The Evolution of the Internet: From Knowledge to Innovation

1. 인터넷, 발전 과정 권혁철

2. Jim Clark & Alvin Toffler 지식이 부다!!! • http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_H._Clark • http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alvin_Toffler • 부에 대한 개념 변화

3. James H. Clark • 고등학교 중퇴 후 해군 근무, 야간 대학에서 수업을 듣고, University of New Orleans에 입학 후 물리학 학사, 석사, 유타대학 컴퓨터 박사(1974) • University of California, Santa Cruz고수(1979), Stanford 대학 전기과 교수 (1982) • Geometry Engine개발, Sicon Graphics, Inc.설립(1980), production of Hollywood movie special effects에 사용, 1990년 퇴출 • Clark and Marc Andreessen, the co-creator of the World Wide Web browser Mosaic, founded Netscape.(1994) • Healtheon, with the original WebMD to form the current WebMD Corporation (1998) • myCFO - a company to help wealthy individuals manage their fortunes (1999) and sold to Harris Bank in late 2002 • Chairman and financial backer of network security startup company Neoteris, founded in 2000, which was acquired by NetScreen in 2003 and subsequently by Juniper Networks

4. James H. Clark • Director and investor in biotechnology company DNA Sciences, founded in 1998, which went bankrupt and was acquired by Genaissance Pharmaceuticals Inc. in 2003, Donated $10 million to Stanford University for bio-science • In the Fall of 2005 Clark, along with David Filo of Yahoo!, each donated $30 million to Tulane University for merit based scholarships to provide education to deserving students regardless of financial situation.

5. Innovation Now: Five Historical Cycles …

6. 기술진보, 점점 빨라지는 속도, 사회적 영향

7. The Law of DisruptionSocial, political, and economic systems change incrementally, but technology changes exponentially. CHANGE • Technology Change • Social Change • Business Change • Political Change Source: Unleashing the Killer App By: Larry Downes, Chunka Mui TIME Slide Courtesy, Don Pearson, VP, Government Technology

8. 정보통신 분야에서 성공한 기업 • HP: 최초 벤처 기업 • IBM : 기계에서 지식서비스업으로 • SUN : 개방형 구조로 서버 시대에 성공, 그후 변화에 실패 • MS : IBM의 예측 실패로 운영체제를 기반으로 성공, 공룡으로 한계 • Apple : 마니아 중심 접근의 폐쇄성에서 끝임 없는 자기혁신으로 시마트폰 시장 점령 • Google : 공학적 정신으로 성공, 그 미래는 혁신의 정도에 따라 다름 • 삼성 : 공학적 접근, 다양한 변화를 바탕으로 하지만 기본적으로는 장치산업, 현재 국내에서도 외국인이 10%가 넘어선 변화 모색 단계 기업

9. 정보통신 기술의 현재 • 일상화 • 융합, 스마트폰 • 유비쿼터스 • 연결 • 인터넷 • 웹1.0 • 웹2.0 : Social network • 웹3.0 : 의미 • 웹4.0 : 지능 • 하드웨어기술 • RFID/USN(무선인식/유비쿼터스센서네트워크) • GRID • 소프트웨어 • Cloud computing • 지능적 정보처리 : Data mining(Google) 9

10. Evolution of Cloud Computing 2007 Cloud Computing • Next generation Internet computing • Next generation data centers 2000 Software as a Service • Network-based subscriptions to applications • Gained momentum in 2001 1990 1980 Utility Computing • Offering computing resources as a metered service • Introduced in late 1990s Grid Computing • Solving large problems with parallel computing • Made mainstream by Globus Alliance 10 10

11. What is the evolution of the internet to 2020? 11

12. What is web 1.0? The world-wide web 12

13. How deep is the web? Very Surface web is accessed by search engines. Deep web is several orders of magnitude larger, and is not indexed by public search engines. Search engines, such as Google, rely upon automated crawlers and are great for finding Web pages. However, these Web page search engines typically cannot reach information within a database. Rather, database content is retrieved through the database’s own search engine. Recognizing the distinction between searching Web page content and database content is important because the bulk of authoritative information resides in databases within the deep Web. A new class of search engine specially designed to access distributed resources in the deep Web, enabling a single query to launch searches across a number of databases. This chart depicts the web as an iceberg. The visible tip of the iceberg is the surface web of an estimated 10-12 billion pages that is indexed by various search engines. The deep web of more than 600 billion pages lies below the surface and is not accessible with public search engines. 13

