Methane Only Abatement Policies: Promises and Problems

1. Methane Only Abatement Policies: Promises and Problems Marcus Sarofim MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change Technology Management and Policy Graduate Consortium Cambridge, MA, June 27th 2005

2. Why Methane? Significant near term climate impact Low cost abatement opportunities Political Feasibility

3. Climate Characteristics GWP global warming : potential Methane oxidizes in the atmosphere to produce CO2. It can also lead to increased background ozone production.

4. Global Anthropogenic Emissions in 2000 Radiative Forcing from Anthropogenic GHGs in 2000 Methane is the 2nd most important anthropogenic GHG after CO2

5. 14 Nations have signed onto the US-led partnership (started in November 2004) Argentina, Australia, Brazil, China, Colombia, India, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Nigeria, Russia, Ukraine, United Kingdom, United States These nations account for 60% of worldwide methane emissions 4 Sectors are addressed: Coal, Oil, Natural Gas, and Landfills “Markets” refers to capturing the methane as a natural gas source Estimated abatement potential: 50 MMTCE or 8 MMT of CH4 Politics: Methane to Markets

6. Global Anthropogenic Methane Emissions by Source • Agriculture and combustion are large area sources and impossible to capture. • Sectors covered by M2M (exploded wedges) all have capture potential.

7. MIT IGSM • EPPA (Economic/Emissions model) • 16 region CGE model • Predicts emissions of GHGs and pollutants • Activities: Energy combustion and production, agriculture and land use, industrial processes, waste disposal (sewage & landfills) • 100 Year Timescale

8. Methane Abatement in Coal Mining Figure from EPA report: US Methane Emissions 1990-2020

9. Economy Wide Abatement Costs • All sectors, all regions • Marginal abatement cost in 2010 • CGE models don’t allow for “no-regrets” options

10. M2M Analysis

11. The Potential of Methane 2020 2060 2100 Methane Policy at $10/ton carbon equivalent CO2 Policy equal in GWP terms to Methane Policy (~$20/ton CE)

12. All commitments will be voluntary and non-binding. Additionally, everything will work through “public-private” partnerships The US has committed $53 million of funding over 5 years: for administrative purposes only The initiative relies on the presumed existence of no regrets options that have not been implemented because of lack of information or easily resolvable political/legal barriers. Modeled after domestic successes like AgStar, CMOP (coal), LMOP (landfills), NG Star (gas) But some of these programs included tax incentives (Windfill Profits Tax Act) or regulations (New Source Performance Standards) (both for landfills) Methane to Markets

13. According to one Mexican official Methane to Markets is still in “pañales” (diapers) A premature start with not enough funding Mexico has already initiated domestic landfill projects In progress there exist CDM applications for 7 landfill projects and 1 coal mine flaring project Some hope for aid in analysis work Requires political will at high levels PEMEX has rights to coalmine gas rather than the coal mine operators. Therefore, flaring can generate “certified emission reduction” credits, but it is not legal to capture the gas and sell it without PEMEX cooperation Developing Nations

14. Promise: Our modeling results show that taking advantage of the significant low cost abatement opportunities available for methane can be a surprisingly effective global warming reduction strategy, even on a 100 year timescale Problems: Methane to Markets Ignores key sectors Not sufficiently ambitious Not enough monetary support Actual action items still lacking Truly long term climate solutions will require addressing carbon dioxide It is an open question as to whether methane abatement efforts will detract from other climate policy initiatives... Conclusions

15. BACK UP SLIDES

16. Marginal Abatement Curve

17. Methane on the 300 year timescale Because of lifetime differences, policies that rely heavily on methane abatement will not be as effective in the long term.