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After the Cycle Turns: Overview and Outlook for P/C Insurance Markets

An overview of the P/C insurance markets, including economic outlook, industry growth projections, underwriting fundamentals, and investment environment.

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After the Cycle Turns: Overview and Outlook for P/C Insurance Markets

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  1. After the Cycle Turns:Overview and Outlook for P/C Insurance Markets Insurance Information Institute July 17, 2012 Download at www.iii.org/presentations Robert P. Hartwig, Ph.D., CPCU, President & Economist Insurance Information Institute  110 William Street  New York, NY 10038 Tel: 212.346.5520  Cell: 917.453.1885  bobh@iii.org  www.iii.org

  2. Economics 2012: The World Is Changing 2012 Is the First Year Since 2005 Where Economic Perceptions and Reality in the US Will Be Positive Potentially Significant Benefits for P/C Insurers 3

  3. Economic Outlook for 2012 • Economic Growth Will Continue 2012/13, Albeit Modestly and Unevenly • No Double Dip Recession • Economy remains more resilient than most pundits presume • Consumer Confidence Could Ebb, But Won’t Collapse • Consumer Spending/Investment Will Continue to Expand Modestly • Consumer and Business Lending Continue to Expand Modestly • Business Bankruptcies Fall, New Business Formations Grow • Housing Market Remains Weak, but Some Improvement Expected by 2013 • Inflation Remains Tame • Runaway inflation highly unlikely but energy spike possible; Fed has things under control • Private Sector Hiring Remains Consistently Positive But Anemic • Unemployment is about 8% by year’s end • Sovereign Debt, Euro Currency/Economy • European Recession in Milder than Commonly Presumed • Soft Landing in China • Threat from Oil Price Shock, Middle East Turmoil Has Subsided • Interest Rates Remain Low by Historical Standards; Fear & Fed Factors • Stock and Bond Market Stability Has Given Way to Fear Trading • Congress & President Agree on Tax Cut Extensions Before Year-End eSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C

  4. Insurance Industry Predictions for 2012 • P/C Insurance Exposures Grow Modestly • Personal and commercial exposure growth is certain in 2012; Strongest since 2004/5 • But restoration of destroyed exposure will take until mid-decade • P/C Industry Growth in 2012 Will Be Strongest Since 2004 • Growth likely to exceed A.M. Best projection of +3.8% for 2012 • No traditional “hard market” emerges in 2012 • Underwriting Fundamentals Deteriorate Modestly • Some pressure from claim frequency, in some severity in key lines • Increasing Private Sector Hiring Will Drive Payrolls/WC Exposures • Wage growth is also positive and could modestly accelerate • WC will prove to be tough to fix from an underwriting perspective • Increase in Demand for Commercial Insurance Will Accelerate in 2012 • Includes workers comp, property, marine, many liability coverages • Laggards: inland marine, aviation, commercial auto, surety • Personal Lines: Auto leads, homeowners lags (though HO leads in NPW growth due to rates) • Investment Environment Is Remains Relatively Stable • Return of realized capital gains as a profit driver • Interest rates remain low; Some upward pressure if economic strength surprises • Industry Capacity Hits New Records by Year-End 2012 (Barring Mega-CAT) eSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C

  5. The Strength of the Economy Will Influence P/C Insurer Growth Opportunities Growth Will Expand Workers Comp Payroll Exposure Base America’s Manufacturing Renaissance?Construction Activity Still Depressed? 6

  6. US Real GDP Growth* The Q4:2008 decline was the steepest since the Q1:1982 drop of 6.8% Real GDP Growth (%) Recession began in Dec. 2007. Economic toll of credit crunch, housing slump, labor market contraction has been severe but modest recovery is underway 2012 is expected to see a slow and choppy acceleration in growth continuing into 2013 Demand for Insurance Continues To Be Impacted by Sluggish Economic Conditions, but the Benefits of Even Slow Growth Will Compound and Gradually Benefit the Economy Broadly * Estimates/Forecasts from Blue Chip Economic Indicators. Source: US Department of Commerce, Blue Economic Indicators 7/12; Insurance Information Institute.

