Interacting With the Department of Homeland Security (DHS)

1. Interacting With the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Rex J. Fleming UCAR January 27, 2004 Sedona

2. Contaminated Plumes from NBC Terrorism Source: Nuclear or radiation device Truckload of Anthrax Large Toxic Gas Release Time Response: Very Short—Save lives, ease human suffering Short-term—Move people out of harm’s way Long Term—Determine when ground zero back to economic productivity Data Requirements for Plume Models (lowest 20,000 feet): Accurate 4-dimensional input on winds (advection, dry deposition) Accurate 4-dimensional input on water vapor and temperatures (stability, wet deposition, moist physics/chemistry, etc.)

3. Potentially Dangerous Chain of Events (continued) • Current upper air data (radiosonde system) • 350 km average horizontal resolution • two/day (12-hour) temporal resolution • Large errors in system movement due to advection uncertainty • Very large error if systems developing or dissipating • No high resolution data input poor mesoscale (high resolution) model output poor plume model input poor plume model guidance potential large loss of life - needlessly

5. Commercial A/C measure winds and temp (lat, long, and time available) • Water vapor measurements proven in 1999-2000 (WVSS-I) • Very accurate water vapor measurements with WVSS-II. Uses diode laser, UCAR air sampler (patent pending), and differential frequency modulation spectroscopy • Air sampler is flush mounted, drag-free, stealthy, optimized for diode lasers and quantum cascade lasers, works on anything that moves • Commercial A/C vertical profile of winds, temp, and water vapor costs $1.10 each vs. radiosonde recurring cost of $250 each

6. Air Sampler: Flush mounted / low drag / no heater required • Diode laser, long-life, telecommunications quality • System weight (electronics box, cables, air sampler) < 7 lbs 3.1 “ 9.0 ” 5.0 ”

7. Accuracy and Robustness of the WVSS-II • BAMEX (Bow Echo and Mesoscale Convective Vortex Experiment) • Time in seconds on lower horizontal scale. • Measured static pressure (blue line – reference the right scale) indicates constant flight level between • 10,000 and 20,000 seconds; then a series of up and down maneuvers. • Water vapor measured as mixing ratio in parts per million by volume (ppmV) on left vertical scale. • Very close match between WVSS-II (black) and NOAA P-3 standard chilled mirror (red). • 20-year lifetime • Easy installation – maintenance check and spare replacement only at C-checks

9. Tactical Observing System:(staged throughout country serving dual benefits – one is NBC terrorism event) • Consists of a variety of systems: function of (nuclear, biological, or chemical) • Includes existing satellite systems and systems brought in by first responders • Measures 4-D area around ground zero and near-surround • Consists of highly mobile systems (aerial and ground-based) • Measures environment and contaminated plume (composition, strength, 4-D movement, trends)

10. Aerial Mobile Observational Platforms: • Special Manned Aircraft • Some existing government a/c • Some existing university and government research a/c • Some existing older commercial a/c suitable for purpose • Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV) • Range from GNAT (48 hr endurance and 140 lb payload) to GlobalHawk (42 hr endurance and 1960 lb payload) • Smaller, simpler, in-situ data and plume info only

11. Ground Mobile Systems • trucks/vans • all-terrain Hummers • fast moving choreographed array for environmental data • optimally positioned array for species identification, concentration and trends

12. DRAFT OF JUNE 16, 2003 Addition of Strategic and Tactical Observing Systems for Homeland Security Principal Investigators: Rex J. Fleming (UCAR) Farzin Amzajerdian (NASA) Robert Atlas (NASA) G. David Emmitt (SWA) Bruce Gentry (NASA) R. Michael Hardesty (NOAA) Grady Koch (NASA) Tom Warner (NCAR)

13. This BAA (due 6/13/03) is only first opportunity • May not be best avenue, but gives exposure • Our reading of DHS desires: • Available proven technology • Tailored to Homeland Security issues • Implemented quickly • Our team and institutional skill can get job done

14. Broad Agency Announcement DAAD05-03-T-0024 Mission Area: Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear Countermeasures (CB) Requirement Number: R000-CB-UCAR-2003-326 Proposal Title: Addition of Strategic and Tactical Observing Systems for Homeland Security UCAR 6/13/2003 Operational Capability to be Provided: Once a CBRN even has occurred the contaminated plume will continue to evolve due to a number of dynamical, chemical, and physical processes. A mobile tactical observing system is required to measure both the environment and the plume near ground zero and the near-surround. Several tactical observing system configurations are pre-staged at locations around the country. This information is crucial for all subsequent actions and decisions – including those involved in saving lives. Task 1 implements new observations at key coastal cities and mobile tactical observing systems for both the plume and the environment (ground-based, special manned aircraft, and UAVs). Task 2 provides detailed regional model results for the region of the CBRN event. Cartoon showing a possible ground-based mobile platform configuration [the concentric circles shown are only symbolic as the actual paths for the ground mobile systems would be polygons of available paths (streets and/or fields) that could be traversed]. • Proposed Technical Approach: • Task 1: • Add automatic ground based Doppler wind profilers at major coastal cities for possible coastal nuclear detonations. • Add proven hand-held devices for measuring plume composition to air mobile (special manned aircraft and UAVs) and ground mobile platforms (trucks/vans and all-terrain Hummers). Also add environmental sensors for wind, temperature, and water vapor to above mobile platforms. • Task 2: • Improve 4-dimensional data assimilation procedures for the small regional movable grid required to monitor/predict conditions following a terrorist event. • Implement relocatable finer scale version of national NCAR MM5 model to be major information source for ground zero operations • ROM Cost & Schedule: • (This is a large interagency effort lead by UCAR) • Task 1 period of performance is 3 years from date of receipt of funds (this allows time to select and equip the 30 regional hubs around the country). • Task 2 is a 3-year on-going analysis and model improvement program. • Total cost is $138 million evenly divided over 3 years. • Deliverables • Observing system hardware; data and model results sent to DHS and/or ground zero operations center in real-time. • Corporate Information • Dr. Rex J. Fleming • University Corporation for Atmospheric Research • 3300 Mitchell Lane, Boulder CO 80301 • Phone (303)497-8165 Fax (303)497-8158 • Email fleming@joss.ucar.edu

15. Homeland Security Advanced Research Projects Agency (HSARPA) • HSARPA interest is in research for a very quick payoff • Examples of what they are looking for in last BAA: • Personnel Protection (for VIPs) • – Personal Duress Alarm System • – Small radar system with 3 mile detection range for UAVs • Infrastructure Protection • – Develop a National Critical Infrastructure Database • (develop criteria for comparing vulnerability of targets)

16. Past and Future Contact Identified with DHS