CALESA

1. CALESA Adapting agriculture to climate change - developing promising strategies using analogue locations in Eastern and Southern Africa Josep de Trincheria, Franziska Mannke, Prof. Dr. (mult.) Dr. h.c. (mult.) Walter Leal Research &Transfer Centre „Application of Life Sciences“ Hamburg University of Applied Life Sciences Presentation in thecontextofthe „African Climate Teach-In Day“

2. Outline • 2. CALESA Project • 2.1 Rationale • 2.2 Goals • 2.3 Actors • 2.4 Objectives • 2.5 Outputs • 2.6 Stakeholders • Background • 1.1 Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) • 1.2 Climate variability and change in SSA • 1.3 Climate vulnerability and impacts • 1.4 Rainfed Agriculture in SSA • 1.5 Climate-induced risk 3. Conclusions 4. Discussion

3. 840 million inhabitants (2009) (WDI, 2010). • 52 years life expectancy (2009) (WDI, 2010) -lowest developing countries- • 58% access to improved water resources (WDI, 2009) -lowest developing countries-. • Background 1.1 Sub-Saharan Region (SSA): Socio-economicindicators (I) Figure 1: Political distributionof Sub-SaharanAfrica (NRIC, 2011)

4. 4.4% Internet users (WDI, 2009). • 0.9 m³/capita CO2emissions -lowest developing countries-. • No significant progress toward Millennium Development Goals (MDG): The worst values can be found in child mortality, water and sanitation access, primary education completion, and gender issues (WDI, 2009). • Background 1.1 Sub-Saharan Region (SSA): Socio-economicindicators (II) Figure 2: Human poverty in absolute terms (top) and proportional to the population (Worldmapper, 2011)

5. Africa shows only three (A, B and C) out of the 5 main climate types are present in Africa. By land area, the dominant is the arid B (57.2%), tropical A (31.0%) and temperate C (11.8%) zones (Peel, et al. 2007). . • These changes will be accompanied by an increase in extreme events (floods and droughts) and sea level rise of some 20 to 50 centimeters by 2050, particularly in West Africa (IPCC, 2007). • Inconsistency of predictions and lack of data is common throughout SSA, especially in areas typified by variable rainfall shifting growing seasons (IPCC, 2001). • In total, about a quarter of the continent’s entirepopulation lives in water-stressed regions (UN, 2009). • High temperatures with erratic and intense rainfalls concentrated in very short rainy seasons especially in eastern and southern Africa where the arid climate type dominates (IPCC, 2007). • Temperature is likely to increase at a greater extent than the global average (IPCC, 2007). • Rainfall changes in Africa are generally less consistent predicting increases in equatorial Africa, decreases in the Sahel and southern Africa, and more variability in eastern Africa (IPCC, 2007). 1. Background 1.2 Climate Variability and Change in the sub-Saharan region (I) Figure 3: African climate types zones (Peel, et al. 2007)

6. These changes will be accompanied by an increase in extreme events (floods and droughts) and sea level rise of some 20 to 50 centimeters by 2050, particularly in West Africa (IPCC, 2007). • Inconsistency of predictions and lack of data are common throughout SSA, especially in areas typified by variable rainfall shifting growing seasons (IPCC, 2001). • In total, about a quarter of the continent’s entirepopulation lives in water-stressed regions (UN, 2009). 1. Background 1.2 Climate Variability and Change in the sub-Saharan region (II) Figure 4: Drought and sub-Saharan Africa (Wetec, 2011)

7. Vulnerabilities (According to Bouzaher (2009)): • Population pressure. • Erosion/siltation and change in the hydrological cycle. • Poor socio-economic development. • Continent’s natural fragility (two-thirds of the surface area is desert or dryland). • Significant and fragile terrestrial and coastal ecosystems, and high exposure to natural disasters (especially droughts and floods). • The region’s livelihoods and economic activities are very much dependent on natural resources and rainfed agriculture, which are highly sensitive to climate variability. • Impacts • Although subject to many uncertainties, the impacts of climate change on development in Africa are expected to be diverse and significant (IPCC, 2007). • Decrease of the crop yields in many areas (Bouzaher, 2009; Ngigi, 2009). • Significant decreases in water availability (Bouzaher, 2009). • The degradation of ecosystems. (Ngigi, 2009). • Rise in the intensity of extreme weather events: storms, forest fires, flooding, heat waves and droughts (Bouzaher, 2009). • Background 1.3 Climate Change Vulnerabilities and Impacts (I)

