Where You Are!

1. Where You Are! Economics 201 – Principles of Macroeconomics Monday and Wednesday from 2:00 to 3:15PM Discussion – Friday from 1:00 – 1:50PM Text: Macroeconomics, Principles & Applications, Hall & Lieberman, Cengage Learning, 6th edition. Course website: http://www.terpconnect.umd.edu/~jneri/Econ201

2. Who Am I Dr. John Neri Office Location: 1102B Morrill Hall Office Hours: Mand W: 10:30am - 11:30am

3. Illness or Family Emergency & Exams Important Steps to follow: • Pre-Notification: If you are sick or have a family emergency and cannot take an exam, you must contact Professor Neri before the exam. You must fill out the Request for Excuse form. • Written Verification: Illness or family emergency must be subsequently verified in writing by a physician, the Student Health Center • If both steps are not followed, you will not be excused from the exam

4. Students using the DSS facility must meet with me within the first 2 weeks of classes.

5. Advice!!! • Course is cumulative. • Important to keep up with the lectures, and readings each week. • We will have practice quizzes in the Friday discussion and review the answers. • The collection of quizzes from the Friday discussion constitutes a practice exam. I do not post old exams.

6. What/Who is ……. the current unemployment rate in the US? fiscal policy? the federal government budget deficit? the Federal Reserve System? the head of the Federal Reserve System? monetary policy?

7. A Little Macroeconomic History: 19th and early 20th century, Classical Theory/Classical Economist They focused on microeconomics Markets clear - they argued that market forces drive the economy toward full employment, possibly quickly. The economy self-corrects. If unemployment exist, wages would adjust(fall) to move the economy back to full employment.

8. A Little Macroeconomic History: • 1929 to 1933: The Great Depression • Worldwide economic crisis. • Total amount of goods and services produced in the U.S. fell by more than 25%. • Unemployment up to 25%. • A lot of unemployment for a long period of time.

10. A Little Macroeconomic History: • 1936: John Maynard Keynes, “The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money” • Replaces classical theory with theory based on: • Aggregate (Total) Demand • Wage and price rigidities • Markets don’t clear and it may take a • long time for the economy to “self-correct” • Birth of Macroeconomics as a field separate from microeconomics

11. A Little Macroeconomic History: Keynes believed government should intervene in the economy to stimulate the level of output and employment During periods of low private demand, the government should take action to stimulate aggregate (total) demand to lift the economy to full employment. Keynes was not a socialist. He was a capitalist. He simply felt capitalism could be unstable.

12. A Little Macroeconomic History: Private demand? Public demand? What can the government do to stimulate aggregate total demand (private and public) to lift the economy out of recession? Big, Big Question – does this stuff work? Almost 80 years later still debating this!

13. A Little Macroeconomic History: • 1940’s – WWII – large increase in government spending (public demand) • 1950’s – Korean War (more public demand) • 1960’s – Kennedy tax cut in the early 60’s (very Keynesian, cut taxes to stimulates private demand). 1960’s very prosperous decade. • 1960’s – Johnson, Great Society/ Viet Nam – large increases in government spending. But this lead to inflation.

14. A Little Macroeconomic History: • 1970’s – Oil price increase. • A supplyshockto the economy and a shock to macroeconomics. • Challenge to Keynes. • 1980’s – Reagan, Supply-side Economics. Cut taxes, people will work harder, invest more, produce more. Incomes grow and tax revenues grow. • 2008-2009 - Keynesian ideas once again at the center of heated debate

15. Chapter 5 What Macroeconomics Tries to Explain: • Macroeconomics examines the economy as a whole. • Focuses on total national income instead of individual income. • Deals with aggregates (total) such as • aggregate consumption and investment. • Looks at the overall level of prices • instead of individual prices.

16. Examples of Macroeconomic Questions • What causes inflation? • Why is the unemployment rate sometimes high and sometimes low? • Why do some national economies grow faster than other national economies? • What might cause interest rates to be low one year and high the next? • How do changes in the money supply affect the economy? • How do changes in government spending and taxes affect the economy

17. Microeconomics • Examines the functioning of individual industries and the behavior of individual decision-making units – a business firm, an individual, an industry, a single market. For example: • What level of output does a firm produce? • What price does a firm charge for the good it produces? • How does a consumer determine how much of a good he or she will buy?

18. INTRODUCTION TO MACROECONOMICS aggregate behaviorThe behavior of all households and firms together. sticky pricesPrices that do not always adjust rapidly to maintain equality between quantity supplied and quantity demanded.

