Holistic management of seasonal watersheds in Central México.

1. Holistic management of seasonal watersheds in Central México. Pedro Joaquín GUTIÉRREZ-YURRITA IPN _ CIIEMAD México, D. F., September, 18th2014

2. Highlights • River basins are dynamic over space and time. • Seasonality of watersheds is an important factor as a source of biodiversity. • Regulated rivers can be modeled as seasonal rivers. • The proposed model presents diagnostic and control indicators easy to measure. • This is the first model that really promotes a holistic management for seasonal basins.

3. Introduction • To provide drinking water to the population is a human right of great importance • The Central Mexico region covers an area close to 150,000km2 with an estimated population about of 49,123,993 people. • It represents the most densely populated region of Mexico. • Many people are dispersed in thousands of small ethnic communities scattered across the sierras, especially in natural protected areas, like Biosphere Reserve of Sierra Gorda.

4. Regional Problematic • In the agricultural fields as well as in the Sierras there are high rates of migration recorded for the reason that the field is considered an increasingly less profitable. • Agricultural fields and deciduous forest in middle and lowlands dominate landscapes of the area. • Oak and pine forests are confined at the top of the Sierra, covering part of the Trans Mexican volcanic belt and part of the Eastern and Western Sierra Madre

5. Area of study Central Mexico UnitedStates of America Mexico Anáhuac basin Gulf of Mexico Lerma-Chapala riverbasin PacificOcean Moctezuma-Pánuco riverbasin Guatemala

6. Statistics of Watersheds in Central Mexico * Anáhuac Basin is considered by National Water Commission like Waters of the Valley of Mexico . 1CONAGUA (2011); 2CONAGUA (2012); 3INEGI (2011); 4CSMN (2000). NOTE: In this work I prefer to call the basin by its original name for two reasons, the first is obvious, its original name is Anahuac and has a prehispanic meaning that marked the ideology of a people. And second, call Valley of Mexico has brought confusion on how to manage their water resources. And this confusion has made the basin is managed as a valley, or at most, as a exoreic basin, regardless of whether it really is a geologically young volcanic closed basin, home to a large lake divided into different sections by salinity.

7. Epistemological background Estimation of environmental flows is a hot topic resorted by hydraulic engineers, ecologists, planners and politicians, but far from being resolved, is practically in its beginnings of development. The lack of good predictive models is because they are constantly modifying management paradigms of nature, the way in which policy is made and how the ecosystem functioning is conceived. And now the human rights component, specifically speaking of the right to an environment adequate for its development, access to safe water, access to information, the right to take part in decision-making and access to justice is integrated. The paradigm of integrated watershed management, widely used in the early 90's, to determine ecological flows is now almost obsolete. Gore and Pettts 1989; Stalnaker et al. 1995; Tennant 1976; Poff et al. 1997; Richter et al. 1997; Bovee et al. 1998; García et al. 1999; King et al. 2000; Arthington et al. 2006; Tharme 2003; García de Jalón and González del Tánago 2004; González del Tánago and García de Jalón 2006; Arthington et al. 2006; NMX-AA-159-SCFI-2012; Deng et al. 2013, among others

8. The NMX-AA-159-SCFI-2012 The Official Mexican Standard (NOM-011-CNA-2000) published in 2002 deals with Conservation of Water Resources but only states that there are some specifications to determine the ecological flows of national rivers. The non official Mexican standard that establishes the methodology for calculating the minimum river flow was elaborated in 2012 The NMx Standard proposes three ways of measuring environmental flows: 1) Hydrobiological, which is what counts in a way aquatic wildlife in hydraulic systems to manage -Bovee et al. 1998 2) Conventional method to set the minimum and maximum flows -Tennant 976 3) A complex mixed method of the former proposals called Holistic method - King et al. 2000

9. The HOLISTIC approach Is worth noting two things respect to this approach that make it different from other similar approaches (consilience, integrative basin management or ecosystemic planning): to take special attention on the phenology of rainfall and the monthly mean humidity of the area. to use the knowledge of all the sciences that relate to nature and man, including politics and economics specific to the study area, but does not a synthesis of this knowledge Smuts 1966; Wilson 1999; Savory 2005; Gutiérrez-Yurrita 2009 This paradigm of gathering knowledge is able to analyze complex systems, such as planning in landscapes networking, under different perspectives in a systematic way simultaneously Margulesand Sarkar 2009; Gutiérrez-Yurrita et al. 2014; Gutiérrez-Yurrita 2014

10. Holistic river management GOAL Preserve landscapes/ Improvethequality of life DEFIANCE Environmental / Social-economical PERSPECTIVES Scientific / Realistic THE DICHOTOMY Environmentalpublicpolicies / Economicalstatepolicies THE GREAT CHALLENGE Provide a conceptual basisfordecision-making

