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Presentiment The retro-causality debate

Presentiment The retro-causality debate. Experimental approaches And Theory. Dick Bierman, University of Amsterdam Towards a science of Consciousness, Stockholm, May 3-7, 2011. Synopsis of this talk. The experimental precursor ‘Presentiment’ Method & Results Bems approach

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Presentiment The retro-causality debate

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  1. Presentiment The retro-causality debate Experimental approaches And Theory Dick Bierman, University of Amsterdam Towards a science of Consciousness, Stockholm, May 3-7, 2011

  2. Synopsis of this talk • The experimental precursor ‘Presentiment’ • Method & Results • Bems approach • Method & Results, example retroactive facilitation of recall • Criticism • Statistical • Ontological • CIRTS • Consciousness Induced Restoration of Time Symmetry • New experiments • Necker Cube: retroactive interference • Retroactive recognition Bem, D. (2011). Feeling the future, Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 100, 407-425. 9 experiments suggesting retrocausal effects.

  3. Presentiment a feeling about an event in the future …

  4. 150 msec 7 sec Fixation stimulus BlankScreen Emotion Study (1999) Globisch, J., Hamm, A.O., Estevez, F., and Ehman, A. (1999). Psychophysiology, 36, pp. 66-75. 6850 msec response Skin Conductance anticipation time

  5. Erotic Calm Published Results Baseline had been set at stimulus-onset All signals are clamped to 0 there.

  6. Erotic Anomaly Calm Results re-analysis raw data Baseline set at -7 seconds stimulus

  7. Presentiment • Anticipatory physiology triggered by ‘future’? • Simple stimulus response paradigm • Comparing physiology within subjects between conditions e.g. anticipation of picture, random emotional or neutral

  8. Presentiment variables • Dependent Variables • Skin Conductance • HR • EEG, CNV • BOLD • Blinks, pupil dilation, eye movement • Independent Variables • Pictures, sounds, shocks, slotmachine

  9. Presentiment Meta-analysis • 37 studies, 15 different main authors • Mean effect size: 0.29 • Combined p <10^-9 • Filedrawer fail safe: 670 • Gambler’s fallacy • Mossbridge et al (2011). In press.

  10. Bem’s approach • Behavioral measures • No physiology because of global replication • Reversed standard Psychological Paradigms • Manipulation after the measurement • Decision making • Habituation • Affective Priming • Retroactive memory facilitation

  11. Procedure retroactive facilitation of recall 3. Practice exercise 2.Surprise Free Recall Carpenter To which category belongs To which category belongs 1.Visualize words …........................ Carpenter Random subsample of words

  12. Results Bem studies • Hypothesis Retroactive Facilitation of Memory • Improved recall performance on words that got later extra exercise. • Results Retroactive Facilitation of Memory • (N=150) mean effect size: 0.30 (p<0.01) • Results all 9 studies • All Bem studies mean effect size: 0.22 (p<10^-10)

  13. Criticism • Statistical • Using Bayesian stats the null hypothesis is still to be preferred (Wagenmakers et al, 2011)….. • Over-analyses are not corrected for…. • Combination of experimental results is not allowed…. • Theoretical • Temporal Causality violation is not allowed……

  14. CIRTS • Consciousness Induced Restoration of Time Symmetry • Symmetries in physics • In EM theory • Retarded and Advanced Solution • Initial & Boundary conditions • Conscious information processing as boundary condition restores time symmetry • Coherence to account for individual differences

  15. Procedure retroactive facilitation of recognition 4. Extra exercise 3. Recognition Test Carpenter Hammer Trousers …. Learn these words Carpenter Did you see this word before? 2.Filler task . • Attention • task Carpenter Random subsample of words

  16. Retro-recognition results

  17. Necker Cube study:retroactive interference

  18. The Necker Cube experiment Change randomly into opaque Top or Bottom view interference Top view is experienced Top view duration time Second button press when experience switches First button press

  19. Retroactive interference Results Followed by: (difference = 129, p<0.03) N=153 Effectsize = 0.17

  20. Results split for experiment

  21. The paradoxes • Formally RetroCausality equivalent with bw time travel. • Formally Time Symmetry predicted • But ……. philosophical ‘grandfather like’ paradoxes • Synchronicity protection postulate (Hawkins) • Never allow time travel near grandfather • Never allow psi to become useable.

  22. Conclusion • Retrocausality is physically not impossible • See also Helmut Schmidt in Foundations of Physics • Empirical evidence needs independent replication. • But replication runs against the ‘Synchronicity Protection’ • Experiments have to be set up to avoid paradoxes (can’t use the information from the future)

  23. Thanks • The Amsterdam & Groningen Universities • Bial Foundation • Eva Lobach, Stephen Whitmarsh, Jacob Jolij, Victor Lamme and many students

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