Decadal Survey Discussion Bruce Wielicki Science Team Lead CLARREO SDT Meeting

1. Decadal Survey Discussion Bruce Wielicki Science Team Lead CLARREO SDT Meeting University of Colorado LASP Boulder, CO May 16-17, 2018

2. 2017 Decadal Survey Released Jan 2018: Thriving on Our Changing Planet A Decadal Strategy for Earth Observation from Space, 700 pp.

3. 2017 Decadal Survey • Five Panels • Climate Variability and Change: Seasonal to Centennial • Weather and Air Quality: Minutes to Subseasonal • Global Hydrological Cycles and Water Resources • Marine and Terrestrial Ecosystems and Natural Resource Management • Earth Surface and Interior: Dynamics and Hazards • Steering Committee: 17 members (2 JPL, none from other NASA centers • Climate Panel: 17 members • Total Decadal Survey members ~ 100

4. 2017 Decadal Survey

5. 2017 Decadal Survey Factor of 3 short of Most Important Observables

6. 2017 Decadal Survey

7. 2017 Decadal Survey

8. 2017 Decadal Survey

9. 2017 Decadal Survey

10. 2017 Decadal Survey • NASA HQ working on Implementation Plan • First Venture Continuity Mission: competed replacement of cancelled Radiation Budget Instrument (RBI). Most of funds will come from existing RBI program. AO release in early 2019 • First 2 designated missions/observing systems: • Surface Biology/Geology ($650M) • Aerosol or CCP or Hybrid (<$800M to <$1600M) • Sequence for first two missions and responsible center established in early FY19 • What parts directed vs competition is not yet clear • First mission starts Phase A development in 2020, next as budget allows • Will fund 6 Designated Observable mission studies ($2M/yr)

11. 2017 Decadal Survey • NASA HQ working on Implementation Plan • Still working on Explorer class (<$350M) mission implementation • HQ is not certain yet how to deal with “Unallocated” Most Important Targeted Observables from Table 3.5 • They can compete for Earth Venture Instrument, Mission, and Suborbital (if appropriate) • Not clear if the “unallocated” will be allowed to compete for Venture Explorer competitions • Expect more information from HQ in the next several months

12. 2017 Decadal Survey • How does this affect CLARREO and future Reference Spectrometers? • Climate Panel Report (Chapter 10 of the Decadal Survey) ranked Reference Spectrometer observations to narrow uncertainty in climate sensitivity and cloud feedback their second highest priority and in the “Most Important” science objective category. Provided quantitative goals and references on how to achieve the objective. • Climate Panel indicated that process missions had no clear quantitative path to narrowing uncertainty in cloud feedback and needed further OSSE studies to determine what observations were needed. • Steering Committee ignored the Climate Panel recommendation and decided to rank a process cloud mission (radar/precipitation) ahead of reference spectrometers: i.e. unclear, unquantitative, and high risk short term observations versus quantitative and low risk long term observations. • Steering Committee recommended that Reference Spectrometers be pursued through Venture Continuity

13. 2017 Decadal Survey • CLARREO Pathfinder reflected solar mission remains a part of the Program of Record that the Decadal Survey considered critical to accomplishing the science objectives • How do we salvage some scientific progress on narrowing uncertainty in the cloud feedback/climate sensitivity science objective as described in the Climate Panel Report of the 2017 Decadal Survey? • Get CLARREO Pathfinder mission life extended to at least 5 years on ISS. We are not aware of any lifetime limiting hardware on the design, but low cost Class D will mean single string and higher risk electrical components. Probability of 5 year life is TBD but I would expect > 50%. • Extended Pathfinder mission would both provide a benchmark start for a long term cloud feedback climate record as well as document calibration drifts of key reflected solar climate instruments (e.g. CERES, VIIRS) • Get an infrared spectrometer in orbit as soon as possible. A demonstration 5 year mission would be lowest cost and might fit in a Venture Instrument/Mission/Continuity competition. • Continue to explore international collaboration to reduce costs (e.g. India, UK) • Continue to communicate the critical need to NASA HQ and science community.

14. 2017 Decadal Survey • Continue economic value studies and educating the climate science community on these new perspectives and methods. Wielicki is on the science advisory board of the new consortium led by Resources for the Future to advance the capability to carry out economic value studies of earth science space observations. This will be a growing area of research. • Continue to explore international collaboration to reduce costs (e.g. India, UK). Challenge here is that India has not shown past interest in joining competed proposals as team member with a commitment letter. They prefer a HQ designated mission like NISAR. UK Space Agency currently has very little funding. FORUM has potential but is not expected to be able to include CLARREO/Reference Spectrometer climate change level of accuracy in their design: but they are early in phase A studies so we will continue to monitor their progress. Marty Mlynczak from CLARREO team has been approached by FORUM as a potential NASA guest investigator on the team. • Continue to collaborate with GSICS (Global Space based Inter-Calibration System) to serve as their future reference spectrometers. • Continue to develop science, commercial, and international interest in the value and need for reference spectrometers and intercalibation.

15. 2017 Decadal Survey • Continue relevant OSSE studies. NASA HQ is interested in expanding OSSE efforts in general and there may be future ROSES calls for such studies which could point to the reference spectrometer Most Important science objective in the 2017 Decadal Survey as evidence for the strong need • Continue Far Infrared science through FORUM, ROSES calls, or field experiments. • Continue studies of the level of stability (or lack thereof) for current reflected solar and infrared instruments in order to clearly show the issues involved and the need for higher accuracy reference inter-calibration. These studies could easily fit future ROSES calls. • Continue studies of accuracy requirements for both infrared and reflected solar observations. Marty Mlynczak is currently completing such a study on accuracy requirements for LW cloud radiative forcing. • We need clearer examples of why stability + overlap won’t work for infrared imagers and sounders. Much of the science community is still used to this way of patching together a climate record and thinks its “good enough”. But we need more rigorous studies to demonstrate why or why not. In the reflected solar this is not an issue. The science community accepts that stability and overlap is not likely good enough.

16. 2017 Decadal Survey Other Thoughts?

17. 2017 Decadal Survey This is too important not to do!! Remain dedicated and creative in exploring options Successfully implement CLARREO Pathfinder as the first step