  7. Percent Change in Real GDP by State, 2011 Growth varied considerably across states but in total was weak in 2011 with US overall growth at just 1.7% TX has been an economic growth leader Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis at http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/regional/gdp_state/gsp_glance.htm ;Insurance Information Institute.

  8. Consumer Sentiment Survey (1966 = 100) January 2010 through June 2012 Optimism among consumers is fell in June, but remains well above year-ago levels; Suggests concern, but not fear on the part of consumers. Consumer confidence has been low for years amid high unemployment, falling home prices and other factors adversely impact consumers, but improved substantially in late 2011 and early 2012 Source: University of Michigan; Insurance Information Institute

  9. Auto/Light Truck Sales, 1999-2022F New auto/light truck sales fell to the lowest level since the late 1960s. Forecast for 2012-13 is still far below 1999-2007 average of 17 million units, but a recovery is underway. (Millions of Units) Job growth and improved credit market conditions will boost auto sales in 2012 and beyond Car/Light Truck Sales Will Continue to Recover from the 2009 Low Point, Bolstering the Auto Insurer Growth and the Manufacturing Sector. Source: U.S. Department of Commerce; Blue Chip Economic Indicators (10/11 and 7/12); Insurance Information Institute.

  10. Monthly Change* in Auto Insurance Prices, 1991–2012* Cyclical peaks in PP Auto tend to occur approximately every 10 years (early 1990s, early 2000s and likely the early 2010s) Pricing peak occurred in 2010 at 5.1%, falling to 2.8% by Mar. 2012 “Hard” markets tend to occur during recessionary periods The June 2012 reading of 3.2% is close to the 3.7% recorded in June 2011 *Percentage change from same month in prior year; through June 2012; seasonally adjusted Note: Recessions indicated by gray shaded columns. Sources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics; National Bureau of Economic Research (recession dates); Insurance Information Institutes. 11 12/01/09 - 9pm eSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C

  11. New Private Housing Starts, 1990-2022F New home starts plunged 72% from 2005-2009; A net annual decline of 1.49 million units, lowest since records began in 1959 (Millions of Units) Job growth, improved credit market conditions and demographics will eventually boost home construction The plunge and lack of recovery in homebuilding and in construction in general is holding back payroll exposure growth Little Exposure Growth Likely for Homeowners Insurers Until at least 2014. Also Affects Commercial Insurers with Construction Risk Exposure, Surety Source: U.S. Department of Commerce; Blue Chip Economic Indicators (10/11 and 7/12); Insurance Information Institute.

  12. Construction Employment,Jan. 2010—May 2012* Construction employment is still below where it was in Jan. 2010. In a normal recovery, construction employment would be growing robustly (Thousands) *Seasonally adjusted Sources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics at http://data.bls.gov; Insurance Information Institute. 13 12/01/09 - 9pm eSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C

  13. Value of Construction Put in Place, May 2012 vs. May 2011* Growth (%) Private: +13.1% Public: -3.9% Private sector construction activity is up in both the residential and nonresidential segments Public sector construction activity remains depressed Overall Construction Activity is Up, But Growth Is Entirely in the Private Sector as State/Local Government Budget Woes Continue *seasonally adjustedSource: U.S. Census Bureau, http://www.census.gov/construction/c30/c30index.html ; Insurance Information Institute.

  14. Value of Private Construction Put in Place, by Segment, May 2012 vs. May 2011* Led by the Power industry, Private sector construction activity is up by double digits in many segments after plunging during the “Great Recession” Growth (%) Private Construction Activity is Up in Most Segments, Including Residential Construction but Led by Power *seasonally adjustedSource: U.S. Census Bureau, http://www.census.gov/construction/c30/c30index.html ; Insurance Information Institute.

  15. ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (Values > 50 Indicate Expansion) January 2010 through June 2012 Optimism among non-manufacturers was stable in late 2011 and increased in early 2012 Non-manufacturing industries have been expanding and adding jobs. The question is whether this will continue. Source: Institute for Supply Management at http://www.ism.ws/ismreport/nonmfgrob.cfm; Insurance Information Institute.

