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MILITARY DECISION MAKING PROCESS

MILITARY DECISION MAKING PROCESS. Military Decision Making Process. MISSION RECEIVED. CDR ACTIONS. STAFF ACTIONS. INFO TO CDR. INFO TO STAFF. MSN ANALYSIS RESTATED MSN CDR’S GUIDANCE. MISSION ANALYSIS PROPOSED RESTATED MSN. CDR’S EST. STAFF EST. COA DEVELOPMENT/ ANALYSIS.

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MILITARY DECISION MAKING PROCESS

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  1. MILITARYDECISIONMAKINGPROCESS

  2. Military Decision Making Process MISSION RECEIVED CDR ACTIONS STAFF ACTIONS INFO TO CDR INFO TO STAFF MSN ANALYSIS RESTATED MSN CDR’S GUIDANCE MISSION ANALYSIS PROPOSED RESTATED MSN CDR’S EST STAFF EST COA DEVELOPMENT/ ANALYSIS COA DEVELOPMENT COA ANALYSIS, COMPARISON, RECOMMENDATION COA COMPARISON AND DECISION PREP PLAN/ ORDER/FRAGO PLAN/ORDER/ FRAGO APPROVAL ISSUE PLAN/ ORDER/FRAGO MSN REC’D BY SUB UNITS EXECUTION

  3. Military Decision Making Process RECEIPT OF MISSION WARNING ORDER MISSION ANALYSIS WARNING ORDER COA DEVELOPMENT COA ANALYSIS COA COMPARISON COA APPROVAL WARNING ORDER ORDERS PRODUCTION REHEARSAL EXECUTION & ASSESSMENT FM 101-5 pg 5-2

  4. Military Decision Making Process WARNING ORDER #__ References: 1. SITUATION a. Enemy forces. b. Friendly forces. (1) Mission (2) Commander’s Intent c. Attachments and detachments. 2. MISSION 3. EXECUTION Intent (when available). a. Concept of operation (when available). Assembly area locations (If applicable, when available). b. Tasks to maneuver units (when available). (1) Reconnaissance. (2) Surveillance (2) Security c. Tasks to combat support units (when available). d. Coordinating instructions. (1) Earliest movement time and degree of notice. (2) Orders group meeting (attendees, location, and time) (when applicable). 4. SERVICE SUPPORT a. Special equipment. b. Transportation. 5. COMMAND AND SIGNAL ACKNOWLEDGE: NAME (Commander’s last name) RANK (Commander’s rank) OFFICIAL: ANNEXES: DISTRIBUTION: Copy __ of __ Copies Issuing headquarters Place of issue Date-time group of signature Message reference no. FM 101-5 pgs H-27/28

  5. Military Decision Making Process 7 Steps • Receipt of mission • Mission analysis • Course of action development • Course of action analysis • Course of action comparison • Course of action approval • Orders production FM 101-5 pg 5-3

  6. Military Decision Making Process Step 1 Input Output Receipt of Mission Mission of Higher Cdr’s Initial Guidance - Initial Assessment - Update Staff Estimates - Prepare for Mission Analysis Warning Order 1 FM 101-5 pgs 5-3, 5-4

  7. Military Decision Making Process Step 2 Output Input Initial IPB Products Mission Mission Analysis Restated Mission Staff Estimates - Analysis of Higher Msn/Intent - Identify Specified / Implied Tasks / Essential Tasks - Review Task Org / Assets - Determine Restrictions / Constraints - Assess Risk - Identify Critical Facts / Assumptions Cdr’s Intent / Guidance Facts & Assumptions Warning Order 2 Staff Products Battlefield Framework Preliminary Movement FM 102-5 pgs 5-4, 5-5

  8. Definition of Commander’s Intent The commander’s intent is a clear, concise statement of what the force must do to succeed with respect to the enemy and the terrain, and the desired end state. It provides the link between the mission and the concept of operations by stating the key tasks that, along with the mission, are the basis for subordinates to exercise initiative when unanticipated opportunities arise or when the original concept of operations no longer applies. Intent is normally expressed in four or five sentences and is mandatory for all orders. The mission and the commander’s intent must be understood two echelons down. FM 101-5 pg 5-9