19. Three Major Macroeconomic Goals • Economic growth – Growth in Output • how much we produce and can we keep it growing • High Employment – Low Unemployment • Stable Prices – Low stable inflation

20. Economic Growth 1. Economic growth • Defined as the increase in total production of goods and services that occurs over long periods of time • Real gross domestic product (real GDP) • Total quantity of goods and services produced in a country over a year • Also called “total output”

21. Economic Growth • When real GDP rises faster than the population, output per person rises • GDP per Capita rises • Average standard of living rises • From 1929 to mid-2011 • Real GDP increased dramatically • Real GDP per Capita increased dramatically • Rate of growth varied

22. Shows real GDP - total annual U.S. production of goods and services (valued at 2005 prices) from 1930 through 2011. Real GDP has grown dramatically, much faster than the population. As a result, real GDP per capita has grown rapidly as well – NEXT SLIDE U.S. Real GDP: 1929 -2011

23. (b) U.S. Real GDP Per Capita: 1929 -2011

24. The Business Cycle Rate of growth varies • Expansion • Period of increasing real GDP • Recession • Period of significant decline in real GDP • Severe or mild • Can last several years or less than a single year

25. peak trough • Over time, real GDP fluctuates around an overall long-run upward trend. Such fluctuations are called business cycles. When output rises, we are in the expansion phase of the cycle; when output falls, we are in a recession. The Business Cycle

26. peak +3% -2% +4% trough The Business Cycle • Over time, real GDP fluctuates around an overall long-run upward trend. Such fluctuations are called business cycles. When output rises, we are in the expansion phase of the cycle; when output falls, we are in a recession.

27. The Business Cycle Output Growth expansion or boom The period in the business cycle from a trough up to a peak during which output and employment grow. contraction, recession The period in the business cycle from a peak down to a trough during which output and employment fall.

28. The Business Cycle • Depression • An unusually severe recession • 1929-1933 • U.S. output dropped by more than 25 percent • Since 1950 • Three severe recessions (in 1974–75, 1981–82, and 2008–2009) • And several more mild ones

29. Real GDP- Shaded Areas Indicate Recessions

30. Questions - Economic Growth • What causes Expansions and Recessions? • • What has caused the current recession - • often referred to as the “Great Recession”? • • What macroeconomic policies can be used to • offset recessions or to sustain expansions?

31. Second Macroeconomic Goal 2. High Employment(or low unemployment) • Unemployment • Affects the distribution of economic well-being among our citizens • Economy is not achieving its full economic potential • Unemployment rate • Percentage of the workforce that is searching for a job but hasn’t found one

32. Unemployment rate fluctuates over time. During the Great Depression, unemployment was extremely high, reaching 25 percent in 1933, and plunged as the United States entered WW II. From the end of the war into 2011, it averaged 5.7%, with dramatic spikes upward during recessions, such as the mid-1970s, the early 1980s, and 2008 to 2011. Unemployment Rate: 1920 - 2011

33. High Employment • Unemployment rate is never zero • There are always somepeople looking for work • Even when the economy is doing well • Employment Act of 1946 • Federal government to “promote maximum employment, production, and purchasing power” • Full Employment and Balanced Growth Act, 1978 • Called for an unemployment rate of 4 percent

34. Unemployment unemployment rateThe percentage of the labor force that is unemployed. Number of Workers Unemployed Labor Force • Computing the unemployment rate for the months of July 2009 and July 2012: • 2009 2012 • Labor force: 154.5 million 155.0 million • Employed: 140.0 million 142.2 million • Unemployed: 14.5 million 12.8 million Unemployment rate2009 = Unemployment rate2012 =

35. Recent History - Unemployment Rate : Jan. 2002 to Dec. 2012 7.8% 4.6% In this last recession: Number of people unemployed increased from 7 million to 14 million

36. Questions: Unemployment Rate • What causes unemployment to rise and fall? • Can Monetary and Fiscal Policies be used to keep the unemployment rate low? • What are the obstacles?

37. Third Macroeconomic Goal 3. Stable Prices • Inflation rate • Percentage increase in the average level of prices • Zimbabwe: mid-November 2007 to mid-November 2008 • Price roses by 89,700,000,000,000,000,000,000 percent (89.7 sextillion.) • During the last few weeks of that period, prices were doubling every day

38. In most years, the inflation rate has been positive. • During some periods (after World War II, and a few years in the 1970s and early 1980s), the U.S. experienced double-digit inflation. For the last two decades, however, the U.S. inflation rate has been very low. U.S. Annual Inflation Rate, 1920–2011

39. Inflation and Deflation InflationAn increase in the overall price level. HyperinflationA period of very rapid increases in the overall price level. DeflationA decrease in the overall price level. Dis-inflation a decrease in the rate of increase in the overall price level

40. INFLATION AND DEFLATION Inflation is measured as the percent increase in the overall price level: % per year Price of IPhone 2008 = $50.00 Price of IPhone 2009 = $60.00 Percent increase = ?

41. Examples of Hyperinflation: 1980s and 90s

42. Recent examples of government attempts to stimulate the economy: Bush Administration: Economic Growth and Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2001 – reduced individual income tax rates. Set the stage for the “fiscal cliff” debate last year. Economic Stimulus Act 2008 (Bush Administration tax rebates in 2008) Obama Administration: American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) of 2009 - $787 billion combination of spending and tax cuts.

43. US Federal Debt Held by the Public as a Percentage of GDP, from 1790 to 2013, Projected to 2038

44. Macroeconomic Controversies • Disagreements on issues reflect both different positive economic views • - cause and effect, what is • As well as normative difference • - judgment, opinion, values, what should be

45. Final Item The Circular Flow Diagram circular flowA diagram showing the income received and payments made by each sector of the economy.

46. Simple Circular Flow The circular flow diagram shows the income received and payments made by each sector of the economy.