14. What is web 2.0? A web of participation Web 2.0 is the the second stage the web. It is the social web that connects people. It is a web of participation. User consumes & creates. Sites are interactive, for example: blogs–keep a web-diary; Wikipedia — free encyclopedia, anyone edits; Del.icio.us — social bookmarking; mySpace, openBC – cultivate social relations; Flickr — share photos; and YouTube–broadcast yourself. According to Tim O’Reilly, several principles distinguish web 2.0, for example: (1) the web as platform ; (2) harnessing collective intelligence (3) data is the next Intel inside; (4) end of the software release cycle; (5) lightweight programming models; (6) software above the level of a single device; and (7) rich user experiences. In addition web 2.0 approaches embrace: remixing data and services; relation-orientation; the long tail; and bi-directional interaction. Web 2.0 social computing has both consumer and enterprise impacts. 14

15. What is social computing? Putting the “I” in the UI, and the “we” in web. According to Clay Shirkey, social computing is software that supports group interaction. It’s about augmenting our human social and collaborative abilities. Something has changed in the Web during this decade of online history... At the beginning it was all about being online; now it’s about socializing the online environment. It’s not about technology. The addition of human (social) significance to our online interactions is driving the emergence of a real (cyber)social environment, that extends seamlessly to the “real world”. It’s about people. Their social (networking) activity is going online to be expanded and amplified by network effects, and the viral nature of the information flowing through the Internet. It’s about social networks. We are getting linked to them, making the Web itself more social (humane). 15

16. What is web 3.0? A web of meanings and connected knowledge. Web 3.0 is the third stage of internet evolution that is starting now. It is a web of meanings. It connects knowledge. It represents meanings and knowledge about things so both computers and people can work with them. Web 3.0 is not about re-inventing the internet; it’s about making the internet more useful, and our experience of it better. Web 3.0 makes the internet more connected, open, and intelligent. Users are served by systems that present personalized information, are context-aware, can link and share information in relevant ways, connect with relevant people, better organize the digital life, combine and integrate processes, arrange dates and tasks, give meaningful answers instead of data in bulk. 16

17. What is web 3.0? Web 3.0 = web 2.0 + semantic web + AI. Trends towards web 3.0 have been gestating for a decade and are approaching a tipping point. Specifically, several major technology trends are reaching a new level of maturity at the same time. These include: (1) ubiquitous connectivity including broadband adoption, mobile devices and Internet access; (2) distributed network computing using P2P, grid, mesh, and hosted “cloud computing”; (3) open standards-based technologies, open-source, and open identity; (4) semantic application platforms; (5) scalable declarative storage systems; (6) natural language processing, machine learning, and machine reasoning; and (7) semantic agents. The simultaneous maturity of these trends is mutually reinforcing, and collectively they will drive the third- generation web. 17

18. What is web 4.0? A web of connected intelligence Web 4.0 is the ubiquitous web. Everything is connected. Everything has some intelligence, memory, a lifecycle, and agency. It is a web of semantic agents. Both people and things contribute to co-evolving social dialog. The emerging pervasive/ubiquitous computing landscape is a network of connected “things” with invisible processors, lightweight, small, cheap, low/no power in almost all everyday objects, wirelessly interconnected, continuously "online.” Seamless services across all contexts. This is a post-PC, post-IP era. Object-orientation and stack architectures get jettisoned as “trainer wheels.” Interaction, coordination, security, and integrity cannot be organized centrally. The most granular societal artifacts have skills for orientation, planning, scheduling, and acting. Intellectual property is autonomic. Whether we are speaking of a content paragraph, picture, a model, a software service, a sensor, a product or other physical entity — all are self- organizing, context-aware, self-describing, self-configuring, autonomic, and communicating autonomously. 18

19. What are we looking for in Web 4.0? Everything, everywhere, all the time, sleepless. 19

20. Long Tails • The Long Tail was first coined by Chris Anderson (2004) • products that are in low demand or have low sales volume can collectively make up a market share that rivals or exceeds the relatively few current bestsellers and blockbusters, if the store or distribution channel is large enough. • Amazon.com, Netflix, 영국 Artist, 부산의 특이한 것 파는 대학생 • We sold more books today that didn't sell at all yesterday than we sold today of all the books that did sell yesterday • The user-edited internet encyclopediaWikipedia has many low popularity articles that, collectively, create a higher quantity of demand than a limited number of mainstream articles found in a conventional encyclopedia such as the Encyclopædia Britannica

21. Long Tails: Relationship with storage and distribution costs The key factor that determines whether a sales distribution has a Long Tail is the cost of inventory storage and distribution. Where inventory storage and distribution costs are insignificant, it becomes economically viable to sell relatively unpopular products

22. Long Tails: Cultural and political impact • Where the Long Tail works, minority tastes are catered to, and individuals are offered greater choice. In situations where popularity is currently determined by the lowest common denominator, a Long Tail model may lead to improvement in a society's level of culture • Loyalty of costumers • Some of the most successful Internet businesses have leveraged the Long Tail as part of their businesses. Examples include eBay (auctions), Yahoo! and Google (web search), and Amazon (retail) amongst the majors along with smaller Internet companies like Audible (audio books) and Netflix (video rental).

