The Resilience Challenge: Playing the World Cup!

1. Opening Address Greg Bourne CEO WWF-Australia and Chair CERF Reference Panel The Resilience Challenge Playing the World Cup! Greg Bourne CEO WWF-Australia

2. Agenda • The State of the World and Overshoot • Continually missing thresholds • Politics, climate change and courting thresholds • Procrastination and “Good Enough” tools • The Choice

3. Drivers of biodiversity loss growing in intensity • Most direct drivers of degradation in ecosystem services remain constant or are growing in intensity in most ecosystems

4. Overshoot into ecological debt WWF Living Planet Report 2008

5. Overshoot and collapse?

6. How resilient are we? One scenario: A more likely scenario: The Carrying Capacity of the Planet Overshoot The Carrying Capacity of the Planet Collapse The Ecological Footprint of Humanity The Ecological Footprint of Humanity 1990 2100 1990 2100 “Smooth landing” “Overshoot and collapse” Fig.4. Overshoot and collapse – in principle J.Randers/Futures 40 (2008) 853-864

7. Policy relevant “Tipping Elements” in the Earth’s Climate System

8. Tipping elements and thresholds! Cold Warm In and out of ice ages – last couple of millions of years oscillating every 70,000 years or so! Hot

9. Loss of each “tipping element” increases the risk of passing thresholds Tipping elements and thresholds! Cold Warm Hot

10. Tipping elements and thresholds! Cold Warm Loss of each “tipping element” increases the risk of passing thresholds Hot

11. Tipping elements and thresholds! Cold Warm Loss of each “tipping element” increases the risk of passing thresholds Hot

12. Tipping elements and thresholds! Cold Warm At some point we trigger runaway global warming Hot Overshoot and collapse to a new stable state?

13. Agenda • The State of the World and Overshoot • Continually missing thresholds • Politics, climate change and courting thresholds • Procrastination and “Good Enough” tools • The Choice

14. 1992 Nothing left to catch 1990 Harris Report 1990-91 Ministry (DFO) Mid 1980s eg inshore fishermen 1986 Keats Report Canada and Cod Discontinuity STOCKS STOCKS Probabilistic error bar 5. Cod Collapse 1. External Warnings 2. Expert Warnings 3. Expert Consensus 4. Rejection due to cost TIME

15. 200? Nothing left to catch 2000 ICES assessment 2001 EU Council of Ministers by 1990s environment groups 1993-6 Shephard, Cook Report North Sea and Cod Discontinuity STOCKS STOCKS Probabilistic error bar 5. Cod Collapse 1. External Warnings 2. Expert Warnings 3. Expert Consensus 4. Rejection due to cost TIME

16. 5.Total ice sheet loss? 1. External Warnings 2. Expert Warnings 3. Expert Consensus 20?? 2007 IPCC 4AR by 1980s Scientists NGOs 1990 IPCC 1St Assesment Report Arctic Ice Cover Discontinuity AREA Probabilistic error bar 4. Rejection due to cost TIME

17. World GDP and Traded Resource Needs Discontinuity Probabilistic error bar Probabilistic error bar VOLUME AND PRICE 1. External Warnings 2. Expert Warnings 2008-10 by 1970s Limits to Growth 2007-8 Stern Garnaut et al ?

18. Agenda • The State of the World and Overshoot • Continually missing thresholds • Politics, climate change and courting thresholds • Procrastination and “Good Enough” tools • The Choice

19. Unravelling trends, predicting discontinuities Reinforcing events Probabilistic error bar ISSUE Discontinuity Detracting event TIME

20. Climate Change: Public awareness and concern HIGH Jobs Health Education Law and order Heightened awareness IMPORTANCE OF CLIMATE CHANGE Bushfires Drought Heightened public concern Copenhagen + Sceptics Erosion of importance LOW TIME

21. Climate change What are the best defensive interventions ? What are the best offensive interventions? It is unacceptable to wait until you know for sure! “All science is always provisional” (Karl Popper) The probabilities are now too high to ignore. Politicians may be about to act! ISSUE Discontinuities, what type, impact, magnitude and probability? TIME

