Introduction

1. Introduction MGS 8110 Regression & Forecasting Summer 2012 Monday & Wednesday, 7:40 – 10:10 PM Aderhold 213 Skip (Rodney K.) Schutz

2. Textbook • Textbook is Forecasting and Time Series, An Applied Approach, by Bruce L. Bowerman, Richard T. O’Connell and Anne B. Koehler, Thomson Learning, 2005. We will cover at least Chapter 1 - 11. • A used copy of the textbook with or without the CD in the back of the book is more than acceptable. (We don’t use the CD.) Try www.half.com or www.amazon.com. The newest edition (4th edition, hardcover, three authors) is slightly better than the 3rd edition (soft cover, two authors, 1993). Any edition is acceptable. • SPSS software may also be needed. Obtaining SPSS is discussed in more detail in Slide Set L00B. As of Sunday,3rd, ww.half.com had copies as low a $.75 and a like new copy for $6.00.

3. Course Outline • There are three basic modules in the course: • Regression (4 weeks) Chapters 3, 4 & 5. • Time series forecasting (2.5 weeks) Chapters 6, 7 & 8 • Box-Jenkins Forecasting (.5 wks) Chapters 9, 10 & 11 This is your syllabus

4. Lecture Notes & Prerequisites • Lecture notes will be posted in advanced on the internet. • Go to www.gsu.edu/~mgtrks/, then the MGS 8110 folder, • Excel is a prerequisite for the course. You are expected to already have at least an introductory level of Excel skills. • You need to have Excel up and running on your computers now. • To get the lecture notes you will need internet access and Power Point loaded on your computer. • Homeworks will be posted on our Web Page. • Weekly Homework assignments will state weekly reading assignments. Homeworks will be due every Monday.

5. Grading (1 of 3) • Calculation of course grade (subject to change) • 6 or 7 Homework assignments 40% • Take-home Mid-term exam (after Drop date) 35% • Take-home Final exam 25% SUBJECT TO CHANGE

6. Grading (2 of 3) • I am a wonderful person. • I am a demanding person and expect you to put forth significant effort. • I am a relatively easier grader - IF YOU PUT IN THE REQUIRED EFFORT. • I will not give all A’s. • The Dean and the College of Business require that I give less than 50% A’s for some courses. • Would prefer never to give a C.

7. Review of Honor Code • HOMEWORKS: • You are allowed and in some cases encouraged to seek help from other student. Get someone else's telephone number. • But don’t cross the line. You can look at another persons work, but don’t copy it. Definitely don’t submit an electronic copy. • TAKE-HOME Exams • The rules change for the take-home exam. You cannot discuss the take-home exams with other students. No interaction or communication between students is allowed for the Take-home Exams. You can call me.

8. Late Homeworks • Homework is due on the assigned date. • If you can not attend class on the due date for a homework: • e-mail me a copy of your homework which will time/date stamp your work. • The e-mail title must clearly state you name, the course number and the homework number. • I will NOT grade the e-mail copy. • At the next class, submit a paper copy of the homework. • The paper copy should be the same as the e-mail copy. • In all other cases, late homeworks will be down-graded.

9. Contact Information Use this phone number • Off-campus • 404 556-2403 (cell) (770 978-9712, second choice is home phone but there is not an answering machine), weekday or weekends. • See the posted “calendar” to know when I am in class and unavailable. • No calls before 8:00 AM or after 10:00 PM. • rkschutz@mindspring.com(phone calls preferred to e-mails).Homeworks that are e-mailed will NOT be graded. • Ga State University, downtown • 404 413-7547 Room 832, Robinson School of Management on Broad Street. • schutz@gsu.edu Use this e-mail address

10. e-mailing my off-campus office • I have a spam blocker on my earthlink account (mindspring). Your incoming e-mail will be blocked the first time you write me. Don’t worry about it. I review the log of blocked e-mails once per day. Usually in the evening. I will unblock you e-mail without you having to specifically requesting it. Of course, there will be a 24-hour delay in responding to your e-mail (at least the first e-mail). • Make sure the title (subject) of the e-mail begins with the course number (e.g., MGS 8170). Note, the porn sites can use a subject such as: “I have a question” or “Hi Skip”. Those porn people are very clever.

11. Contact Information - REVIEW • Don’t e-mail me. Call me. • If I don’t pick up the phone, leave a short voice-mail message. A short message means a short message. Name and telephone number. • I will probably not call you back, You should call me back. • Think 200.

12. Education Beliefs (1 of 2) • I will try to structure the material so that you will get the maximum benefit from your study time. • Socratic Method - ask open-ended questions (probing questions) that force the student to think deeply about the topic. Students frequently discover the basic facts on their own. Gain a long term understanding of the material. • There will be open-ended questions to prevent you from going to sleep and to allow me to monitor your understanding of the material. • A strict interpretation of an Honor Code is expected. You can ask fellow students for help, but homework assignments must be your own work. Making mistakes and “negative learning” are bad. Ask fellow students for help if you don’t understand. However, under no conditions can you copy a fellow student’s homework or work on homework jointly. Collaborative Learning is great. Cheating of any degree is verboten. A 3 credit course requires 9 hours of out-of-class work per week.

13. Education Beliefs (2 of 2) • You forget 80% of what you learn in 1 year. • Re-learning is much, much faster than original learning. • Repetition and long duration exposure increases retention. • When learning statistics, actual hands-on calculations must be performed. • The sign of an educated person is not what he knows, but what he can find out. • I believe that you must have a good knowledge base in order to self-teach, advanced knowledge in the future.

14. Student Feedback • There will be a seating chart so I can learn your names. • There will be a class picture (taken around the middle of the semester). If I Am Late for Class • Don’t leave, if I am late for class. Sit in class and read your textbook or do other homework. • I have never been late for class (okay maybe one time). • Traffic is very irregular in Atlanta. Even though I leave very early, I could get trapped in a huge delay. • You can leave after you wait 1-1/2 hours (for a 2-1/2 hour class) or 45 minutes (for a 1-1/2 hour class).

15. Objectives of the course • Enhance your Excel skills to a semi-expert level. • Improve & practice your general quantitative skills (number skills). • Achieve advanced competence doing regression analysis. • Learn the fundamentals of model building. • Learn basic Forecasting skills. • Continue to improve your basic statistics skills. • Introduction to Box-Jenkins forecasting procedures. • Maybe achieve competence using SPSS statistical software.

16. Abridged Bio for Skip Schutz • Born in Baltimore during WWII. • Raised in Baltimore by second generation German mother. • High School was Baltimore Polytechnic Institute. • B.S.E (OR), Johns Hopkins University. • MS (OR), MA (Statistics), PhD (OR), University of Michigan. • Assistant Professor, Georgia Institute of Technology. • Human Factor Engr., Statistician, Industrial Engineer, Physical Designer and Technical Manager for AT&T Bell Labs,Lucent Technologies and Avaya for 23 years. • Married with 4 children living in Snellville GA. • Have a hearing loss.

17. Lets Begin • This course covers very valuable information. • You will learn a lot. • I am excited and happy to be here.