PROPOSAL FOR A FRAMEWORK OF INDICATORS For

1. PROPOSAL FOR A FRAMEWORK OF INDICATORS For Pro-Poor, Environment Friendly Low Emission Disaster and Climate Resilient Development Abu Mostafa Kamal Uddin General Economics Division (GED), Planning Commission, MoP Government of People’s Republic of Bangladesh

2. INTRODUCTION CONCEPTUAL UNDERSTANDING OBJECTIVES AND SCOPE STRUCTURING THE INDICATOR FRAMEWORK DECISION MAKING & SUPPORT SYSTEM Outline

3. Climate change Impacts of climate change on Bangladesh Poverty Environment and climate nexus The Policy Context The National Planning Process in Bangladesh Role of Macro Functionaries Climate change financing Negotiation Process Annual Development Programme (ADP) CONCEPTUAL UNDERSTANDING

4. CLIMATE CHANGE LIVELIHOOD FRAMEWOERK

5. Bangladesh constitution,15th Amendment, Para 18 A Perspective plan 2010-2021 The Sixth Five Year Plan (SFYP) National Plan for Disaster Management Plan Bangladesh CC strategy and Action Plan The Policy Context

6. Screening the development proposals for ADP, Mainstreaming in to development planning Resource allocation M & E Results to support resource allocation process Purpose

7. The growth shall not be compromised while introducing safeguards • Ensuring equity and affirmative actions • Maintaining and enhancing environment • Has to be resilient to emerging climate conditions; • Driven by low carbon development philosophy; • Comprehensive encompass inputs, outputs and outcome indicators • Aligning constitution and national policies/startagies/plans • Complying MEAs and treaties that Bangladesh signed and ratified • the framework shall provide guidance for the development of individual sets of indicators for specific purposes; General conditions

8. Promote poverty reduction • Inclusive development • More jobs in particular green jobs, focusing women and socially disadvantaged groups • Ensure participation • Access to common resources, energy, nutrition • Enhanced social safety nets • Promote climate resilient economy and ecosystem and sustainable environment • Sector, ecosystems and community based adaptation • Sustainable land use, wetland and forest management • Greening industries and jobs • Implementation of sectoral policies and low emission and climate resilient national plan • Support market transformation towards low emission economy • Sustainable transport • Increased energy coverage, enhance energy efficiency, more renewable energy • Low emission technology; mitigation in all sectors • Climate proofing infrastructure Specific Objectives

9. Indicator schematics

10. Categories of Indicator • Climate change integration • Safety and functioning of interventions • Enhance resilience adaptation and risk reduction • Knowledge management, capacity building and social communication Framing of indicators

11. A set of indicators that accounts current (baseline) loss and damage due to disasters • A set of indicators for loss and damage estimates under climate change scenarios without action • A set of indicators that identifies loss of livelihoods due to climate change now and projected • Set of indicators to identify cost of inaction • A set of indicators characterizing existing legal, policy and planning instruments and gaps • A set of indicators to identify current level of investment in climate resilience, adaptation and mitigation (Climate public expenditure by sectors) • A set of indicators for investing in legal, policy and institutional strengthening • A set of indicators that characterizes visions or goals of long term national plans and policies like National Sustainable Development Strategy, SFYP, Vision 2021, perspective plan etc • A set of indicators that collectively become Management Input Indicators to lead the development towards pro-poor low emitting environment friendly climate resilient. User of the frameworkResource allocation

12. A set of indicators that would have the main function of characterizing resultant of the interactions of the climatic parameters on the ecosystems, livelihoods, communities, infrastructures (CC impacts) • A set of indicators that characterizes safety and security of the investment, e.g. avoiding exposure to weather extremes; interventions for managing unavoidable exposure to sustain and functioning of the investment • A set of indicators that characterizes adaptive functions of the proposed intervention for ecosystems, livelihoods, infrastructures and community resilience • A set of indicators that assesses Mal-adaptation or Anti-Adaptation. Ensure the proposed interventions are not creating obstacle for functioning of ecosystems and infrastructures else where • A set of indicators that assess emission as well as reduction in emission of the proposals • a set of indicators that characterizes policy, strategy, law, instruments (e.g. climate fiscal framework), • A set of indicators for strengthening institutional capacity including human development and a set of tools for effective community mobilization • A set of indicators for poverty reduction, gendered inclusive development and environmental and social safeguard. User of the frameworkScreening DPP

13. ‘Project Monitoring Form’ could be revised and created additional options for disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation along with poverty and environment. This will provide scope for tracking implication of the project components. Along with a separate section for providing relevant description on DRR and CCA, can be kept for tracking and analyzing those issues. In the ‘Project Completion Report’ format similar option could provide scope for analyzing project contribution related to climate change and disaster phenomena. This part could focus on the outcome level indicators for disaster and climate change implication of the project along with poverty and environment. User of the frameworkIM& Evaluation of development interventions