  9. Intent Statement Commander’s intent statement should state the following: • Key tasks • End state FM 101-5 pg 5-9

  10. Key Tasks For Commander’s Intent • Tasks that must be performed, or conditions that must be met, to achieve stated purpose of the operation • Not tied to specific course of action, but fundamental to the force’s success • Subordinates use these tasks to keep their efforts supporting the commander’s intent • Examples • Tempo • Duration • Terrain that must be controlled • Effect on the enemy FM 101-5 pg 5-9

  11. Example Commander’s Intent Mission At 112130JUL97, 1 CAV DIV attacks in zone to PL VIRGINIA to defeat the 61 BDE (MTZD) and establish a covering force NLT 120600JUL97 from PL ALABAMA to PL MAINE to protect CORPS assembly areas. On order, 1 CAV DIV attacks in zone to PL FLORIDA to defeat the remaining enemy forces. On order, defends in sector from PL ILLINOIS to PL VIRGINIA to defeat enemy attacks across the international border. Commander's Intent I want to rapidly defeat the remaining enemy forces in zone to PL ALABAMA to establish a covering force. The covering force will protect the division until we are prepared for combat and facilitate the forward passage of the heavy brigades, allowing the heavy brigades to rapidly defeat enemy forces in zone to PL FLORIDA, and posture the division to destroy any enemy counterattacks across the international border. End state is the international border restored and the division defending in sector along PL FLORIDA prepared to defeat any enemy attacks across the international border.

  12. Military Decision Making Process 13 Elements of commander’s guidance • Specify COAs, friendly & enemy, and the priority for addressing them • The CCIR • Reconnaissance guidance • Risk guidance • Deception guidance • Fire support guidance • Mobility & countermobility guidance • Security measures to be implemented • Additional specific priorities for CS and CSS • Other information the Cdr wants the staff to consider • The time plan • Type of order to issue • Type of rehearsal to conduct FM 101-5 pg 5-10

  13. Commander’s Critical Information Requirements(CCIR) • Supports the commander’s battlefield visualization • Identifies critical decisions • Assists in determining or validating COAs • Helps filter information available to the commander • Focuses the efforts of subordinates and staff • Assists in the allocation of resources • Assists staff officers in making recommendations • 10 or less items of information • Directly affects the success or failure of the mission FM 101-5 pg 5-7

  14. Commander’s Critical Information Requirements(CCIR) • PIR - Information about the enemy. Example: Are the 14 TMD and 13 ID DAGs located vicinity NAI 17 (CH 4535) and NAI 14 (CH3736) respectively? LTIOV: 252300JUL97 • EEFI - Information needed to protect friendly forces from the enemy’s information-gathering systems. Example: Location of brigade command posts. • FFIR - Information about the capabilities of own or adjacent units. Example: First contact with enemy. • Combat power below designated level. FM 101-5 pg 5-8

  15. NCOs In The Military Decision Making Process PLANNING PROCESS COMMANDER STAFF OFFICERS STAFF NCOs RTOs/CLERKS • MISSION ANALYSIS • Prepare charts for mission analysis • Prepare terrain sketches • Update and post unit reports/status • Prepare TOC for planning process • Conduct mission analysis • Serve as a recorder during process • Brief commander and staff X X X X X X X X X X X X X • COMMANDER’S GUIDANCE • Assist Cdr in developing guidance • Issue guidance • Record/post Cdr’s guidance X X X X X X • COA DEVELOPMENT • Prepare charts • Sketch COAs • Develop COAs X X X X X FM 101-5 pg K-2

  16. NCOs In The Military Decision Making Process (continued) PLANNING PROCESS COMMANDER STAFF OFFICERS STAFF NCOs RTOs/CLERKS • COA ANALYSIS • Collect and prepare tools/charts • Serve as a war-game recorder • Conduct war-game session X X X X X X • DECISION • Make recommendation to Cdr • Decide • Record/post Cdr’s guidance X X X X X X • ORDERS PREP • Write annexes • Consolidate annexes • Type order • Reproduce orders/graphics • Review order • Approve order X X X X X X X X X X X FM 101-5 pg K-2