23. User-generated content • Come into the mainstream during 2005 in web publishing and new media content production circles • Reflects the democratisation of media production through new technologies that are accessible and affordable • digital video, blogging, podcasting, mobile phone photography, wikis • Flickr, Friends Reunited, FourDocs, YouTube, Revver, Second Life and Wikipedia • 우리나라에서는 일반적이었으나 최근에 미국에서 각광 • 싸이월드, 지식검색

24. About Google • Google's mission is to organize the world's information and make it universally accessible and useful. • As a first step to fulfilling that mission, Google's founders Larry Page and Sergey Brin developed a new approach to online search that took root in a Stanford University dorm room and quickly spread to information seekers around the globe. Google is now widely recognized as the world's largest search engine -- an easy-to-use free service that usually returns relevant results in a fraction of a second.

25. Google’s Technology Use • Installation of software -Easy to install, easy to get rid off • Page Rank technology -Machine operated -Mathematical analysis • Their workstations use Linux OS

26. Encyclopedias People/Community Books Sources Integrated Information Search Consider the type of online information you need. Government Documents Personal sites Organizations Magazines Dictionaries Primary sources Pictures Newspapers Audio Journals Video

27. 정보를 모아서 짜깁으면 • 정보를 모아서 짜깁으면 그것이 힘이다. • 검색하는 사람의 성향, 어떤 광고를 보고 무엇을 구매하는가, 어떤 텔레비전 프로그램을 보고 무엇을 사는가, 어떤 책을 읽고, 어떤 동영상을 좋아하면 …. • 구글은 이런 정보를 바탕으로 검색을 효율적으로 하여 큰 기업 • 개인의 정보 유출에 대한 우려

29. Google’s Advertising Strategy • No pop-up ads • 광고와 검색결과를 분리하여 검색의 정확도를 높임 • Major advertising ads appear as hits in a search • 돈 때문에 검색 결과가 왜곡되지 않음 • Small advertising messages appear to the margins of web pages • 그래도 1년에 250억 달러의 매출을 올림 • 더구나 40%는 미국 밖에서

30. 새로운 광고전략 • Small customers manage their own accounts -Customers log in into their web portal -They only need a credit card • Account Teams -Manage large customer accounts -Price Monitoring • “Cost Per Click” Price Strategy -Key word counters - 경매에 의한 판매

31. Google AdWords Targeted based on search terms Google AdWords Displayed on Google.com Google AdWords (sponsored links)

32. Google AdSense Targeted based on content Displayed on any websites Google AdSense

33. Ken Auletta가 본 Google

34. Google, • Google의 시장 점유율 • 전 세계: 80% 이상 • 미국 내: 60% 이상 • 아프리카와 같은 지역에서도 모바일 인터넷을 통해 많은 아이가 Google을 교과서로 활용하고 있음 • 측정 가능한 공학적 광고, 광고 소비자를 분석한 광고

35. ‘Ken Auletta'가 생각하는 Google의 성공 요인 1999년 수익을 발생하지 못하고 있던 Google에 세계적인 카드 회사 'VISA'가 찾아와 메인 페이지에 VISA 광고를 하게 해 주면 300만 불을 주겠다는 제안을 했다고 합니다. 당시 수익으로 고민하고 있던 마케팅 부서나 다른 이사들은 그 제안에 적극적으로 찬성을 던졌지만, '래리엔 세르게이'는 고민의 여지도 없이 'No'를 해 버렸습니다. 홈페이지에 광고하지 않는다는 그들의 원칙 때문이었다고 하네요. • Google의 매출 • 1999년 창업 초기: 1$ 미만 • 2009년: 약 230억 불 • Google 철학 Episode

