Presentation Transcript

1. AFWA UpdateSpring 2011John Zapotocny 13 April 2011 Approved for Public Release – Distribution Unlimited
2. Overview Mission and Organizational Structure 1st Weather Group NCEP SPC & AWC Backup Events (15 OWS) 2nd Weather Group NESDIS VAAC Backup Events (2 WS) Volcanic Ash Forecasting Improvements (16 WS) WRF Status & Plans (16 WS) HQ AFWA – Ops Status & Near Term Initiatives Ops Center Consolidation (A3) UKMO Unified Model Integration (A5/8) Joint Urgent Operation Need (JUON) Effort (A5/8) Air Force Weather Web Services (AFW-WEBS) Progress Report (A5/8)
3. AFWA Mission Maximizing America’s Power through the Exploitation of Timely, Accurate, and Relevant Weather Information; Anytime, Everywhere Atlas V EELV Launch Joint USAF/USA Patrol near Balad AB C-17 F-22
4. AFWA Structure FOA Commander Offutt AFB, NE 22 GSUs A3 Offutt AFB A 5/8 Offutt AFB A 6 Offutt AFB CC Staff: DP, DS, FM Offutt AFB 1st Weather Group Offutt AFB 2nd Weather Group Offutt AFB 2 SYOS Offutt AFB 14 WS Asheville, NC 15 OWS Scott AFB, IL 25 OWS D-M AFB, AZ 2 WS Offutt AFB 2 CWSS Hurlburt Fld, FL 26 OWS Barksdale AFB, LA 16 WS Offutt AFB
5. 1 WXG Three Operational Weather Squadrons (OWSs) Characterize the environment in USNORTHCOM AOR 15 OWS (Scott AFB) / 25 OWS (D-M AFB) / 26 OWS (Barksdale AFB) Ops Mission – provide 24/7 timely, accurate and relevant weather information to AF, Army, Guard & Reserve forces Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts for 97 airfields Resource Protection for 348 Total Force locations Graphical aviation forecasts for North America Aircrew mission-execution weather briefings Training Mission – provide initial and up-grade training for 60% of weather career field accessions (enlisted and officer) 1st Weather Group Offutt AFB 26 OWS Barksdale AFB, LA 15 OWS Scott AFB, IL 25 OWS D-M AFB, AZ Developing Airmen F-16s flying an Operation Noble Eagle combat air patrol over the East Coast. Characterization / Threat Assessment Mission Execution
6. Operational Backup15 OWS NCEP SPC/AWC backup mission has fully transitioned to 1 WXG 15 OWS at Scott AFB, IL Events since May 2010 Storm Prediction Center – 3 real-world backups Aviation Weather Center – 3 real-world backups 13 successful rehearsals System infrastructure for SPC/AWC staff relocation in case of a catastrophic outage is retained at Offutt AFB
7. 2 WXG Global Production Center – Collection, Analysis, Forecasting, Distribution DoD’s only ‘real-time’ 24/7 weather production for intelligence ops DoD's only ‘real-time’ 24/7 space environment analysis/forecast capability for JSpOC, NORAD, Space Operators, HF, and GPS users DoD’s lead agency for decision-enabling applied climatology and weather modeling & simulation DoD’s only provider for global volcanic ash advisories Collect/process/disseminate meteorological and space weather info Critical reachback node for war fighters worldwide Develop and exploit state-of-the-art weather forecasting models and web services to enhance joint military and intelligenceoperations Provide scientific services to improve forecasting for the war fighter Fielded wx system SMEs; conduct test/eval, wx systems deployment training, and deployed maintenance on tactical wx systems 2nd Weather Group Offutt AFB 2 SYOS 2 WS 2 CWSS Hurlburt Fld, FL 14 WS Asheville, NC 16 WS Dust Transport Algorithm Surface Visibility Tactical Air Control Party In the Fight FOB Warhorse Balad, Iraq World Wide Merged Cloud Analysis Global Assimilation of Ionospheric Measurements SWA Dust Visibility Restriction Climatology Forward Deployed Global Hawk Operations
8. Operational Backup2 WS NESDIS – Washington Volcanic Ash Advisory Center Real-world or training backup is required at least quarterly AOR includes CONUS, Northern South America, Caribbean, Pacific Ocean to include Hawaii and Guam, and western Atlantic (blue area) 5 short-term real-world backups (lasting a few hours) Communications Outage (1) Power Outage (2) Fire Drill (1) Manning Issue (1) 3 successful scheduled rehearsals
9. Volcanic Ash Initiatives16 WS HYSPLIT Community model developed by Air Resources Lab (ARL/NOAA) Offline model driven by NWP winds to provide volcanicash dispersion and concentration forecasts Transitions to operations by Summer 2011 WRF-Chem for Volcanic Ash NOAA/ESRL, Univ. of Alaska-Fairbanks, AFWA WRF with in-line GOCART chemistry module – 3D trajectories/particle heights, mass concentration, deposition, and ash fall accumulation Data assimilation efforts are ongoing Ensemble mode under investigation to provide uncertainty information HYSPLIT WRF-Chem for VA
10. Dust Modeling Initiatives16 WS Improved Dust Source Regions from DesertResearch Institute (DSR) Accounts for pedologic, hydrologic, chemical, biological, & geomorphic processes along with topography To include Arabian Peninsula, Egypt, Northern CENTCOM; IOC - Nov 11 DTA-WRF 15/45-km and DTA-GFS(SWA, East Asia, Northern Africa) Dust concentration and visibility products (4x daily) WRF-Chem Dust Dust concentration and visibility products using an inline chemistry model and state-of-the-art physics (diagnostic and stochastic forecast products) Increased horizontal resolution (4-km) DA-WRF 45-km to72 hrs (Vis) 30-km to 144 hrs (Stochastic DLP-Dust Lofting Potential); Africa/SWA