  17. MILITARY DECISIONMAKING PROCESSWorkshop #2

  18. Military Decision Making Process Step 3 Input Output Restated Mission COA Stmts / Sketches Course of Action Development Cdr's Guidance / Intent - Analyze Relative Combat Power - Generate Options - Array Initial Forces - Develop the Scheme of Maneuver - Assign Headquarters - Prepare COA Statements / Sketches Staff Estimates Enemy COAs FM 101-5 pgs 5-4, 5-11

  19. Course of Action Development Criteria • Suitability • Feasibility • Acceptability • Distinguishability • Completeness FM 101-5 pg 5-11

  20. 57 03 COA #1 CFL 52 DIV CFL 52 DIV LOA (PL WISCONSIN) LOA (PL WISCONSIN) 200100 MAY 97 200100 MAY 97 37 OBJ SABER 42 TONG’DUCH O/O FEBA (PL FLORIDA) O/O FEBA (PL FLORIDA) OBJ KNIFE OBJ BAYONET PL IOWA PL IOWA AA SCABBARD PL NEBRASKA PL NEBRASKA X 52 ID X MNC X 3 X 1 LD/LC (PL NEVADA) LD/LC (PL NEVADA) Course of Action: BDE attacks frontally with two task forces abreast at 200630 May 97 with a mech heavy task force conducting the main attack in zone in the east to seize OBJ BAYONET to defeat an enemy battalion. Priority of indirect fires initially to counterbattery then neutralization of enemy forces at the point of attack. Smoke will be used to isolate enemy positions at the point of attack. A 20 minute prep on the OBJ’s will be fired to suppress enemy forces. An infantry battalion conducts a supporting attack in zone in the west to seize OBJ KNIFE to defeat an enemy battalion. A tank heavy task force follows the mech heavy task force and assumes the main effort to defeat the second echelon battalion vicinity OBJ SABER. Lead battalions provide frontal and flank security. A mech team, brigade reserve, follows the tank heavy task force prepared to reinforce the main effort or respond to threats to LOC. DS, R artillery and Q36 radar will initially position forward along PL NEVADA. One battery from the DS and one battery from the R battalion will initially move behind the lead Co/Tm’s in the right and left zone, respectively. The Q36 radar will move with the mech heavy TF. BDE Main CP will position vic PL NEVADA prior to attack. TAC CP will follow mech heavy TF. Risk is accepted by having a small reserve in order to mass combat power on the objective.

  21. X X 57 03 COA #1 CFL 52 DIV CFL 52 DIV LOA (PL WISCONSIN) LOA (PL WISCONSIN) O/O O/O 37 42 TONG’DUCH FEBA (PL FLORIDA) FEBA (PL FLORIDA) TAC PL IOWA PL IOWA EA DALLAS EA AUSTIN MAIN AA SCABBARD PL NEBRASKA PL NEBRASKA X 52 ID X MNC X AA HILT 3 X 1 PL NEVADA PL NEVADA Course of Action: On order, BDE defends from PL FLORIDA to PL NEVADA with two task forces abreast to defeat the advance guard and lead battalions; a task force in depth, the defeat mechanism, will counter attack to defeat the enemy. Forward battalions establish screen from PL WISCONSIN to PL FLORIDA. The tank heavy task force establishes a combat outpost in TONG’DUCH to engage enemy reconnaissance and force deployment of the Advanced Guard Battalion. Indirect fires neutralize Advance Guard in security zone. A tank heavy task force, main effort, in the east defends in sector from PL FLORIDA to PL IOWA to defeat the advance guard and first echelon battalion. An infantry battalion in the west defends in sector from PL FLORIDA to PL IOWA to defeat a first echelon battalion. A mech heavy task force occupies AA SCABBARD; on order main effort counterattacks into EA DALLAS or EA AUSTIN to defeat the second echelon battalion. Priority of fires to main effort battalion. Use blocking obstacles to shape EA DALLAS or EA AUSTIN once enemy main effort is identified, to support mech heavy TF’s CATK. A mech team, brigade reserve, occupies AA HILT, prepared to defeat penetrations of PL NEBRASKA or respond to level II rear area threats. DS and R artillery with Q36 radar positioned forward between PL FLORIDA and PL IOWA. Risk is accepted by having a small reserve in order to defeat penetrations of PL NEBRASKA.