8. This can lead to (Ngigi, 2009): • Severe food shortage and insecurity  hunger and famine. • Water scarcity. • Increase in the fragility of many rural livelihoods and thus can intensify human vulnerability. • Increase in incidences of disease, conflicts and loss of life. • Background 1.3 Climate Change Vulnerabilities and Impacts (II)

9. Figure5: ExposuretoClimate Change Risk in Africa (WDI, 2010) • This can lead to (Ngigi, 2009): • Severe food shortage and insecurity  hunger and famine. • Water scarcity. • Increase of the fragility of many rural livelihoods and thus intensify human vulnerability. • Increase of incidences of disease, conflicts and loss of life. • Background 1.3 Climate Change Vulnerabilities and Impacts (III)

10. According to ICRISAT (2010): • Vital for food security. • 90% of staple food production will continue to come from rain-fed farming systems. • Special challenges to the development of rain-fed farming systems: • Some of the poorest and most vulnerable communities live in SSA (40% of the continent’s population live on less than US$ 1/day and 70% of these are in rural areas). • In spite of its vital food security role for Africa, rainfed agriculture has stagnated due to many inter-related market and policy issues. • Background 1.4 Rainfed agriculture in sub- Saharan Africa (I) • Climate-induced risk.

11. Figure6: Rainfed Agriculture. Source: Miscellanious Internet • Background 1.4 Rainfed agriculture in sub- Saharan Africa (II)

12. According to ICRISAT (2010): • Inherent and associated with the current high level of season-to-season spatial and temporal variability of rainfall in the semi-arid and dry sub-humid tropics. • Constraints imposed by policy failures, extreme poverty and often a degrading resource base. • This situation is likely to be worsened by global warming and its predicted impacts on seasonal rainfall amounts and distribution patterns. • Background 1.5 Climate-induced risk agricultural production (I) • The poor and vulnerable are likely be the most susceptible to changes in climate. This is particularly true for those communities in SSA who rely on rainfed agriculture or pastoralism for • their livelihoods.

13. Figure 7: Projected climate change impacts for agriculture in Africa in potential cereal production (Mappery, 2011) • Background 1.5 Climate-induced risk agricultural production (II)

14. The communities in SSA who rely on rainfed agriculture or pastoralism for their livelihoods are already struggling to cope effectively with the impacts of current rainfall variability. They will face a daunting task in adapting to future climate change due to inherent physical vulnerabilities and socio-economic constraints. Nevertheless, they will need to adapt. • Therefore, a two-pronged approach is required: • In the short to medium term  To help poor and vulnerable farmers to build their livelihood resilience (and hence adaptive capacity) through coping better with current climate-induced risk. • In the medium to longer term Farmers will have to progressively adapt their farming practices to a new set of climate induced risks and opportunities. It is on this that CALESA will place its emphasis: • Adaptation to progressive climate change with special emphasis on increasing temperature. 2. CALESA Project* (* This whole section is according to ICRISAT (2010)) 2.1 Rationale (I)

15. 2. CALESA Project 2.1 Rationale (II) • Analyses of long-term daily climate data confirm that temperature increases are already occurring. • In contrast, such studies seldom, as yet, identify significant changes in rainfall amounts or distribution patterns. • Parallel to this is the finding that the predicted impacts of increased temperatures on crop growth and yield almost always outweigh the associated (and often quite small) predictions of changes in rainfall amounts. • In part, because the current magnitude of the natural season-to-season variability in rainfall amounts and distribution far outweigh the relatively small mean changes in rainfall amounts that are predicted.

16. 2. CALESA Project 2.1 Rationale (III) • Because of this, SSA agriculture should focus on adapting to the more certain and already occurring impacts of increasing temperatures. • The impact of increased temperature on increased rate of crop development is likely to cause significant negative impacts on crop yield. • Reduced crop duration results in less time available for the plant to effectively use available resources, namely, solar radiation and soil water and nutrients for dry matter accumulation and yield production.

