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Grounded in Water: Climate Change and Australian Groundwater Resilience

Explore the impacts of climate change on Australian groundwater, focusing on rainfall patterns, recharge uncertainties, vulnerability, and adaptation strategies for water supply resilience. Learn about the challenges and potential solutions to mitigate the effects of a drying climate on groundwater resources in Southern Australia.

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Grounded in Water: Climate Change and Australian Groundwater Resilience

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  1. 181: Climate change and Australian groundwater Glen Walker, Francis Chiew, Russell Crosbie, Rick Evans, Luk Peeters IAH 2019, Malaga September 24 GROUNDED IN WATER

  2. Perth surface water supply GROUNDED IN WATER

  3. April - October rainfall: groundwater recharge for southern Australia Winter and spring rainfall is projected to decrease across southern continental Australia, with more time spent in drought. There has been a decline of around 11 per cent since the mid-1990s in the April–October growing season rainfall in the continental southeast. May–July rainfall has reduced by around 19 per cent since 1970 in the southwest of Australia. State of the Climate 2016 (BoM, CSIRO) GROUNDED IN WATER

  4. Modelling climate impacts on diffuse recharge

  5. Uncertainties and Bias Higher uncertainty than run-off models Elasticity decreased by shallow water tables, connection to streams and perching Indirect effects via changes in land use may dominate Flooding Large uncertainty not only with climate but with recharge estimation: Risk approach in water planning

  6. Vulnerability related to current extraction and ‘effective’ system size • Climate change matters if current groundwater extraction comparable to limit: spatially patchy • Thin groundwater lenses vulnerable during droughts • Requirements of GDEs and baseflow means small buffer even for regional systems • Vulnerability maps aid prioritization and communication

  7. Planning for scarcity Uncertainty in groundwater volumes translates to uncertainties about timing of actions: ADAPTATION

  8. Adaptation options • Alter extraction limit • demand management • Alter recharge • MAR • Land surface engineering • Changed land cover • Change balance of trade-offs • increased environmental, infrastructure, economic, social impacts • impacts managed in other fashions • Finding alternative sources e.g. desalination

  9. Perth water supply in future

  10. Conclusions • Australia is already feeling the effects of a drying climate in southern Australia, starting in the west: no longer a theoretical argument • Groundwater impacts amplify drying trends in rainfall • Groundwater impacts parallel surface water impacts spatially, but with greater spatial heterogeneity • Uncertainty in TIMING OF ACTIONS • Shift to climate resilient sources, including deeper groundwater, MAR and desalination

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