  16. Business Bankruptcy Filings,1980-2012: Q1 % Change Surrounding Recessions 1980-82 58.6% 1980-87 88.7% 1990-91 10.3% 2000-01 13.0% 2006-09 208.9%* 2011 bankruptcies totaled 47,806, down 15.1% from 56,282 in 2010—the second consecutive year of decline. Business bankruptcies more than tripled during the financial crisis. Through Q1:2012, filings are down 11.1% vs. Q1:2011 Significant Exposure Implications for All Commercial Lines as Business Bankruptcies Begin to Decline Sources: American Bankruptcy Institute at http://www.abiworld.org/AM/AMTemplate.cfm?Section=Home&TEMPLATE=/CM/ContentDisplay.cfm&CONTENTID=61633; Insurance Information Institute 22 12/01/09 - 9pm eSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C

  17. Private Sector Business Starts, 1993:Q2 – 2011:Q3* Business Starts2006: 872,0002007: 843,0002008: 790,0002009: 697,000 2010: 722,0002011: 748,000** (Thousands) Business starts were up 3.5% to 561,000 in the first 9 months of 2011 vs. first 9 months of 2011. 722,000 new business starts were recorded in 2010, up 3.6% from 697,000 in 2009, which was the slowest year for new business starts since 1993 Business Starts Were Down Nearly 20% in the Recession, Holding Back Most Types of Commercial Insurance Exposure, But Are Recovering Slowly * Data through June 30, 2011 are the latest available as of July 10, 2012; Seasonally adjusted. **Annualized based on data through Q3:2011. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, http://www.bls.gov/news.release/cewbd.t08.htm. 23 12/01/09 - 9pm eSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C

  18. 12 Industries for the Next 10 Years: Insurance Solutions Needed Health Care Health Sciences Energy (Traditional) Many industries are poised for growth, though insurers’ ability to capitalize on these industries varies widely Alternative Energy Petrochemical Agriculture Natural Resources Technology (incl. Biotechnology) Light Manufacturing Insourced Manufacturing Export-Oriented Industries Shipping (Rail, Marine, Trucking)

  19. Presidential Politics & the P/C Insurance Industry How Is Profitability Affected by the President’s Political Party? 26

  20. P/C Insurance Industry ROE by Presidential Administration, 1950- 2012* OVERALL RECORD: 1950-2012* Democrats 7.67% Republicans 7.97% Party of President has marginal bearing on profitability of P/C insurance industry *Truman administration ROE of 6.97% based on 3 years only, 1950-52; ROEs for the years 2008 forward exclude mortgage and financial guaranty segments. Estimated ROE for 2012 = 7.0%. Source: Insurance Information Institute

  21. Labor Market Trends Massive Job Losses Sapped the Economy and Commercial/Personal Lines Exposure, But Trend is Improving 29

  22. Unemployment and Underemployment Rates: Stubbornly High in 2012, But Falling January 2000 through June 2012, Seasonally Adjusted (%) U-6 went from 8.0% in March 2007 to 17.5% in October 2009; Stood at 14.9% in June 2012 Recession ended in November 2001 Unemployment kept rising for 19 more months Recession began in December 2007 Unemployment stood at 8.2% in May 2012 Unemployment peaked at 10.1% in October 2009, highest monthly rate since 1983. Peak rate in the last 30 years: 10.8% in November - December 1982 Jun 12 Stubbornly high unemployment and underemployment constrain overall economic growth, but the job market is now clearly improving Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics; Insurance Information Institute. 30 12/01/09 - 9pm eSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C

  23. Monthly Change in Private Employment January 2008 through June 2012 (Thousands) 84,000 private sector jobs were created in June Monthly Losses in Dec. 08–Mar. 09 Were the Largest in the Post-WW II Period Private Employers Added 4.48 million Jobs Since Jan. 2010 After Having Shed 4.66 Million Jobs in 2009 and 3.81 Million in 2008 (State and Local Governments Have Shed Hundreds of Thousands of Jobs) Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics: http://www.bls.gov/ces/home.htm; Insurance Information Institute