22. Political action lags societal concern Law and regulation enacted Heightened confidence Leave well alone HIGH PROPENSITY TO ENACT At the stroke of a pen! A large risk to business is when politicians make up their minds and then act! LOW TIME

23. Lib Rudd Government Nat Grn Lab Con Lib What next? Nat Grn Here??? Here or Propensity to really act on Climate Change Lib Lab Howard Government Nat Grn Lab High Low Conservative Progressive

24. Not to decide to win ..is to decide to lose! But possibly a gain in world GDP -1 to 2% GDP loss New Sustainability Paradigm Work for Global Climate Treaty to stay below a 2oC rise BAU defaults to societal, economic and environmental breakdown. A severe procrastination penalty Keep on as Business As Usual (BAU) But with Runaway Climate Change Deliberately IGNORE the climate challenge and try to “ACHIEVE ADVANTAGE” in a breakdown world At least -20% GDP loss Societal, economic and environmental breakdown

25. Not to decide to win ..is to decide to lose! A Transformed, Productive and Adapted Australia A Sustainable Australia in a Sustainable World Work for real reductions 25% by 2020 & a Global Deal BAU is procrastination. If copied around the world it quickly defaults to societal, economic and environmental breakdown Keep on as Business As Usual (BAU) But with Runaway Climate Change Deliberately IGNORE the climate challenge and try to “Achieve Advantage for Australia” in a breakdown world Overshoot and Collapse An Impoverished, Environmentally Unproductive Continent

26. Agenda • The State of the World and overshoots • Continually missing thresholds • Politics, climate change and courting thresholds • Procrastination and “Good Enough” tools • The Choice

27. Procrastination? Procrastination? Data more than enough to make a defendable decision! Decision Window Data sufficient to avoid major errors Learning Period Time doing research and positioning for decisions

28. “Good Enough” tools

29. “Good Enough” tools

30. Avoiding the tip! • Elements can be identified which have the potential to tip. (You can see other stable states and possible thresholds.) • Decisions taken within a “Political Time Horizon” can determine what happens. (There is still time to have an effect.) • The time to observe change plus the time to trigger it lie within an “Ethical Time Horizon”.(Events too far away have little chance of influencing today’s decisions) • A significant number of people care about the consequences should an element tip. (A significant change in human welfare could occur or part of the biosphere could be significantly disrupted.)

31. Agenda • The State of the World and Australia • Continually missing thresholds • Politics, climate change and courting thresholds • Procrastination and “Good Enough” tools • The Choice

32. If we choose to lose! “The phenomenon of overshoot and collapse – and the possibility of global collapse – is still relevant and worthy of study. Global collapse triggered by ever growing emissions of greenhouse gases is still conceivable in the first half of the 21st century, because of the unfortunate combination of global decision delays and self-reinforcing feedback in the climate system. Interestingly it may prove difficult to verify that global collapse did take place—even if it did, and even after the fact. Global collapse – defined as a situation where more than one billion people lose one half of what they hold dear in less than 20 years – may well be hidden from the headlines and the history books. J.Randers/Futures 40 (2008) 853-864

33. If we choose to lose! The 21st century is more likely to be described as a period of intense local strife, institutional breakdown, regionalization and general malaise. The root cause – humanity overstepping an environmental limit – may well be lost in the clutter of historical detail. Global Collapse could remain fiction, even if it proved to be fact.” J.Randers/Futures 40 (2008) 853-864

34. If we choose to win! We must understand and incorporate the concepts of resilience thinking into our political, economic and social structures. We must start at the highest level of the system in which we might want to intervene. On Climate Change the geopolitical system and the biophysical system are intimately inter-related and should be seen as one! Decisions must be taken within the “political time horizon”. Enough people must care about a positive outcome in order for politicians to have the courage to take action!

35. Opening Address Greg Bourne CEO WWF-Australia and Chair CERF Reference Panel The Resilience Challenge Playing to win! Greg Bourne CEO WWF-Australia