CIDA Carbon Sequestration Project Ian Caldwell ( 伟义安 ) University of Toronto, Dept. of Geography 22 June 2004

2. Carbon Sequestration Capacity Enhancement and Economic Policy Development for Liping County Using Integrated Assessment with Multi-Criteria Decision Making CIDA Carbon Sequestration Project Ian Caldwell (伟义安) University of Toronto, Dept. of Geography 22 June 2004

3. Outline • Introduction • Integrated Assessment: • Theory and Method • Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) • Conceptual Model

4. Study Site:Guizhou Province，Liping County Liping Guizhou

5. Liping County - 黎平县 Townships Minorities

6. Sources of Data • Remote Sensing Images • In Situ Measurements • Forest, Soil, and Carbon Models • Surveys • Census Data • Government Policy

7. Research Questions • What is best practice Integrated Assessment? • How does using GIS improve the IA process? • How does Multi-Criteria Decision-Making improve IA? • What unique challenges face researchers using IA in China?

8. What is Integrated Assessment? • Integrated Assessment: • Is interdisciplinary • Supports decision-making • Includes the participation of stakeholders (from Rotmans and van Asselt, 1999)

9. Theoretical Support for IA “the notion of separate and distinct fields of science no longer has any validity as an intellectual position” (David Byrne, 1998) • Thus IA has an important role in filling and bridging the gaps between different research disciplines, while including a explicit goal to create benefits beyond the research communities

10. Key Strengths and Weaknesses of IA • Strengths: • A tool for communication • Exploration of interactions and feedbacks • Weaknesses: • Inadequate treatment of uncertainties • Limited calibration and validation (Rotmans and van Asselt, 1999) • Overall, the role of stakeholders in IA projects is uncertain, missing, or overly optimistic as to extent of the effective participation

11. Criteria for IA • Possible criteria include: • Rate and amount of Carbon Sequestration • Income rates • Carbon Market prices • Minority/Gender Equality • Important to consider the quality of the criteria in terms of: • analytical quality • methodological quality • usability (Rotmans and van Asselt, 2003)

12. The IA Process • Create a conceptual model • Data Collection and Organization: • Scale, units, qualitative versus quantitative, temporal, spatial • Individual Model creation: • Separate models for different components • Carbon sequestration • Income • Tree growth • Labour • Social Impacts • Linkages between models: • Identify and create relationships between dependent and interdependent models • IA Model Calibration: • Input from experts/workshop for weights on model components • Ranking of different scenario/policy outcomes • Treatment of uncertainty • Results of IA: • Outcomes of different scenarios • Ranges of impacts and influence of different components • Decision-making support for different policy and planning options

13. Multi-Criteria Decision Making • Precedent for use of MCDM in IA • Bell et al (2003), Greening and Bernow (2004) • Different types of MCDM • Use of specific MCDM methods • Ease of use • Ease of understanding (by stakeholders, etc.) • Range of results • If multiple models give a similar result, then increased confidence

14. MCDM Methods • Major steps for MCDM in IA: • Create a finite number of alternatives • Stakeholder/Expert ranking of importance of criteria in IA Model • Importance of criteria used to create weights for each criteria • Weights input into MCDM decision matrix, showing how each individual criteria performs against a specific alternative • Result of MCDM decision matrix returns the best choice of alternatives as a result of the specific weights given (this will differ among different MCDM methods)

15. MCDM Methods • There are many different MCDM methods: • Weighted Product Model (WPM) • Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) • Elimination and Choice Translating Reality (ELECTRE) • Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) • Also, the challenge of how to decide which decision-making process is best.

16. Evaluation of MCDM Methods • One key evaluative criteria: • An effective MCDM method should not change the indication of the best alternative when an alternative (not the best) is replaced by another worse alternative (given that the relative importance of each decision criterion remains unchanged) (Triantaphyllou, 2000) • Hence, the inclusion of a variety of MCDM methods in the IA model allows comparison of results and a way to evaluate the usefulness of an MCDM method for a particular alternative.

17. Sample Application of MCDM • Weighted Product Model (WPM): • Alternatives are compared with each other by multiplying the ratio of the criteria of two alternatives, raised to the power of the relative weight. If R(AK/AL) is greater or equal to one, than it indicates that AK is better than AL Performance Values (Cx=Criteria, Ax=Alternative) In this example, A1 is the best alternative since it is better (>1) than the other alternatives. Overall, the ranking of alternatives is: A1 > A2 > A3 (Adapted from Triantaphyllou, 2000)

18. IA Conceptual Model Environmental Models: - Soil/Water - Carbon Sequestration - Tree Growth Rates Stakeholder/ Expert Workshop: Weights and MCDM Environmental Indicators Economic Models: -Income rates - Carbon credit - Tree species profit - Other local business opportunities GIS / Remote Sensing Output: Results of Scenarios and Policy Options IA Model: Interaction and Interdependencies of indicators Economic Indicators Scenario/ Option Creation MCDM Models Social Indicators Social Models: - Labour Requirements - Gender Division of Labour Policy Issues: - "Grain for Green" 80/20 - Development Initiatives

19. Environmental, Social and Economic Models MODEL INPUT OUTPUT Soil erosion/ degradation, water availability Remote Sensing, In Situ data Soil and Water ? Tree species, area planted, age of stand Direct Income from Economic Tree Crops Economic Tree Market In Situ measurements: tree species, density, water, soil Tree Growth Tree growth rates Economic Tree Indirect Market Income from economic tree processing Economic tree type, labour Agricultural Plots Land Use Change Land Use Sources of income: agriculture, factory, state Present / Future Income Rates (by Gender/ Ethnicity) Non-Forest Income Survey and Census data Labour pool availability, skill level Labour Surveys and Census Data Hours of Labour by Type Gender Division Amount of Carbon Sequestration Income from Carbon Credits (national/int'l scale) Carbon Market Carbon Sequestration Amounts and Rates Remote Sensing, LAI, NPP, NEP Carbon Sequestration

20. Overall Goals • Increase the amount of Carbon Sequestration • Sustainable Economic Development • Create policies to guide these two goals • Test different scenarios for effectiveness and desirability of policy options • Improve understanding of the Liping County Enviro-Socio-Economic System

21. Future Directions • How will the needs and rights of minorities and women be addressed in the integrated assessment process so that the resulting policies do not disadvantage either group under increased development? • How will the results of a detailed IA for Liping County be generalized for use in other areas of China? • How will the long-term usefulness of the IA model be measured/monitored?

22. The End • Questions and Comments?