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MPAT TEMPEST EXPRESS-8 HAWAII 22-29 JULY 2005. Scenario Brief. 16 July 05. UNCLASSIFIED. Horn of Africa. Azuria. Azuria Facts. Size: 660,657 sq km Terrain: principally desert, mostly flat to undulating plateau rising to hills in the north

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  1. MPAT TEMPEST EXPRESS-8 HAWAII 22-29 JULY 2005 Scenario Brief 16 July 05 UNCLASSIFIED

  2. Horn of Africa

  3. Azuria

  4. Azuria Facts • Size: 660,657 sq km • Terrain: principally desert, mostly flat to undulating plateau rising to hills in the north • Climate: December to February-NE monsoon, moderate temperatures in north, very hot in south. May to October- SE monsoon, torrid in north, hot in south • Natural resources: minerals, oil reserves • Natural hazards: earthquakes, droughts, cyclonic disturbances and flash floods, dust storms

  5. Azuria Facts-2 • Population: 9.1 million • Ethnic Groups: • Azuri 85% • Druids 12% • French, Arab, Ethiopian, Italian, Others 3% • Religion: Muslim 94%, Christian 6% • Language: Azuri (Official), French, Italian, English, Druid

  6. Azuria Facts-3 • Capital: Djibouti City • Government: no permanent national government-Transitional Federal Government is only “national” body • Economy: Agriculture, herding, foreign aid • Military: none at national level. Three major factions have separate forces.

  7. Early History • Arabs control Gulf of Tadjoura area until 16th century-Druid sultans take over. • 1862-French arrive to counter British presence in Aden • 1880s- Britain and Italy occupy different parts of Horn of Africa and establish colonies • 1888-French build Djibouti City, which becomes trans-shipment point for Ethiopia hinterland. • 1960-British and Italian colonies become independent Republic of Azuriland • 1977-French colony becomes independent country of Djibouti • 1982 both countries unite as the Republic of Azuria

  8. Recent History 1999-2004 • Inter-clan conflict, competition for resources result in large IDP population (375,000) • Ethiopian treatment of Druid minority forces refugees to flee to Azuria • Oil reserves in Gulf of Aden developed • Azuria national structure breaks down, three factions control country: • Druid Independence Movement • Southern Azuri Federation • Republic of Northern Azuriland

  9. Azurian Factional Boundaries

  10. Key Events 2005 • Piracy attacks in Gulf of Aden • Factions separate and seek resumption of international aid • Factions agree to cease fire, but severe skirmishes continue as do clan disputes • Druid faction allegedly receiving support from Ethiopia Druids • Aid agencies return • Earthquake strikes further damaging Djibouti City • Floods hit Mogadishu • Avian influenza breaks out in Ethiopia

  11. Avian Flu Outbreak

  12. Djibouti Earthquake

  13. Mogadishu Floods

  14. Key Events 2005 continued • Factions sign Nairobi Agreement • Cessation of hostilities • Border protocol • Formation of Transitional Federal Government • UN Security Council Resolution 5440 • Welcomes US as lead nation for MNF up to six months • Provides mandate • Authorizes all necessary means • Declares intent to establish follow on PKF – India to provide PKF commander

  15. DC Camps

  16. UN Resolution Mandate • Ensure cessation of hostilities among the factions • Maintain separation of factions • Establish temporary border regime • Support SRSG efforts to resolve future of Transitional Federal Government, including conduct of elections • Facilitate establishment and maintenance of public safety and law and order • Support establishment of conditions to allow international / regional organizations to provide humanitarian assistance

  17. Coalition Task Force “Kokua” • U.S. Pacific Command issues Warning Order to CCTF 15 Jun 05 • Coalition consists of five countries: US (lead), Malaysia, Thailand, Mongolia, United Kingdom • Other nations intend to provide assistance during the same time but not as formal part of the coalition-most will be part of the follow-on PKF as well • US core planners conduct initial mission analysis/deploy to Djibouti City 15 July 05 • Additional coalition force planners, LNOs, planners for follow on PKF arrive by 21 July 05

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