11. Overcoming the major challenges For holistic studies provide a basis for decision-making, it is necessary to overcome three major challenges in the same political decision: State development policy: Public administration has a direct interference in development by its territorial planning strategies. And the concept of environmental justice under human rights new perspective: Eco-justice is distributive in character and that should not bear the entire burden of environmental conservation the inhabitant of the areas preserved or peasants with limited resources Martínez 2004 Social issues: Large bodies of epicontinental water built in Mexico and the regulation of riverbeds are used for various purposes, the most important are: drink water supply; irrigation; industrial; power generation; public services; and finally, preservation of environmental flows Article 41 of the National Water Act, amended on 29/04/2004 Environmental issues: Conservation of the ecological processes of ecosystems from the hydrological basins under the pressure that involve the extractive or transformative activities. Both issues overlapping like complex systems. They are not aggregated into a system unit (integration) but rather which are systems with emergent properties at each hierarchical level of organization Gutiérrez-Yurrita et al. 2014

12. Characteristics of the model constructed The mathematical model generated meets three conditions simultaneously: must have high degree of accuracy; variables must be easily measured; efficiency indicators must be easily monitorable continually and cost effectively. High degree of accuracy means that the variables taken into account serve as indicatorsof system diagnosis, effectiveness of controlmeasures and management and, to predictfuture scenarios following the same trend of uses and intensity of uses

13. Model operational considerations 1) To divide the river into reaches (Head, medium, mouth) 2) To consider that the river may have regulated sections and unregulated sections 3) Ecological and socioeconomic assessment of the basin under management 4) To take into account the current and potential uses of all resources and the services to be offered 5) To assign monetary value (price) to each non-produced assets (natural resources)

14. The ecocentric perspective of the model • Under the ecocentric perspective must be taken into consideration, at least the following factors: • Morphology and topography of the basin • Monthly and daily weather, relative humidity and sun hours every season • Physicochemical characteristics of water and geology • Average monthly flow rates as the hydroperiods and water regime • Ecological characteristics of networked ecosystems • Data are set in ordinal numbers unitless responding to system qualities, values range from 0-2 on each item.

15. Measuring landscape quality • Cp= f( F +VU + VI + E ) • Cp = QualityHedonicevaluation, contingencemethods... • F   = Fragilityresilience - functioning • VU= Vulnerabilityresponsiveness- structure • VI  = Visibilityviewshed - • E   = Aestheticintrinsic, cognitive and cultural conditions of • theobservers (locals and foreigners)

16. Seasonal distribution of macroinvertebrates 1400 Tecozautla river (unregulated stretch) Boyecito springs 20 1200 20 1000 15 15 800 Abundance of individuals 10 Number of orders 600 Number of orders 10 400 5 5 LEGEND 200 0 J A S O N D J F M A M J Mean hydrological regime 0 0 JL S O D JNR F MR MY JN Time (Months) Time (Months) Positive hydrological balance Hypothetical general curves for aquatic systems in SGBR 1400 Tecozautla river (regulated stretcht Assembly with dominant species Neutral hydrological balance 1200 20 Negativehydrological balance 1000 15 800 Number of Individuals Abundance of individuals Abundance of individuals of the keystone orders 600 10 Number of orders 400 Assembly with rare species 5 200 Diptera 0 0 JL S O D JNR F MR A MY JN J A S O N D J F M A M J Amphipoda Time (Months) Time (Months) Rarespecies Speciesassembly

17. The anthropocentric perspective (A) • Under the anthropocentric perspective, we take into account factual indicators of socioeconomic status of users of the networked basins: • Benefits that would have for the management of water • Present and potential welfares to keep the water system with historical flows • Consider a time series analysis of the uses of basin water resources • Estimate the efficiency and effectiveness in the present form of using water • The invasion of introduced species in rivers is facilitated by the alteration of flow regimes, so we need to estimate ecological impact of exotics to reduce inter-watershed transfers • Data are set in ordinal numbers unitless responding to system qualities, values range from 0-2 on each item.

18. The multifunctional landscape safewater irrigationwater electricitgeneration recreational fishing aquaculture preventenvironrisk

19. Overall functioning of a shallow water system Balance of turbidwater Turbidity Phytoplankton, algae Thesediment in suspension Nutrients in thewatercolumn Depth, hydroperiod Aquatic macrophytes Action of wind, waves allelopathicsubstances Periphyton CRAYFISH Zooplankton Fishes Light Penetration Balance of clearwater

20. Hydrological subject (H) • Water regime: the way in which the system filled with water up to the maximum annual average • Hydro-period: the rate at which water fills the system, the retention time and the time of loss of water until the system returns to the minimum flow • Extreme water flows (both minimum and maximum). Regular but extreme events include catastrophic rains (storms, flooding’s) or severe drought • Estimating temporal pulse of total water recharge system are determining factors in understanding ecological processes of seasonal rivers • Influence of artificial water bodies ostensibly alter the natural hydrology of the rivers, especially the hydroperiods of seasonal rivers • Data sets are in the same measuring units, like m3 ha-1 month-1.