17. 2. CALESA 2.2 Actors • Implemented by: • International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT). • In cooperation with : • Kenyan Meteorological Dept (KMD), Kenya. • Kenya Agricultural Research Institute (KARI), Kenya. • Zimbabwe Meteorological Department (ZMD), Zimbabwe. • Midlands State University (MSU), Zimbabwe. • Hamburg University, Faculty of Life Sciences.

18. Goal • Improve the ability of rainfed farmers in the semi-arid tropics of Africa to adapt to progressive climate change through crop, soil and water management innovations and appropriate crop genotype choices. 2. CALESA 2.3 Goal of the project • Purpose • Develop sound adaptation strategies for future temperature increases associated with greenhouse gas emissions using ‘analogue locations’, both as learning sites and as technology testing sites.

19. Using a combination of model-based ex ante analyses and iterative field-based research on station and in farmers’ fields, the project will test potential agricultural adaptation strategies for rainfed agriculture in the semi-arid and dry sub-humid tropics. • This will be achieved through choosing four currently important crop production zones (two in Kenya and two in Zimbabwe) and then identifying corresponding “spatial analogue locations” for each production zone, providing eight study locations in all. 2. CALESA 2.4 Objectives (I)

20. 2. CALESA 2.4 Objectives (II) • “Analogue locations” Locations that have today the climatic characteristics that are expected tomorrow in the four chosen production zones. In essence, pairs of sites will be matched for rainfall but will differ in mean temperature. • A strong element of participatory research with famers within the project locations will ensure that the project activities and outputs remain relevant to their needs and expectations of all the stakeholders.

21. 2. CALESA 2.5 Outputs (I) • Output 1: Four currently important crop growing areas in Kenya and Zimbabwe which comprise (i) cool/dry, (ii) cool/wet, (iii) warm/dry and (iv) warm/wet growing conditions and their temperature analogue locations, identified and fully characterized. • Activity. 1.1: Identifying tools and approaches for delineating important crop growing areas and their temperature analogues.   • Activity 1.2: Collect and analyse climate, soil, crop and socio-economic data necessary to characterise the target locations and establish baseline conditions. • Activity. 1.3 Conduct an ex-ante assessment to quantify the current climate yield gap and risks associated with locally adopted and improved management practices at analogue locations. • Activity 1.4: Document stakeholders perceptions about climate variability and change and their impacts on crop management and production and other livelihood activities at analogue locations.

22. 2. CALESA 2.5 Outputs (II) • Output 2: Through the combined use of long-term daily climate data, statistical software and crop growth simulation models and participatory surveys with farmers, the implications of both current and future (climate change) production risk at the study locations identified. • Activity 2.1 Enhancing the National Meteorological Services (NMS) and National Agricultural Systems (NARS) capacity to build, analyse and utilize high quality climate data. • Activity 2.2 Evaluating the performance of the simulator (APSIM) in simulating temperature effects of growth and yield of important food crops. • Activity 2.3: Using field studies to calibrate cultivar parameters and validate APSIM simulation of temperature effects.

23. 2. CALESA 2.5 Outputs (III) • Output 3: Through iterative field research both on station and in farmers’ fields over a 2-year period, potential crop, soil and water management and crop genotype adaptation options evaluated and adaptation strategies formulated for the target locations. • Activity 3.1: Conduct field trials and collect detailed data required to make a critical assessment of the performance of management options at selected locations. • Activity 3.2: Evaluate the adequacy of management options to cope with the predicted changes in climate. • Activity 3.3: Formulation of climate change adaptation strategies for target locations.

24. 2. CALESA 2.5 Outputs (IV) • Output 4: Strengthening of the institutional capacity (both in understanding climate change impacts and developing effective adaptation responses) through the wide promotion of the project, dissemination of its activities, results and hands-on capacity • Activity 4.1: Project Initiation Seminars in Kenya and Zimbabwe. • Activity 4.2: Project Promotion. • Activity 4.3: Supervision of the 2 PhD students in Zimbabwe and Kenya. • Activity 4.4: End of Project Public Awareness Seminars.

25. 2. CALESA 2.6 Stakeholders • Farmers and farmer groups within the chosen production areas and their analogue locations in Zimbabwe and Kenya. • Staff of the NARS and NMS’s in those two countries who will receive hands on training in climate risk analyses, participatory interaction with farmers and the approaches associated with the use of analogue locations • 2 postgraduate students one from Zimbabwe and one from Kenya under the supervision of Hamburg University who will gain extensive experience on evaluating the gender related aspects of agricultural climate adaptation strategies through the use of analogue locations.

