMO(Jun 2016) • NWP physics/Verification workshop (Sep 2016) • Participants(to be): EC, NCAR, KIAPS, NMB/NIMS, FMI • Special session at KMS conference (Oct 2016) • 15 presentations from Korean meteorological Society • 2nd ICE-POP 2018 Workshop (Nov 2016) • 22 participants from overseas and 40 participants from Korea

  3. International Collaboration • Paricipanting contries • Australia, Austria, Canada, China, Finland, Russia, Rep. Korea, Spain, Swiss, United States [ 10 ] • Paricipanting orgnizations • BOM, ZAMG, ECCC, CMA, CAMS, FMI, Roshydromet, KMA, UCLM, EPFL, CIRA, CSU, NASA, NCAR, NOAA, SBU, KNU [ 17 ] • MOA signed organizations • ZAMG (Austria) • ECCC (Canada) • UCLM (Spain) • CIRA/NOAA (USA) • NCAR (USA) • NASA (USA)

  4. Goal & Work flow of ICE-POP 2018 GOAL: Advancing seamless prediction from nowcasting to short-range forecast for winter weathers over complex terrains with intensive observation campaign FDP RDP • Develop Nowcasting & NWP • Nowcating with intensive observation • Snow & cloud Physics • Sub-km NWP • Winter weather monitoring • Winter Nowcasting • Sub km scale NWP products • Winter games guidance Public • Intensive Observation Campaign • High resolution 3D structure • Multi spectral Radar • Microphysics Olympic forecasters IOC, LOC • Contribute a science community in terms of winter weather

  5. Scientific Challenges • To create valuable, reliable and accessible thermodynamical and hydrometeorological Intensive observation data sets for winter weather over a complex terrain through IOP • Ground validation of satellite (i.e. ADM Aeolus GPM snow retrieval) • To understand microphysical processes over complex terrain such as snow size, shape distribution, vertical structure with multi-frequency radar and various microphysical observations (i.e. Radarsite 1 and supersites) with better quality control • To develop comparison study of sub km scale NWP models in mesoscale winter weather condition over complex terrain with dense observation networks to understand predictability of high resolution NWP models • GEM-LAM(0.2K), COSMO(0.17K), MPAS(0.2K), UM (< 0.3K), WRF( ) • To evaluate the benefit of different nowcasting approaches to develop seamless prediction from nowcasting to short-range NWP prediction • MAPLE, INCA, CAN, FINECAST, INTW will be operated to support forecasters • Analysis, prediction and blending method will be evaluated to understand the optimal way to make a seamless prediction with nowcating and NWP prediction • To advance physical processes of snow microphysics, surface processes over land and ocean, and fog/low level cloud processes • The Predicted Particle Properties(P3) scheme will be calibrated with the observation and implemented in WRF and UM • Fog/low level cloud physics in NWP • Land surface model and interaction with atmosphere will be compared

  6. Intensive Observation for the ICE-POP2018

  7. IOP Site Name and information R: Radarsite, S:Sonde site, G: Ground supersite

  8. IOP instruments

  9. Ground Supersite 1 (MH) instruments Cloud radar (W-band) VertiX (9.41GHz) MRR(24GHz) R2G(R2 Geonor) MASC 2DVD POSS Parsivel (EC) (CSU)

  10. Nowcasting and NWP for ICE-POP 2018 * FDP component is colored in Red

  11. Implementation Plan of Observation Campaign Olympic Test Event NOW (5) (5) (11) TEAMR(1) (5) X UCLM(5) (5) Radars X EPFL(5) X KMA(5) (5) KaKuD3R(9) EC Lider(9) EC POSS(9) EC MRR(9) EC Fog equip(9) EC MASC(9) (5) WSBU(9) WEPFL(12) (5) 2016 2017 2018 Supersites UCLM Parsivel(11) (9-11) (5) CSU MASC(11) (5) NASA ground-based snowfall measurement (?) (5) (3) (1) (3) KMA Aircraft(1) Aircraft & Ship (3) (1) (3) KMA SHIP(1)

  12. Implementation Plan of NWP & Nowcasting Olympic Test Event Setup KMA Observation data Sharing system (Sep) Setup(7-12) Developing Operation(10) INCA (12) Nowcasting Improve & evaluation(8) Setup & NRT run(8-12) CAN (7) Setup & support test event (10-12) FINECAST Operation (10) UM(hourly) NWP 2016 2017 2018 GEM-LAM NuWRF FDP MPAS RDP COSMO GRAPES WRF at UCLM

  13. Summary • ICE-POP2018 is endorsed as an official RDP/FDP by WMO at 27 November 2015 • Up to now 10 countries are joined the ICE-POP 2018 to advance seamless prediction from nowcasting to short-range forecast for winter weathers over complex terrains by developing intensive observation network and numerical models. • Intensive observation network was designed to produce reliable thermodynamic and hydrophysical observation • 4 x-band radar, 3 cloud radars, 2 wind liders, and ground instruments (8 supersites) are joined IOP together with operational observation at KMA • Aircraft will cover oceans and upper level hydrometeor observations. • Sea condition will be observed by the ship and satellite. • The data sharing system is installed and will be available before 17 winter for the ICE-POP participants and will be released later. • Several nowcasting systems and high resolution NWP models joined to advance seamless prediction from nowcasting to very-short range prediction • 5 nowcating systems and 7 sub km scale NWP models join the project • DA capability of assimilating the IOP data is under development • Forecast communication method tools are being developed.

  14. Thank you

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