  22. 57 03 COA #1 CFL 52 DIV CFL 52 DIV LOA (PL WISCONSIN) LOA (PL WISCONSIN) 200100 MAY 97 200100 MAY 97 37 OBJ SABER 42 TONG’DUCH O/O FEBA (PL FLORIDA) O/O FEBA (PL FLORIDA) OBJ KNIFE OBJ BAYONET PL IOWA PL IOWA AA SCABBARD PL NEBRASKA PL NEBRASKA X 52 ID X MNC X 3 X 1 LD/LC (PL NEVADA) LD/LC (PL NEVADA) Course of Action: BDE attacks frontally with two task forces abreast at 200630 May 97 with a mech heavy task force conducting the main attack in zone in the east to seize OBJ BAYONET to defeat an enemy battalion. Priority of indirect fires initially to counterbattery then neutralization of enemy forces at the point of attack. Smoke will be used to isolate enemy positions at the point of attack. A 20 minute prep on the OBJ’s will be fired to suppress enemy forces. An infantry battalion conducts a supporting attack in zone in the west to seize OBJ KNIFE to defeat an enemy battalion. A tank heavy task force follows the mech heavy task force and assumes the main effort to defeat the second echelon battalion vicinity OBJ SABER. Lead battalions provide frontal and flank security. A mech team, brigade reserve, follows the tank heavy task force prepared to reinforce the main effort or respond to threats to LOC. DS, R artillery and Q36 radar will initially position forward along PL NEVADA. One battery from the DS and one battery from the R battalion will initially move behind the lead Co/Tm’s in the right and left zone, respectively. The Q36 radar will move with the mech heavy TF. BDE Main CP will position vic PL NEVADA prior to attack. TAC CP will follow mech heavy TF. Risk is accepted by having a small reserve in order to mass combat power on the objective.

  23. MILITARY DECISIONMAKING PROCESSWorkshop #3

  24. Military Decision Making Process Step 4 Input Output Enemy COA Course of Action Analysis War Game Results COA Stmts / Sketches - Conduct War Game Task Organization Staff COA Mission to Subordinates CCIR FM 101-5 pgs 5-4, 5-16

  25. Course of Action Analysis War Gaming Rules • Remain unbiased • List advantages and disadvantages (as found) • Continually assess COA feasibility, acceptability, and suitability • Avoid drawing premature conclusions and gathering facts to support such conclusions • Compare COAs during comparison process: Not during war game FM 101-5 pg 5-16

  26. Course of Action Analysis War Gaming Steps • Gather the tools • List all friendly forces • List assumptions • List known critical events and decision points • Determine evaluation criteria • Select the war game method (avenue/belt/box) • Select method to record and display results (synch matrix or sketch note) • War game the battle and assess the results FM 101-5 pg 5-17

  27. Course of Action Analysis War Game Results 1 OF 3 • Modified COA • Modified location and timing of the decisive point • Identification of key terrain • Refinement of enemy event template & matrix • Refinement of task organization • Identification of subordinate unit’s tasks • Allocation of combat, CS and CSS assets to subordinates • The synchronization matrix and decision support template • Estimate duration of each critical event / entire operation • Projection of enemy force destruction • Identification of location and commitment of reserve FM 101-5 pgs 5-23, 5-24

  28. Course of Action Analysis War Game Results 2 OF 3 • Identify likely times and areas for enemy use of WMD and friendly NBC requirements • Most dangerous enemy COA • Location of commander and CPs • Identify additional critical events • Identify additional CS and CSS requirements • Requirements for deception and surprise • Refined C2 requirements • Finalize CCIR and IR with LTIOV • Finalize R&S plan • Refined CCIR and incorporate into R&S plan and graphics FM 101-5 pgs 5-23, 5-24