  24. Cumulative Change in Private Employment: Dec. 2007—June 2012 December 2007 through June 2012 (Millions) Cumulative job losses peaked at 8.444 million in December 2009 Cumulative job losses as of June 2012 totaled 3.964 million All of the jobs “lost” since President Obama took office in Jan. 2009 have been recouped Private Employers Added 4.48 million Jobs Since Jan. 2010 After Having Shed 4.66 Million Jobs in 2009 and 3.81 Million in 2008 (State and Local Governments Have Shed Hundreds of Thousands of Jobs) Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics: http://www.bls.gov/ces/home.htm; Insurance Information Institute

  25. Cumulative Change in Government Employment: Jan. 2010—June 2012 January 2010 through June 2012* (Millions) Government at all levels has shed more than a half million jobs since Jan. 2010 even as private employers created 4.48 million jobs. Cumulative job losses through June 2012 totaled 536,000 Temporary Census hiring distorted 2010 figures Governments at All Levels are Under Severe Fiscal Strain As Tax Receipts Plunged and Pension Obligations Soared During the Financial Crisis, Causing Them to Reduce Staff Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics http://www.bls.gov/data/#employment; Insurance Information Institute

  26. Net Change in Government Employment: Jan. 2010—June 2012* State government employment fell by 1.4% since the end of 2009 while Federal employment is down by 2.1% (Thousands) Local government employment shrank by 405,000 from Jan. 2010 through June 2012, accounting for 76% of all government job losses, negatively impacting WC exposures for those cities and counties that insure privately *Cumulative change from prior month; Base employment date is Dec. 2009. Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics http://www.bls.gov/data/#employment; Insurance Information Institute eSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C

  27. Unemployment Rates by State, May 2012:Highest 25 States* In May, 18 states had over-the-month unemployment rate increases, 14 states and the District of Columbia had decreases, and 18 states had no change. *Provisional figures for May 2012, seasonally adjusted. Sources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics; Insurance Information Institute.

  28. Unemployment Rates By State, May 2012: Lowest 25 States* In May, 18 states had over-the-month unemployment rate increases, 14 states and the District of Columbia had decreases, and 18 states had no change. *Provisional figures for May 2012, seasonally adjusted. Sources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics; Insurance Information Institute.

  29. Nonfarm Payroll (Wages and Salaries):Quarterly, 2005–2012:Q1 Billions Latest (2011:Q4) was $6.88 trillion, a new peak Peak was 2008:Q1 at $6.60 trillion Pace of payroll growth is accelerating Recent trough (2009:Q3) was $6.25 trillion, down 5.3% from prior peak Growth rates in 2011/12Q2 over Q1: 0.6%Q3 over Q2: 0.4% Q4 over Q3: 1.3% Q1 over Q4: 1.0% Note: Recession indicated by gray shaded column. Data are seasonally adjusted annual rates. Sources: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/WASCUR; National Bureau of Economic Research (recession dates); Insurance Information Institute. 40 12/01/09 - 9pm eSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C

  30. Payroll vs. Workers Comp Net Written Premiums, 1990-2011 Payroll Base* WC NWP $Billions $Billions 12/07-6/09 7/90-3/91 3/01-11/01 WC premium volume dropped two years before the recession began +7.9% in 2011 WC net premiums written were down $14B or 29.3% to $33.8B in 2010 after peaking at $47.8B in 2005 Continued Payroll Growth and Rate Increases Suggest WC NWP Will Grow Again in 2012; +7.9% Growth in 2011 Was the First Gain Since 2005 *Private employment; Shaded areas indicate recessions. Payroll and WC premiums for 2011 is I.I.I. estimate Sources: NBER (recessions); Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis at http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/WASCUR ; NCCI; I.I.I.