14. A set of indicators that characterizes past disaster and climate change lessons and future implications that could help improving project components to become more resilient. A set of indicators that characterizes positive and negative environmental implications of the project components on local bio-diversity / ecosystem could help minimizing adverse impact on natural environment and promoting environmental conservations. A set of indicators that ensure the accessibility of the poor people or true owner to the natural resources pool could help in poverty reduction and sustainable economic development A set of indicators that assess the risk of the project components due to existing disaster and climate change phenomena as well as the project results from the probable impact of the disaster and climate variability in the future a set of indicators that characterizes relevant mitigation measures to reduce the impact of disaster and climate change on project components and results User of the frameworkDeveloping pro-poor, environmentally bearable low emission climate resilient proposals

15. DECISION MAKING & SUPPORT SYSTEM

16. Scenarios of climate change Trends of rain fall for last 60 years; scenarios of rain fall in next 30 years Degree of temperature prevailing 2030, 2050, 2070 (min and max, over seasons) Area inundated by flood depth in 2030, 2050, 2070 Area (ha) under agricultural drought Area (ha) contaminated with salinity amount of Rain fall over seasons and by location in different years ( # of dry days; heavy rain spells Prediction modeling maps (scenarios) Area (ha) of crop loss due to flash flood Area (ha) of crop loss due to flood Area (ha) of crop loss due to draught, cold spell, access rain Tons estimated loss of rice Low carbon development # of sectors GHG inventory done # of GHG co-efficient established Early warning Cyclone and storm warning lead time increased compared to baseline Warning disseminated to # of people using cell broadcast (Cell phone) technology Examples Climate change integration

17. Infrastructures Mileage of coastal polders breached Mileage of polders over topped storm surges # Cyclone shelters/ schools/public buildings undergo inundation in normal flood season # of Upazila Risk zone for infrastructure delineated e.g. ( above 25 years flood return period depth) # of Public buildings withstand cyclone wind speed (e.g 240 km /hour) # of climate resilient habitat established # of climate resilient design ( e.g. fishing boat that withstand sea turbulence) # of Climate resilient building designed for different landscape and hazard prone areas Risk reduction and management Area under effective flood protection Kms of embankment developed Km of embankment upgraded to a height beyond predicted flood depth # of Upzila disaster risk management plan implemented # of local disaster risk management plan development and implementation Area (ha) under improved natural drainage % of households with safe drinking water in the coastal zone % of HH in CZ with sanitary latrine ExamplesSafety of interventions in a changing climate

18. Environment % of protected area, community Conservation Area (CCA) and Ecologically Critical Area (ECA) increased % marine protected area increased Area urban wetland (ha) protected Land zoning map developed considering changed conditions Ecosystem Area (ha) increase in productive forest cover (70 % tree density) Area (ha) assisted regeneration of natural forest Area of wetland sanctuaries established Mileage of connecting canals excavated Area of wetlands connectivity with river system established Area (ha) Jalmohals under co-management Area (ha) of swamp forest in haor basin regenerated and afforested ExamplesEnhance Resilience and adaptation

19. Agriculture Area (ha) under adaptive agricultural practices e.g. drip irrigation, mulching, diversification, etc Area (ha) under saline tolerant rice Area 9ha) under drought resistant variety, etc Area of fish sanctuary established Area of co-managed wetlands Energy MW of electricity generation from wind, solar and bio and micro-hydro MW of electricity saved through energy efficiency Energy efficient appliances and technologies Tons of Co2e GHG reduced from energy efficiency, efficient appliances, renewable energy generation and agricultural practices # of improved cooking stoves provided to HH Community # of community tour operator trained and engaged in eco-tourism in protected areas and ECAs # of community health assistant trained, certified and engaged in controlling water and vector borne diseases # of community group organized, registered, trained and engaged in wetland co management ExamplesEnhance Resilience and adaptation

20. Knowledge management # of adaptation options identified and tested # of awareness and sensitization book let prepared # of loss and damage tools developed # of training module and manual and guidelines prepared in poverty-environment-climate sensitive development # of guidelines developed for inclusive development # of guidelines developed for participation # of organizational development manual prepared Capacity building # of the professionals trained in Poverty – Environment – Climate integration and mainstreaming # of policies and strategies amended, rules of business adjusted Jolmahal leasing system converted in favor of pro-poor community based management Amount allocated in logistics for servicing emerging issues of the development Social communication # of community radio established # of thematic topics on air Hours of coverage in electronic media for PEC # of articles in printing media # of social event and # of people addressed ExamplesKnowledge Management