26. Africa • Sub-Saharan Africa countries perform the lowest amongst low-income countries with regard to socio-economic indicators. • Africa is especially vulnerable to Climate Change due to this low performance in such socio-economic indicators and also due to specific physical and socio-economic vulnerabilities common of the continent. Due to these facts, it will be likely impacted very severely by climate change. • Rainfed agriculture is a vital contributor to Africa‘s livelihood and food security. 3. CONCLUSIONS (I)

27. 3. CONCLUSIONS (II) CALESA • CALESA aims to help poor and vulnerable farmers to build their livelihood resilience (and hence adaptive capacity) through coping better with current climate-induced risk at a short term basis and also it places emphasis on helping farmers to adaptation to progressive climate change with special emphasis on increasing temperature at a long-term basis. • Improve the ability of rainfed farmers in the semi-arid tropics of Africa to adapt to progressive climate change through crop, soil and water management innovations and appropriate crop genotype choices by developing sound adaptation strategies for future temperature increases associated with greenhouse gas emissions using “analogue locations”, both as learning sites and as technology testing sites. • ve

28. Is Climate Change uncertain? • Is it reasonable to adapt to it? • At which scale should be carried out the adaptation to Climate Change? • Should be Climate Change impacts tackled in cooperation no matter who is suffering the effects? • Are all the problems that Africa suffers caused by a low level of economic development? • How could the vulnerability to Climate Change of the Sub-Saharan Africa be reduced? How could their resilience be improved? 4. DISCUSSION

29. BOUZAHER, A., ET AL., 2009. Making Development Climate Resilient: A World Bank Strategy for Sub- Saharan Africa. 46947-AFR. World Bank. • ICRISAT, 2010. Adapting agriculture to climate change: Developing promising strategies using analogue locations in Eastern and Southern Africa. Project proposal submitted to “Bundesministerium für wirtschaftliche Zusammenarbeit und Entwicklung (BMZ)” –unpublished- • IPCC, 2001. Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of the Working Group 1 to the Third Assessment Report of the IPCC. [Houghton et.al. (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. UK. 881 pp. •  - IPCC, 2007. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group 1 to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Chapter 11. Regional Climate Projections. [Solomon, S., D. Quin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (Eds)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK. 996pp • Mappery, 2010. http://mappery.com/searchmap.php?locLat=&locLong=&kw=africa&location=(19th April 2011) • Ngigi, S.N. 2009. Climate Change Adaptation Strategies: Water Resources Management Options for Smallholder • NRIC, 2011. http://www.nric.net/pub_project/proj_pubsearch.cfm?SearchPage=AFR&Searchtopic=GIS(19th April 2011) 5. REFERENCES (I)

30. PEEL, M.C., FINLAYSON, B.L. and MCMAHON, T.A., 2007. Updated world map of the Köppen-Geiger climate classification. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 4(2), pp. 439- 473 • UN. (United Nations) 2009. Millennium Development Goals Report 2009. http://www.un.org/millenniumgoals/pdf/MDG%20Report%202009%20ENG.pdf(19th April 2011) • Wetec, 2011. http://www.wetec.co.za/article.php?a_id=5 • -WDI, 2010-2011. Regional fact sheet: sub-Saharan data 2009 http://data.worldbank.org/region/SSA(19th April 2011) • -WDI, 2009. Regional fact sheet: sub-Saharan data http://data.worldbank.org/(19th April 2011) • -Worldmapper, 2011. Human Poverty Map http://www.worldmapper.org/posters/worldmapper_map174_ver5.pdf(19th April 2011) 5. REFERENCES (II)

31. THANK YOU VERY MUCH Josep de Trincheria PhD candidate at the Research and Transfer Centre "Application of Life Sciences" at Hamburg University of Applied Sciences (HAW) and the Centre for International Business and Sustainability (CIBS) at the London Metropolitan University. E-mail: josepmaria.detrincheriagomez@haw-hamburg.de Research and Transfer Centre "Applications of Life Sciences“, Hamburg University of Applied SciencesFaculty of Life Sciences, LohbrueggerKirchstraße 65, 21033 Hamburg, GermanyTel.: +49-40-42875-6311, Fax : +49-40-42875-6079