  31. P/C Insurance Industry Financial Overview Profit Recovery Was Set Back in 2011 by High Catastrophe Loss & Other Factors 52

  32. P/C Net Income After Taxes1991–2012:Q1 ($ Millions) P-C Industry 2012:Q1 profits were up 29% from 2011:Q1, due primarily to lower catastrophe losses • 2005 ROE*= 9.6% • 2006 ROE = 12.7% • 2007 ROE = 10.9% • 2008 ROE = 0.1% • 2009 ROE = 5.0% • 2010 ROE = 6.6% • 2011 ROAS1 = 3.5% • 2012:Q1 ROAS1 = 7.2% * ROE figures are GAAP; 1Return on avg. surplus. Excluding Mortgage & Financial Guaranty insurers yields a 8.2% ROAS for 2012:Q1, 4.6% ROAS for 2011, 7.6% for 2010 and 7.4% for 2009. Sources: A.M. Best, ISO, Insurance Information Institute

  33. A 100 Combined Ratio Isn’t What ItOnce Was: Investment Impact on ROEs A combined ratio of about 100 generates an ROE of ~6.7% in 2012, ~7.5% ROE in 2009/10,10% in 2005 and 16% in 1979 Combined Ratio / ROE Year Ago 2011:Q1 = 102.2, 6.1% ROE Combined Ratios Must Be Lower in Today’s DepressedInvestment Environment to Generate Risk Appropriate ROEs * 2008 -2012 figures are return on average surplus and exclude mortgage and financial guaranty insurers. 2012:Q1 combined ratio including M&FG insurers is 99.0, ROAS = 7.2%; 2011 combined ratio including M&FG insurers is 108.2, ROAS = 3.5%. Source: Insurance Information Institute from A.M. Best and ISO data.

  34. Profitability Peaks & Troughs in the P/C Insurance Industry, 1975 – 2012:Q1* History suggests next ROE peak will be in 2016-2017 ROE 1977:19.0% 1987:17.3% 2006:12.7% 10 Years 1997:11.6% 2012:Q8.2% 10 Years 9 Years 2011:4.6%* 1975: 2.4% 2001: -1.2% 1992: 4.5% 1984: 1.8% *Profitability = P/C insurer ROEs. 2011 figure is an estimate based on ROAS data. Note: Data for 2008-2012 exclude mortgage and financial guaranty insurers. 2012:Q1 ROAS = 7.2% including M&FG. Source: Insurance Information Institute; NAIC, ISO, A.M. Best.

  35. Personal Lines Profitability Analysis Significant Variability Over Time and Across States 58

  36. Return on Net Worth: Pvt. Passenger Auto, 10-Year Average (2001-2010*) Top 25 States (Percent) Hawaii was the most profitable state for auto insurers from 2001-2010 *Latest available. Sources: NAIC.

  37. Return on Net Worth: Pvt. Passenger Auto, 10-Year Average (2001-2010*) (Percent) Bottom 25 States Michigan was the least profitable state, in large part due to fraud in its no-fault system *Latest avaiiable. Sources: NAIC

  38. Return on Net Worth: Homeowners Insurance, 10-Year Average (2001-2010*) Top 25 States (Percent) Hawaii was the most profitable state for home insurers from 2001-2010 *Latest available. Sources: NAIC.

  39. Return on Net Worth: Homeowners Insurance, 10-Year Average (2001-2010*) Bottom 25 States (Percent) Home insurance profitability in catastrophe prone states suffered the most over the past decade *Latest available. Sources: NAIC

  40. Top 16 Most Costly World Insurance Losses, 1970-2011** 5 of the top 14 most expensive catastrophes in world history have occurred within the past 2 years (Insured Losses, 2011 Dollars, $ Billions) Taken as a single event, the Spring 2011 tornado and thunderstorm season would likely become the 5thcostliest event in global insurance history *Average of range estimates of $35B - $40B as of 1/4/12; Privately insured losses only. **Figures do not include federally insured flood losses. Sources: Swiss Re sigma 1/2011; Munich Re; Insurance Information Institute research.

