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POPULATION SIZE. PHLOX. 10. 11. N = f (B, D, I, E). POPULATION GROWTH TRENDS. I) STEADILY INCREASING POPULATIONS. Geometric Growth. Exponential Growth. 1) Pulsed Reproduction 2) Non-Overlapping Generations 3) Geometric Rate of Increase (. 1) Continuous Reproduction
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POPULATION SIZE PHLOX 10 11 N = f (B, D, I, E)
I) STEADILY INCREASING POPULATIONS Geometric Growth Exponential Growth 1) Pulsed Reproduction 2) Non-Overlapping Generations 3) Geometric Rate of Increase ( 1) Continuous Reproduction 2) Overlapping Generations 3) Per Capita Rate of Increase (r) λ ) Figs. 11.3, 11. 6 in Molles 2008
UNLIMITED POPULATION GROWTH A: (Geometric Growth) Fig. 11.3 in Molles 2008
Geometric Growth: Calculation of Geometric Rate of Increase (λ) Nt+1 λ = ______________ N t
Calculating Geometric Rate of Increase (λ) N0 = 996 8 N 1 = 2,408 Phlox drummondii λ =
Geometric Growth: Projecting Population Numbers N0 = 996 N 1 = 2,408 8 λ = 2.42 N2 = Phlox drummondii N5 =
STEADILY INCREASING POPULATIONS Non-Continuous Reproduction (Geometric Growth) Nt = Noλt Fig. 11.3 in Molles 2008
Problem A: The initial population of an annual plant is 500. If, after one round of seed production, the population increases to 1,200 plants, what is the value of λ?
Problem B. For the plant population described in Problem A, if the initial population is 500, how large will be population be after six consecutive rounds of seed production?
Problem C: For the plant population described above, if the initial population is 500 plants, after how many generations will the population double?
UNLIMITED POPULATION GROWTH B: (Exponential Growth) Fig. 11.7 in Molles 2008
UNLIMITED POPULATION GROWTH B Exponential Growth (Rate of Population Growth) dN dT dN ___ = Rate dT
EXPONENTIAL POPULATION GROWTH: Rate of Population Growth dN ___ dT dN ___ dT dN ___ dT Fig. 11.6 in Molles 2006
EXPONENTIAL POPULATION GROWTH: Rate of Population Growth Population Size dN __ rmax N = dT Rate of Population Growth Per Capita Rate of Increase
Meaning of r rmax = b - d b = per capita bird rate (= births per individual per day) d = per capita death rate (= deaths per individual per day) rmax = per capita rate of increase (individuals per individual per day)
EXPONENTIAL POPULATION GROWTH: Predicting Population Size dN __ rmax N = dT r t Nt = No e max (e = 2.718)
Problem D. Suppose that the Silver City population of Eurasian Collared Doves, with initial population of 22 birds, is increasing exponentially with rmax = .20 individuals per individual per year . How large will the population be after 10 years? After 100 years?
Problem E. How many years will it take the Eurasian Collared Dove population described above to reach 1000 birds? ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LN(AB) = B LN(A) LN(e) = 1 LN(AB) = LN(A) + LN(B) LN(A/B) = LN(A) – LN(B)
Problem F. “Doubling Time” is the time it takes an increasing population to double. What is the doubling time for the Eurasian Collared Dove population described above?
Problem E. Refer to the Eurasian Collared Dove population described earlier. How fast is the population increasing when the population is 100 birds? How fast is the population increasing once the population reaches 500 birds?
Problem F.How large is the Eurasian Collared Dove population when the rate of population change is 5 birds per year? When the rate of population change is 20 birds per year?
LOGISTIC GROWTH: Rate of Population Change Fig. 11.11 in Molles 2006
LOGISTIC GROWTH: Carrying Capacity Carrying Capacity (K): 82 N T Sigmoid Curve:
LOGISTIC GROWTH: Rate of Population Change dN ___ dT (Logistic Population Growth) Figs. 11.11 in Molles 2006.
LOGISTIC GROWTH: Rate of Population Change dN N ) ( r max N - 1 ____ = K dT “Brake” Term
LOGISTIC GROWTH: Predicting Population Size
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