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Session 2. Financial Planning. Historical Analysis of Income Statement and Balance Sheet. Express all balances as a % of sales (POS). For each item examine trends in the POS over time. Compare POS with similar analysis of competitors and industry averages.
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Session 2 Financial Planning
Historical Analysis of IncomeStatement and Balance Sheet • Express all balances as a % of sales (POS). • For each item examine trends in the POS over time. • Compare POS with similar analysis of competitors and industry averages. • Consider technological advances and ability of your company to control POS. • Decide on a target/feasible POS for each item for your company.
Specify Items that Will Not Fluctuate with Sales • Interest • Taxes • Selling, General & Admin Expenses • Depreciation • Dividends • Net Property Plant Equipment
Specify Items that Will Not Fluctuate with Sales (Cont’d) • Long-term Debt • Shareholder equity • Cash • Short-term Debt • All Other Items
Balancing the Pro Formas • Use the percentages previously developed to complete the initial income statement and balance sheet. • NEVER insert an actual number. • ALWAYS use a formula (POS x Sales; % of TI x TI; etc.) • Never use a POS for an item that can be computed by adding and subtracting other items. • For example, compute Gross Profit as SALES-COS, not as GP% x Sales. • The balance sheet will almost certainly not balance.
Balancing the Pro Formas • If Liabilities & Equity > Assets: • Use excess cash as plug • If Assets > Liabilities & Equity: • Use ST debt as plug
Checking the Model • Once the pro formas are complete, compute all important ratios (e.g. ROE, ROA, NPM, Inv. T/O, Debt Ratio, etc.) • Examine carefully and contrast with historic ratios for the company. • Be sure to investigate all ratios that are very different from the historic analyses.
Sustainable Growth Rate • Internal Growth Rate = (R/Inc) • Assets • = (R/Inc) x Net Income x Equity • Net Income Equity Assets • = Plowback x Return on x (1 – Debt Ratio) • Ratio Equity • = b x ROE x (1-D/E)
Sustainable Growth Rate • If capital structure is not changed, we get: • Sustainable Growth Rate = Plowback ratio x ROE