36. Google의 성공 요인 • ‘Ken Auletta’가 말하는 Google의 성공 요인 • 미친듯한 열정을 바탕으로 한 명확성 • ‘Why Not?’이라고 하는 엔지니어 중심의 문화 • 수학적 명확성에 기반을 둔 접근 • 현재 Google 전체 직원의 70%가 엔지니어 • 엔지니어가 존중받는 기업 • 마사지, 점심, 휴가 • 평가 방법, 승진 방법이 독특 • 자신의 근무 시간 20%는 자기가 원하는 일을 할 수 있음 • 즐거운 기업, 신나는 근무

37. Google의 문제점 • 인간과 감정에 대한 이해 부족 • Google의 모토: ‘Don’t be evil’ • Google은 모든 사람에게 선한가? => NO!! • 뉴스 산업 • 전 세계에서, 뉴스를 취재하기 위해선 비용이 많이 듦 • Google은 Google News를 통해 정보가 무료로 제공되어야 한다고 생각. • YouTube로 인해 사라지는 TV 프로그램 • Google의 e-Book 정책 • 세계 모든 책을 디지털로 만들어 Google 사용자에게 공급 • 저작권을 가진 미국 작가협회와의 충돌

38. 또 다른 문제 • ‘Ken Auletta’가 지적하는가장 큰 문제점: 엔지니어적 마인드가 지나치다! • 저작권에 대한 인식 부족 • Google의 두 지도자는 알고리즘과 수식으로만 모든 것을 판단하려 함 • 중국, 한국에서의 실패 역시 이 때문으로 생각 • 인간적 관계에 대한 이해 부족 • 인간적 감정, 정부와의 관계, 민족적 특성에 대한 이해 필요

39. 기존의 미디어들은 그냥 무너져 버려야만 할 것인가? • 차별화된 가치 제공이 필요 • 2009년 Google의 매출 230억 • 미국의 4대 방송사 매출의 합보다 큼 • 기존 미디어들은 무너질 수 밖에 없는가? => NO! • 위기는 기회. 새로운 도전이 필요하다! • 출판사도 e-Book 사업에 대한 도전하라 • IT 문화를 자신의 산업 분야에 잘 접목시키는 것이 필요!

40. Google: 미래는 어떻게 변화할 것인가? • ‘미래는 예측 불가다.’ • 보이지 않는다. 즉, 알 수 없다. • Google의 미래 역시 누구도 말할 수 없다. • IT 변화의 빠른 물결 • 너무도 빨리 변하는 IT에 어떻게 대응할 것인가? • Google만의 차별화된 모습을 만들 수 있는가? • 광고가 아닌 새로운 수익 모델의 필요성 • iPad 미디어의 성공: contents 제작사들의 희망 • 새로운 기술의 시대는 MS와 같은 대기업이 아닌, ‘소비자가 왕’이다. • 인터넷 속도의 발전 • 인터넷으로 할 수 없는 일이 없다! • 클라우드 컴퓨팅 - Google이 상상력을 발휘할 기회! • 미래는 우리 모두에게 기회다!

41. Q & A • Q: Google이 궁극적으로 원하는 것은 무엇일까? • Ken Auletta: 사람들이 Google에 머물러 있기를 원하는 것 같다. • Google에서 검색하고 • Google News에서 뉴스를 보고 • Google Docs에서 업무를 보고 • YouTube에서 멀티미디어 contents를 보라!

42. Q & A • Q: Google과 애플의 관계? • Ken Auletta: 전쟁 중이다. • Google은 아니라고 생각할 수 있지만, 애플 입장에서는 이미 Google이 선전포고를 했다. • 2009년 8월 Google 이사회에서 애플의 이사였던 Google 회장 애릭 슈미츠에게 사퇴 요구 • 애플과 Google의 이사를 겸임하던 엘 고어 전 부통령에게 둘 중 하나를 선택하라 요청 • 스티브 잡스의 절친한 친구인 캠플에게 Google의 이사를 사임하라고 요구

43. 스마트폰, 새로운 환경 창의성이 발휘될 새로운 공간

44. iPhone, 구글폰, 새로운 응용 창출 • 기존 응용을 스마트폰에 적용한 것 • 비교적 큰 메모리, 빠른 처리 속도 • 무선통신과 접속에 따른 통신비용 절감 • 새로운 응용창출 • 새로운 상황인식 능력에 따라 만들어진 응용 • 중력 인식, 가속도 인식, (조도 센서), 터치스크린, 나침반 • 기존 기술을 스마트폰에 맞추어 변형한 것 • 스마트폰이란 환경이 창출한 것 • 차이: iPhone은 폐쇄형, Google은 개방형

47. WorldCard Mobile http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YyTrJTuaBjY&feature=fvst

49. PocketCPR http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VVRv5scxj6A