  29. Course of Action Analysis War Game Results 3 OF 3 • Develop FS, Engr, AD, IO, CSS plans and graphics • Identify / confirm DPs / NAIs, TAIs • Timing of force concentration & initiation of the attack or counterattack • Develop the intel collection and dissemination plan • Determine movement times and tables • Identify, analyze, and evaluate strengths and weaknesses of the COA • Integrate targeting process • Synchronize smoke • Identify additional risks, develop control measures FM 101-5 pgs 5-23, 5-24

  30. Military Decision Making Process Step 5 Output Input Course of Action Comparison War Game Results Decision Matrix Establish Criteria - Assess Risk - Compare COAs - Recommendation FM 101-5 pgs 5-4, 5-24

  31. Course of Action Comparison • Select comparison method • Determine decision criteria • Assign weighting values to criteria • Make recommendation FM 101-5 pg 5-24

  32. MILITARY DECISIONMAKING PROCESSWorkshop #4

  33. “If the band played a piece first with the piccolo then with the brass horn, then with the clarinet, and then with the trumpet, there would be a hell of a lot of noise but no music. To get harmony in the music, each instrument must support the others, to get harmony in battle, each weapon must support the others. Team play wins.” General George S. Patton

  34. Orders “There is a type of staff officer who seems to think that it is more important to draft immaculate orders than to get out a reasonably well-worded order in time for action to be taken before the situation changes or the opportunity passes.” BH Liddell Hart Thoughts on War 1933

  35. Military Decision Making Process Step 6 Output Input Approved COA Course of Action Approval Decision Matrix Refined Cdr’s Intent - Select COA - Assess Risk - Specify Type of Order Specified Type of Order / Rehearsal High Pay-Off Target List Warning Order 3 FM 101-5 pgs 5-4, 5-26

  36. OPORD / OPLAN Development Guidelines / Characteristics 1 OF 2 • Address critical facts and assumptions • Authoritative expression • Positive expression • Avoiding unqualified directives • Balance • Simplicity • Be concise • Clarity • Completeness FM 101-5 pgs H-3, H-4

  37. OPORD / OPLAN Development Guidelines / Characteristics 2 OF 2 • Coordination • Flexibility • Clear, concise mission and intent statements • Centralized planning • Decentralized execution • Use of existing resources • Timeliness FM 101-5 pgs H-3, H-4

  38. Military Decision Making Process Step 7 Input Output Orders Production OPORD / OPLAN Approved COA - Translate into Plan / Order - Incorporate Branches and Sequels - Establish Control Measures - Synchronize Plan / Order FM 101-5 pgs 5-4, 5-26

  39. NCOs In TOC OPS TOC FUNCTION XO BATTLE CPT STAFF NCOs RTOs/CLERKS • RECEIVE INFORMATION • Monitor situation • Receive messages/reports • Maintain journal • Update post unit locations • Update status boards/charts X X X X X X X X X X X X • DISTRIBUTE INFORMATION • Submit reports • Publish orders • Pass messages/reports within TOCs X X X X X X X • ANALYZE INFORMATION • Review in/out going reports/orders • Conduct predictive analysis • Identify CCIR • Conduct TDMP • Serve as recorders • Develop terrain Sketches • prepare charts and overlays X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X MAKE RECOMMENDATIONS TO CDR X INTEGRATE/SYNCH RESOURCES X Reference: CALL Newsletter 95-12, DEC 95, Tactical Decision Making: Abbreviated Planning

  40. NCO Use • NCOs involvement • Enforce duties and responsibilities • Battlestaff trained NCOs

  41. Military Decision Making Process Rehearsal - 5 Types of Rehearsals - Confirmation Brief - Backbrief - Combined Arms Rehearsal - Support Rehearsal - Battle Drill or SOP Rehearsal FM 101-5 pgs 5-2, G-1/2

  42. Military Decision Making Process Execution & Assessment FM 101-5 pg 5-2

  43. MILITARY DECISIONMAKING PROCESS

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