  41. U.S. Insured Catastrophe Loss Update 2012 Catastrophe Losses Were Close to “Average” in the First Half of 2012 2011 Was the 5th Most Expensive Year on Record 81

  42. US Catastrophe Loss Summary: First Half 2012 • $9.3 Billion in Insured Losses in the US Arising from 90 CAT Events • Down 62% from $24.4B in 2011:H1; Loss is close to long-term average • Represents 80%+ of global total • Mild winter helped keep first half losses down • Thunderstorm (includes tornado, hail and wind damage) accounted for $8.8B or 95% of first half insured losses and represent the third most expensive spring thunderstorm ever • $14.6 Billion in Economic Losses in the US • Down from approximately $75B in 2011:H1 • Mild Winter Helped Keep First Half Insured Losses Down • Lack of heavy precipitation limited spring flood but exacerbated drought conditions • Severe Droughts Now Impacting Central and Southwest Parts of US • Two major wildfires in Colorado in June caused record damage in the state from the peril • Largest wildfire in New Mexico history occurred in May • Insured crop losses could be high in 2012 • Active Early Hurricane Season • Tropical Storms Beryl and Debby caused minor wind damage and extensive flooding in FL Source: Munich Re; Insurance Information Institute.

  43. Natural Disaster Losses in the United States: First Half 2012 Source: MR NatCatSERVICE 83

  44. Top 14 Most Costly Disastersin U.S. History (Insured Losses, 2011 Dollars, $ Billions) Taken as a single event, the Spring 2011 tornado and storm season are is the 4thcostliest event in US insurance history Hurricane Irene became the 11th most expense hurricane in US history *Losses will actually be broken down into several “events” as determined by PCS. Includes losses for the period April 1 – June 30. Sources: PCS; Insurance Information Institute inflation adjustments.

  45. Natural Disasters in the United States, 1980 – 2012:H1Number of Events (Annual Totals 1980 – 2011 and First Half 2012) There were 90 natural disaster events in the first half of 2012 Number 22 6 61 1 Meteorological (storm) Climatological (temperature extremes, drought, wildfire) Geophysical (earthquake, tsunami, volcanic activity) Hydrological (flood, mass movement) Source: MR NatCatSERVICE 85

  46. US Insured Catastrophe Losses ($ Billions, 2011 Dollars) Record Tornado Losses Caused 2011 CAT Losses to Surge US CAT Losses in 2011 Were the 5th Highest in US History on An Inflation-Adjusted Basis H1 2012 CAT losses were down $15.1B or 62% from $24.4B in H1 2011 *Munich Re figure for H1 2012. Note: 2001 figure includes $20.3B for 9/11 losses reported through 12/31/01 ($25.9B 2011 dollars). Includes only business and personal property claims, business interruption and auto claims. Non-prop/BI losses = $12.2B ($15.6B in 2011 dollars.) Sources: Property Claims Service/ISO; Insurance Information Institute. 87 12/01/09 - 9pm eSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C

  47. 2011’s Most Expensive Catastrophes, Insured Losses The Midwest was hard hit by catastrophes in 2011, especially thunderstorms, including tornadoes, hail and high winds **Includes $700 million in flood losses insured through the National Flood Insurance Program. Source: PCS except as noted by “*” which are sourced to Munich Re; Insurance Information Institute.

  48. U.S. Thunderstorm Loss Trends, 1980 – 2012:H1 Hurricanes get all the headlines, but thunderstorms are consistent producers of large scale loss. 2008-2012 are the most expensive years on record. Average thunderstorm losses are up more than 5 fold since the early 1980s. 2012 will likely be among the top 5 years on record. Thunderstorm losses in 2012:H1 totaled a record $8.8 billion, the 3rd highest first half on record Source: Property Claims Service, MR NatCatSERVICE 89

  49. Combined Ratio Points Associated with Catastrophe Losses: 1960 – 2011* Avg. CAT Loss Component of theCombined Ratio by Decade 1960s: 1.04 1970s: 0.85 1980s: 1.31 1990s: 3.39 2000s: 3.52 2010s: 6.20* Combined Ratio Points The Catastrophe Loss Component of Private Insurer Losses Has Increased Sharply in Recent Decades *Insurance Information Institute estimates for 2010 and 2011 based on A.M. Best data. Notes: Private carrier losses only. Excludes loss adjustment expenses and reinsurance reinstatement premiums. Figures are adjusted for losses ultimately paid by foreign insurers and reinsurers. Source: ISO; Insurance Information Institute.

  50. Federal Disaster Declarations Patterns: 1953-2012 Records Were Set for Federal Disaster Declarations in 2010 and 2011—Most Declarations Were Unrelated to Tropical Activity 95

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