21. General model influencing odonata diversity Odonata suborders Variations in the hydric regime due to human impacts Zygoptera Lower Higher Anisoptera Terrestrial vegetation diversity under natural conditions Higher Lower Highly regulated stretchs Few regulated strechts Few unregulated strechts Close-after Zimapan Dam (AZD) Far AZD Before the big Zimapan Dam Major impactas are Biological Major impactas are Physical Species richness of Odonata Head stretch Mouth stretcht Ecosections (sub-basins) of the Ecodistrict Moctezuma in SGBR

22. The economic model (SE) SEt+1= SEt+(It-DSEept)–(AGSEenpt+AGSEanpt+DGSEanpt)+(DISEenpt+DISEanpt)+(RSEept+RSEenpt+RSEanpt) Where: SEt+1=total assets at the end of the period; It=total non-produced environmental assets; SEt=total assets at the beginning of the period; AGSEenpt=depletion of non-produced economic assets; AGSEnapt=depletion of non-produced environmental assets; DGSEanpt=degradation of assets environmental non-produced; ΔISEenpt=change in non-produced economic assets; ΔISEanpt=change in non-produced environmental assets; RSEept=re-produced economic assets; RSEenpt=revaluation of non-produced economic assets; RSEanpt=re-evaluation of environmental assets not produced. Data sets are in the same measuring units, like m3 ha-1 month-1.

23. Global Environmental Value All of the five features that are assessed in each perspective and subject have three options of values: 0indicates that the system or variable is totally damaged, misused or abused to the maximum. 1indicates a middle conditions between 0 and 2. 2indicates exactly the opposite, the variable is well preserved and in their natural state The sum of the analysis of each one of the perspectives (ecocentric[E1-5] and anthropocentric [A1-5]) results in a value on a scale from zero to ten, depending of the qualitative value assigned on each item. Hydrological data are compared with each historical event recorded and are classified qualitatively using the same scale of 0, 1 and 2 for each item. GEVt+1=(E1+E2+E3+E4+E5) + (A1+A2+A3+A4+A5) + (H1+H2+H3+H4+H5)

24. Comparing scenarios The decision must come from comparing bottom lines of at least three scenarios taking into account that in managing a flow with minimum monthly flows, other ecological and economic elements are modified, usually decreases or eliminating altogether, as the final production of natural resources and produced changes Estimating the maximum flow rates achieved for that month, which would bring the economic system to have the same or more products obtain another balance, i.e. more water use does not necessarily lead to more production in a given season The third balance is obtained by considering environmental conditions closer to the natural average month. Data sets are in the same measuring units, like m3 ha-1 month-1. • Monthly final balance (MFB): MFB1=SE1+GEV1 MFB2=SE2+GEV2 MFB3=SE3+GEV3

25. Major events in the structure of an ecosystem Hydroperiod in DoñanaNational Park temporarymarsh Natural conditions in most of thetemporaryfreshwatermarsh Clear-waterequilibrium Abundantfood and shelter Regulation of natural hydroperiod Crayfishdensity 5 ind m2 Lowpredationactivity Macrophytes dominatethesystem No 4 months of natural flood Temperature 20°C 2.0cm carapacelength of crayfish Desirablescenario Yes Natural conditions in thetemporaryfreshwatermarsh in yearswithexcessiverainfallbut in othersyears hydroperiod isartificialy extended turbid-waterequilibrium Abundantfood and shelter Crayfishdensity 5 ind m2 Lowpredationactivity Algae dominatethesystem Yes 7 months of semi-natural flood Temperature 15-20°C 6-8 months of flooding 2.6cm carapacelength of crayfish Probable scenario No Artificial extension of the hydroperiod in somesites of thetemporaryfreshwatermarsh turbid-waterequilibrium 12 months of artificial flood Abundantfood and shelter Crayfishdensity 5 ind m2 Lowpredationactivity Algaedominatethesystem Yes Permanentflooding Probable scenario Temperature 12-20°C 3.6cm carapacelength of crayfish No

26. Conclusions • The seasonal river management issues should have geophysical, biological, ecological, social, and above all, economic aspects. • A region with severe problems in living standards is not able to protect their ecosystems without first satisfying their basic needs and some pleasures. • Seasonality of the rivers of central Mexico is one of the variables that promote high biodiversity of the region. • Communities of indigenous people, besides losing what little they have, will move to the cities or immigrate to the United States. The field was abandoned and the ecological integrity of ecosystems resilient will be lost before the next decade. These situations is because no systematic management of water resources with a holistic approach is applied by authorities, which is the result of a lack in models to estimate efficiently environmental flows.

27. Final remarks • A holistic approach to the management of watersheds would be favorable since it allows the evaluation of a comprehensive policy management, which would include a more ample focus considering the social, economic and administrative sectors of complete landscape. • The model I have developed presents diagnostic and control indicators easy to measure, which immediately tell us how the system behaves as. And the mathematical procedure used, a linear regression by separate and specific steps, which makes it easily application. This model is new and unique, by the moment.

28. Thankyou verymuch foryour attention Pedro Joaquín Gutiérrez-Yurrita CIIEMAD-IPN PGUTIERREZY@IPN.MX