The Problem

1. Why the UK needs a new hub airport for LondonPresentation to the West London Sub Regional Transport Panel16 May 2013

2. The Problem • Aviation is hugely important to the UK economy • Hub airport capacity aggregates passengers and delivers global connectivity • Heathrow, the UK's hub airport, is full and can't meet the UK's needs • Demand is forecast to double by 2050 • "Heathrow is poorly connected to emerging markets" Heathrow spokesperson • Heathrow already accounts for 28% of people in Europe blighted by signficant disturbance from airports • A 3rd runway at Heathrow is not a long-term solution • The UK needs an alternative hub airport that provides greater connectivity without dire consequences for hundreds of thousands of people • The issue is urgent: the Uk is already losing significant trade to European hub airports

3. Aviation connectivity is key • Aviation connectivity has been and remains key to economic prosperity • Vital for trade, inward investment • A more multi-polar global economy means access to a wider range of destinations to secure that propserity • An effective hub airport is essential for that aviation connectivity… Forecast annual traffic growth to/from Europe (%), 2011-31

4. Why is a hub important? • A hub supports routes and frequencies that would otherwise not be viable • BA flights from Heathrow-New York JFK: 7½ flights per day (in 2007) • 39% of passengers are transferring at Heathrow – i.e. two planes' worth • 39 routes out of Heathrow have >50% transfer traffic • including Phoenix, Calgary, Mexico City, Hyderabad, Cape Town • A hub airport requires sufficient catchment area • population and economic profile  critical mass of flights • Heathrow accounts for 40% of all UK scheduled traffic… …but 80% of all UK direct scheduled longhaul traffic

5. Heathrow is falling behind… • Heathrow lacks the runway capacity • Increased delays and very poor resilience in the face of disruption • Severely constrains number of destinations served • Every slot has an opportunity cost (>£1m) • Established longhaul routes prioritised… • …at expense of less developed routes – including to vital emerging markets • Limited access for freighter services

6. Failing connectivity: UK-China Weekly direct frequencies to Mainland China Shenyang 4 Frankfurt 21 Frankfurt 21 Paris CDG 14 London LHR 14 Amsterdam 12 Munich 7 Helsinki Beijing 14 London LHR Qingdao 4 Frankfurt 33 Paris CDG 28 Frankfurt 18 London LHR 12 Amsterdam 7 Munich 7 Helsinki Nanjing 3 Frankfurt Shanghai 18 London LHR Chengdu 4 Amsterdam Wuhan 3 Paris Hangzhou Chongqing 4 Helsinki 4 Amsterdam 12 Paris CDG 7 Amsterdam 3 London LHR Xiamen Guangzhou 3 London LHR 3 Amsterdam

7. The need for a new London hubThe scale of the challenge – the Government’s Forecasts London Heathrow demand forecasts DfT 2011, ‘capacity unconstrained Passengers (mppa) Air traffic movements / yr Absolute maximum capacity of Heathrow Current throughput at Heathrow

8. The problems with Heathow • Heathrow is unsuitable for further expansion • Heathrow is located within a densely populated area and has flight paths over London. • 28 per cent of all people in Europe affected by aircraft noise are those affected by Heathrow – more than 700,000 people • After central London, Heathrow is the second major hot spot for poor air quality in London particularly with nitrogen dioxide • Runways are operating at 99% of their capacity • 60% of arriving aircraft are held in stacks, causing delays • Flight times from Amsterdam and Paris CDG have increased by 50% • Adverse weather e.g. snow causes delay and misery for thousands of passengers because of lack of spare capacity

9. Meeting the Uk's Aviation Challenge • Heathrow expansion is not the answer • A 3rd runway would not deliver the capacity needed to meet long term forecasts – the level of capacity needed cannot be provided at Heathrow • The environmental impacts of further expansion at Heathrow would be unacceptable • There would still be a need to develop a long term solution

10. Meeting the Uk's Aviation Challenge Options to be considered • A new hub airport for London – either in a new location to the east of London or at an existing airport site (Stansted) • If the necessary Government policy framework is put in place, a new airport could be delivered in a similar timescale to a third runway • A new hub airport could be located and planned to minimise environmental impacts and enable the UK to fully meet its economic potential

11. Criteria for new airport capacity • Economic • Supporting growth and regeneration; area with necessary resource capacity • Airport infrastructure • Sufficient runway/terminal capacity; optimised airport facilities • Airspace • Meets operational and safety-related requirements • Surface Access • Fast, direct road and rail access to key locations: London & Southeast, UK, Europe • Environmental • Minimises local impacts: noise, air quality, communities, wildlife/biodiversity • Deliverability • Can address planning and construction risk; value for money

12. The Mayor's emerging view Stansted Outer Thames Estuary Inner Thames Estuary

13. What happens to Heathrow? Several options, including: • Reduced size airport • Full or partial re-development of the site • Housing/more commercial land uses • Mayor will carefully appraise the relative merits of these options • This will be covered in more detail in our response to the Airports Commission in July Armageddon? No!

14. What to do with Heathrow? • "Relocation"of Heathrow to where it can expand to meet the UK's hub demand and support London's growth potential. • Long timescales to plan move and transitionary arrangements (done elsewhere, cycles of capital investment) • London can pro-actively manage this change and is a job creation dynamo (35,000/year forecast) • West London economy based on more than just access to Heathrow (labour and property markets). • Rapid surface access to new airport from across London and significant improvement in PT modal shift as part of long term transport planning. • Heathrow labour force mobile (45,000 in airlines) and already commute relatively long distances. • In the medium term residential redevelopment of 1,200 ha site with c.80,000 homes would trigger 46,000 jobs aligned with skill sets of surrounding residents.

15. Potential for Strategic Infrastructure Planning • Thames Gateway has 34% of the south east's total housing capacity on only 3% of the land. One third of London's housing capacity is in the Thames Gateway. • If GDP and GVA match the Greater SE’s regional averages, this would add £12 billion to the local economy by 2020.

16. Key milestones January 2011 November 2011 October 2012 November 2012 March 2013 July 2013 Late 2013 2015

17. Next Steps 2013 • July: Mayor to publish submission to Airports Commission • October: further analysis of options 2014 • Detailed presentation to sub regional transport panel • On-going dialogue post Airports Commission interim report Dec 2013

18. Contacts Rhiannon Hill - Programme Manager: rhiannonhill@tfl.gov.uk Guy Lavis - Exetrnal Affairs Lead: guylavis@tfl.gov.uk Chris Mills – Transport Planning Manager: christophermills@tfl.gov.uk