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Low-Level Circulation in the NSIPP-1 AGCM DWG Model Runs Scott Weaver GEST/GMAO

Low-Level Circulation in the NSIPP-1 AGCM DWG Model Runs Scott Weaver GEST/GMAO. NSIPP. NARR 1979-2005. Springtime GPLLJ insensitive to SST anomaly Large spread during Summer and Fall Peak month sensitivity. July important?

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Low-Level Circulation in the NSIPP-1 AGCM DWG Model Runs Scott Weaver GEST/GMAO

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  1. Low-Level Circulation in the NSIPP-1 AGCM DWG Model RunsScott Weaver GEST/GMAO

  2. NSIPP NARR 1979-2005

  3. Springtime GPLLJ insensitive to SST anomaly • Large spread during Summer and Fall • Peak month sensitivity. July important? • PcAw has negative V850 response during August. A classic GPLLJ month in observations • Tropical only GPLLJ response exhibits less spread • PnTAc and TPwAn are only slightly above neutral run • JAS shows no difference between PnTAw & TPcAn

  4. Magnitude of the spread in the GPLLJ response sensitive to latitude • Relative magnitudes still intact • Response to tropical only SST patterns closer to neutral run

  5. Precipitation evolution shows similar characteristics as GPLLJ • Exception in Spring • SST anomaly influences timing of peak Precipitation • Summertime relative magnitudes are similar to those in the GPLLJ • (Upper Panel) Green is “wet” run (strongest jet) & red is “dry” run (weakest jet)

  6. PcAw PwAc 50 year Monthly Means V850exp – V850ntrl SD(V850exp) • Mean PcAw (-V850) signal large in Southern GPLLJ region • Mean PwAc (+V850) signal not as large in Southern GPLLJ region • Mean PwAc (+V850) signal northward evolution lags PcAw • More confidence in the “dry” run

  7. Conclusions • GPLLJ shows interesting responses to the various prescribed SST anomalies. • GP Precipitation shows similar seasonal evolution and spread with the exception of spring • Timing of peak month (June or July) of GPLLJ and precipitation is sensitive to prescribed SST anomaly • Signal is stronger in the southern GPLLJ region and in the “dry” PcAw run • Future Work: • Connectivity to GP precipitation • Influence of large scale circulation variability (i.e.,Teleconnections/ Bermuda High)

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