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Comments on GAINS project

Comments on GAINS project. 3-5 October 2007 IAEA HQs, Vienna Kiyoshi ONO Japan Atomic Energy Agency. General comments.

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Comments on GAINS project

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  1. Comments on GAINS project 3-5 October 2007 IAEA HQs, Vienna Kiyoshi ONO Japan Atomic Energy Agency

  2. General comments • GAINS project should be worked on as a part of Task 3 for streamlining of our work.- Country scenario, regional scenario and global scenario- Convergent world and heterogeneous world- Creation of scenarios with plot (economics oriented, environment oriented, resources restriction, non-proliferation oriented, etc.)- Pu transfer and enriched U supply are important factors in regional and global scenarios from viewpoints of non-proliferation and energy security.- Perspectives for future nuclear capacity in the countries where nuclear plants aren’t installed at the moment- Management of thorium cycle and MA recycle- Need for benchmark study for calculation code- Relationship and consistencies with the studies or activities of OECD/NEA and GNEP- Sharing the analysis work load with IAEA and member states as far as possible

  3. Proposal for work plan (1/3) 2008/January – 2008/JuneIAEA, ICG - Preliminary analysis for convergent global scenario for scenario selection and calculation code (MESSAGE, VISTA, DESAE) check Member States - Review and compile of future plan for nuclear power plant, fuel cycle plant and initial condition (enriched U stock, Pu stock, spent fuel storage and so on ) of each state - Review of characteristic data of INS components of each state for scenario study, if possible - Nuclear fuel cycle mass balance analysis based on each state scenario, if possible (IAEA code or own code )2008/JuneSecond technical meeting - Scenario selection - Set up assumptions for main analysis for convergent global scenario - Set up assumptions for preliminary analysis for heterogeneous scenario - Confirmation of data transfer format for aggregation of each state scenario

  4. Proposal for work plan (2/3) 2008/July – 2008/DecemberIAEA, ICG - Analysis for convergent global scenario - Preliminary analysis for heterogeneous scenario Member States- Nuclear fuel cycle mass balance analysis based on each state scenario in order to benchmark preliminary analysis for heterogeneous scenario made by IAEA (IAEA code or own code ) 2008/December Third technical meeting - Comparison between convergent global scenario and heterogeneous scenario - Discussion about conditions for transition from heterogeneous scenario to convergent scenario from viewpoints of Pu transfer (proliferation risk), enriched U supply (energy security) and so on. - Contents of final report

  5. Proposal for work plan (3/3) 2009/January – 2009/JuneIAEA, ICG - Analysis for heterogeneous scenario - Draft final reportMember States - Draft final report 2009/JuneFourth technical meeting - Comparison between convergent global scenario and heterogeneous scenario - Discussion about definition ways for enhancing market penetration - Final report2009/DecemberFifth technical meeting - Final report

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