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Problems top-down approach

Integrating top-down and bottom-up in ESD-evaluation P. Boonekamp ECN, Netherlands ECEEE/EU-workshop March 3, 2005, Brussels. Problems top-down approach. Appropriate aggregation level/variables to construct the reference trend and calculate energy savings

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Problems top-down approach

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  1. Integrating top-down and bottom-up in ESD-evaluationP. BoonekampECN, NetherlandsECEEE/EU-workshopMarch 3, 2005, Brussels

  2. Problems top-down approach • Appropriate aggregation level/variables to construct the reference trend and calculate energy savings • Not always focused on specific policy issues (e.g. cogeneration) • No results on contribution of policy measures • High uncertainty margins in total saving figures

  3. Problems Bottom-up approach • Interaction between saving options and program <–> program or EU-policy • Effect earlier policy / lagged effects • Effect horizontal policy measures and exogenous factors (prices, etc.) • Technical saving data / life time savings / behaviour savings / complicated cases • Confidential data • Substitution, primary effects, rebound

  4. Integrated approach (1) • Simulation of past energy trends per sector • Existing bottom-up scenario model with: • all energy systems and saving options • vintage approach for systems/options • all volume and structural factors • energy prices and costs of options • all policy measures (horizontal, specific) • Adaptations for historic evaluation: • historic inputs (all levels of aggregation) • fitting output to actual trends (all levels) • on/off switch for factors/policy measures

  5. Integrated approach (2) • Results from bottom-up simulation: • ‘Real’ total energy savings • Total policy contribution / autonomous savings • Contribution specific measures ESD • Overlap with effect horizontal measures, prices and other factors • Corrected(*) ex-ante targets, to be compared with realization • Example: Households in the Netherlands (1990-2000, based on statistical information and bottom-up monitoring) (*) for other exogenous factors than in formulating targets

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