11. Cloud Forecasting Initiatives 16 WS AFWA Advect Cloud Model (ADVCLD) Global short range cloud cover prediction model Uses GFS winds (U, V, and W) to “advect” clouds forward in time Improved version - Jun 11 AFWA Diagnostic Cloud Forecast Model (DCF) Regional & Global cloud cover prediction model Uses statistical correlations to compute forecasts DCF 15-km Total Cloud Cover Cloud Optical Properties (COP) Algorithms improve cloud top height assignment and identify transmissive cirrus clouds (ice) Used in cloud analysis model- IOC 4CY11 Current Cloud Mask COP Cloud Mask Satellite Image
12. WRF at AFWA16 WS WRF Operational Configuration 57 Vertical Levels 10 mb model top Kain-Fritsch Convection 45km, 15km, & 5km domains YonseiUniv PBL Physics LIS - LoBCfrom NOAH LSM WRFDA – Transitioning to GSI 72hrs, 48 or 144hrs, & 30hrs Near-Term Plans Initialize WRF with UK Unified Model run at AFWA Implement hi-res (5/1.67km) domains in conjunction with Joint Unified Operational Need Statement (JUONS) Implement regional ensembles—N & S Hemisphere w/Tropical Stripe circa 20km; 2-6 relocatable 4km domains Control member may supplant 15km deterministic domains Adjust design to account for JUONS requirements
13. HQ AFWA & Near Term Initiatives of Interest
14. A3 Operations, Training and Evaluations Lead AFWA Operations Center 24x7x365 Operate the AFW HUD: Maintain awareness of 800+ AFWWS components and global weather operations Standards/Evaluations (SEPWO), Tactics, Metrics Develop non-formal weather training (CBTs) and COMET Liaison Provides AFWA Notices to the Field: interface for AFW policy, AFWA production environment, lead command , A-staff, and the user community DMSP coordinator and user representative A3 Director Offutt AFB A3O Current Operations A3T Training A3V Standardization and Evaluations OL-H Ft. Huachuca DMSP F-18, launched 18 Oct 2009 AFW Heads Up Display AFWA Ops Center Similar Concept to DoD Air/Space Operations Center Knowledge Center Intellipedia F-16 Departs Balad AB on CAS Mission https://afwkc.csd.disa.mil
15. AFWA Ops Center Operations Focal Point - 24x7x365 Requirements – AFWA/CC org box is AFWA Front Door AFWA.CC@offutt.af.mil Entry point for operational support needs & new requirements AFWA Ops Center extends AFWA/CC org box monitor to 24x7x365 Problem Reports/Ops Coord – AFWA Ops Center Single Telephone entry point DSN 271-2586 Commercial (402) 294-2586 Toll Free (800) 250-1750 NIPR AFWAOperationsCenter@offutt.af.mil SIPR AFWAOperationsCenter@offutt.af.smil.mil COPC Focal Point for All Operational Issues
16. Display status of AFWA internal production systemsand external infrastructure Displays status of AF Weather fielded systemsin KML format with wide choice of overlays AFWA Ops Center Operations Focal Point 24x7x365 Fielded Systems Monitoring Internal/External Production Monitoring
17. A5/A8 Strategic Plans, Requirements and Programs A5/8 Director Offutt AFB Performs capabilities-based requirements development for AFWWS Plans, Programs & Fields AF Weather Weapon System Directs Sustainment of Fielded Programs Worldwide Coordinates with DoD and National Weather Agencies A5C Capabilities A5R Operational Capability Requirements A8F Lead Command Management A8P Programs A8X Strategic Plans OL-K Norman, OK FMQ-22 AFW WEBS TMQ-53 WxPod https://weather.af.mil HH-60G Pave Hawk helicopter rescue mission from Balad AB PDR
18. Unified Model at AFWA UM Integration into Operations Implement initial capability at 25km global resolution Initial & Lateral Boundary Conditions for regional WRF domains Transitioning many regional worldwide domains (45/15/5km resolution) to fewer larger domains (15/5km resolution) to 144hrs Serve data to warfighters via AFW Web Enterprise Services Upgrade resolution to ~17km in support of Joint Unified Operational Needs Statement Used to drive very hi-res regional WRF domains (5/1.67km) Expand to 384hr forecast length for long-term ops planning Investigating prospects of enhancing National Unified Ensemble with UM members – NUOPC interest item
19. JUONPersistent Surveillance System High-res models to support PSS aerostats Collaborating w/ UKMO, NCAR, ARL UM: 17km global WRF: 5km SWA and 1.67km Iraq/Afghanistan domains 3DWF: 50m over select locations New HPC to run models 51 Tflops - Unclass, 14 Tflops - Secret Collecting/encoding automated aerostat observations for resource protection, WRF initialization Surface data in METAR format Upper air data in AMDAR format USJFCOM Photo of PGSS by Air Force Staff Sgt. Vanessa Valentine Photo downloaded from Lockheed Martin PTDS website
20. AFW-WEBS Update AFW Enterprise Portal IOC achieved Unclass/Secret (SCI Apr 2011) Optimizing MetWatch tools Add’l Satellite Enhancements Drawing Tools A/N Obs/TAFs Web Feature Service request Integrated Styles into services Further customization of data Save Preferences capability 20
21. AFW-WEBS Up Next Integrate Google Earth Plug-in Ingest 100% of Level III NEXRAD data Further improve meteograms/Skew-T Develop in “Flex”—interactive Continue transition off JAAWIN Expand product suite Analysis products Specialized Models Develop add’l user features User-defined thresholds Sharing profiles Value-added Interactive Web Applications & Services Integrate OWS holdings 21 21
22. Questions?