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Chapter 9 Unemployment and Stagflation. These slides supplement the textbook, but should not replace reading the textbook. What is the labor force?. All non-institutionalized individuals 16 years of age and older who are either working or looking for work. Who is unemployed?.
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Chapter 9Unemploymentand Stagflation These slides supplement the textbook, but should not replace reading the textbook
What is thelabor force? All non-institutionalized individuals 16 years of age and older who are either working or looking for work
Who is unemployed? Anyone 16 years of age or older who is actively seeking employment
What is the unemployment rate? The number of unemployed individuals expressed as a percentage of the labor force
How do we measure unemployment? The number of unemployed divided by the labor force
Who measures unemployment? The Bureau of Labor Statistics surveys 60,000 households each month
What is covered employment ? Employment that qualifies for full benefits
What is adiscouraged worker? A person who has dropped out of the labor force due to a lack of success in finding a job
Are discouraged workers considered a part of the labor force? No, people who quit looking for work are not considered a part of the labor force
What aboutpart-time workers? Part-time workers are considered fully employed
What is underemployment? A situation in which workers are overqualified for their jobs or work fewer hours than they would prefer
What is the labor force participation rate? The ratio of the number in the labor force to the adult population
What percentage of the labor force is female? Almost half
What are the types of unemployment? • Frictional unemployment • Structural unemployment • Seasonal unemployment • Cyclical unemployment
What isfrictional unemployment? Unemployment that arises because of the time needed to match job seekers with job openings
Why will people be looking for work even in the best of times? • school graduates • job advancement • downsizing • weak markets
What isstructural unemployment? Unemployment that arises because: • the skills demanded by employers do not match those of the unemployed • or the unemployed do not live where the jobs are
What isseasonal unemployment? Unemployment caused by seasonal shifts in labor supply and demand
What iscyclical unemployment? Unemployment that fluctuates with the business cycle, increasing during recessions and decreasing during expansions
What is full employment? The level of employment when there is no cyclical unemployment
What is considered full employment? 4 to 6% unemployment is considered full employment
Why 4 to 6%? Because even in the best of times some people are always looking for work
What would make unemployment increase beyond 6% Excessive inventories
What is the current unemployment rate? http://www.forecast-chart.com/forecast-unemployment-rate.html
Is the unemployment rate valid? Yes, as long as it is calculated consistently, we can get an accurate comparison from one time period to the next
What was the unemployment rate at the worst of the Great Depression? In 1932 there was 25% unemployment
What caused the buildup of excessive inventories in the late 1920’s? Business owners keeping prices high and wages low
What caused the severity of unemployment in 1932? The Smoot Hawley Tariff Higher taxes Decrease of money supply
What are the two types of fiscal policy? Discretionary Automatic stabilizers
What are failings of discretionary fiscal policies? • Time lags • Knowing the multiplier • Politics – world viewpoint • Structural changes • Accurate forecasting • International events • Ignorance of economics
What are some recent laws that change the economy structurally? • Health care bill (2700 pgs) • Financial Reform bill (2100 pgs) • Consumer Financial Protection Bureau • Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act (FATCA)
How does the Health Care Bill Work? • Must cover everyone who applies • Everyone must purchase insurance or pay a fine ($750 individual $2,250 per family) • Companies with 50+ employees must offer health insurance or $750 per worker
How does the Financial Reform law protect big business? Identifies which nonbank financial institutions might cause instability if they fail – if so stringent regulation by the Fed in exchange for protection
Which firms can get preferential treatment? Participants in rent seeking leading to a symbiotic relationship between politicians and business
What is the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau? • Established by the Dodd-Frank Financial Reform law • Under the Fed but not responsible to the Fed • Impose rules on banks • Not approved by Senate • Receive 10% combined earnings of the Fed
How does FATCA Work? Foreign banks must identify Americans and provide financial information to the IRS or face a 30% of the banks U.S. income
What affect of big government onnational debt? • 40% of national budget is borrowed money • 70% of federal securities are purchased by the Fed
What are unemployment benefits? Cash transfers provided to unemployed workers who actively seek employment and who meet other qualifications
What is thePhillips Curve? Shows an inverse relationship between inflation and unemployment
What is stagflation? Unemployment and inflation increase at the same time
Why is stagflation a dilemma for policy makers? By using typical Keynesian tools whatever you do to fight one problem the other gets worse
What is a conflict? Fiscal and monetary policies can move in opposite directions
What is the Full Employment and Balanced Growth Act of 1978? Mandated the Fed to ensure full employment and stable prices
What is the cycle imposed by monetary and fiscal policies? Choices are made and then reversed as each problem gets better and worse again
Decrease in Supply Early 1970s Higher Prices and More Unemployment S' S P2 P1 D 0 Q2 Q1
What caused the supply curve to shift to the left in the early 1970s? OPEC Unions
What is fine tuning and stable policy settings? • Demand management • Policy rules
What is the difference in opinion concerning the equilibrium? • Fine tuning – less than full employment equilibrium • Rules – full employment equilibrium
What happened in 1980-1981? • President Reagan lowered taxes on business • Paul Volcker, chairman of the Fed, decreased the money supply for a long time
What agreement between those who favor rules and a more active approach? • Attention to lag effects • Policy stability • Long term effects