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Q2 Advisor Call April 2019. Housekeeping…. Money Manager Forum (Summer 2019) Meet Joel Drake – Systems Analyst Altitude Conference - September 3-5, Park City (Stein Eriksen Lodge) Fiji Incentive Trip – qualification is 195,000 / 300,000 TSC points Summer Admin Training.
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Q2 Advisor Call April 2019
Housekeeping… Money Manager Forum (Summer 2019) Meet Joel Drake – Systems Analyst Altitude Conference - September 3-5, Park City (Stein Eriksen Lodge) Fiji Incentive Trip –qualification is 195,000 / 300,000 TSC points Summer Admin Training INTERNAL USE ONLY- NOT INTENDED FOR PUBLIC USE
Economy & Equity Markets Bottom line: Good, not great. April 2019
“The Recession of 2019” • Weekly jobless claims dipped below 200,000 for the first time since 1969. (On average when we set a new low in claims, the next recession has been 18 months away.) • March ISM manufacturing >55 (over 50 is net growth) • NYSE A/D line at an all-time high (with SP500 making new all-time highs, not one FAANG stock is = ‘fresh breadth’) • New home sales highest in a year • Leading Economic Index (LEI’s) at an all-time high • China’s economy firming These materials are provided for general information and educational purposes based upon publicly available information from sources believed to be reliable—we cannot assure the accuracy or completeness of these materials. Advisory services offered through TownSquare Capital, LLC, an SEC Registered Investment Advisor
Earnings and stock prices are tracking… While Q1 2019 earnings estimates were sharply reduced, stock prices are still tracking with earnings over the last few years. (In 2018, earnings were up 25%, the market was down 5%.) • Source: JP Morgan, Morningstar These materials are provided for general information and educational purposes based upon publicly available information from sources believed to be reliable—we cannot assure the accuracy or completeness of these materials. Advisory services offered through TownSquare Capital, LLC, an SEC Registered Investment Advisor
Profit margins pinched but still elevated… • Source: JP Morgan These materials are provided for general information and educational purposes based upon publicly available information from sources believed to be reliable—we cannot assure the accuracy or completeness of these materials. Advisory services offered through TownSquare Capital, LLC, an SEC Registered Investment Advisor
Corporate balance sheets look good… Delinquencies are falling on commercial and industrial loans, and are near their lowest levels of the past 30 years. • Source: Bespoke These materials are provided for general information and educational purposes based upon publicly available information from sources believed to be reliable—we cannot assure the accuracy or completeness of these materials. Advisory services offered through TownSquare Capital, LLC, an SEC Registered Investment Advisor
Valuations right at long run average… These materials are provided for general information and educational purposes based upon publicly available information from sources believed to be reliable—we cannot assure the accuracy or completeness of these materials. Advisory services offered through TownSquare Capital, LLC, an SEC Registered Investment Advisor
Earnings drive stock prices… • Since 1960: • Average annual earnings growth is 6.42% (S&P 500) • The avg. annual return of the S&P 500 is6.44% (not including dividends) • Source: Columbia Threadneedle. 1/1/1960 to 12/31/17 using S&P 500 returns not including dividends reinvested. These materials are provided for general information and educational purposes based upon publicly available information from sources believed to be reliable—we cannot assure the accuracy or completeness of these materials. Advisory services offered through TownSquare Capital, LLC, an SEC Registered Investment Advisor
The labor market is in excellent condition… These materials are provided for general information and educational purposes based upon publicly available information from sources believed to be reliable—we cannot assure the accuracy or completeness of these materials. Advisory services offered through TownSquare Capital, LLC, an SEC Registered Investment Advisor
More job listings than unemployed… These materials are provided for general information and educational purposes based upon publicly available information from sources believed to be reliable—we cannot assure the accuracy or completeness of these materials. Advisory services offered through TownSquare Capital, LLC, an SEC Registered Investment Advisor
9 years of job additions… • Source: Baird These materials are provided for general information and educational purposes based upon publicly available information from sources believed to be reliable—we cannot assure the accuracy or completeness of these materials. Advisory services offered through TownSquare Capital, LLC, an SEC Registered Investment Advisor
Household balance sheets still look good… • Source: JP Morgan These materials are provided for general information and educational purposes based upon publicly available information from sources believed to be reliable—we cannot assure the accuracy or completeness of these materials. Advisory services offered through TownSquare Capital, LLC, an SEC Registered Investment Advisor
GDP continues to look good… These materials are provided for general information and educational purposes based upon publicly available information from sources believed to be reliable—we cannot assure the accuracy or completeness of these materials. Advisory services offered through TownSquare Capital, LLC, an SEC Registered Investment Advisor
Retail sales on trend… These materials are provided for general information and educational purposes based upon publicly available information from sources believed to be reliable—we cannot assure the accuracy or completeness of these materials. Advisory services offered through TownSquare Capital, LLC, an SEC Registered Investment Advisor
Chinese economy may be rebounding… These materials are provided for general information and educational purposes based upon publicly available information from sources believed to be reliable—we cannot assure the accuracy or completeness of these materials. Advisory services offered through TownSquare Capital, LLC, an SEC Registered Investment Advisor
International equities cheaper than the U.S.… These materials are provided for general information and educational purposes based upon publicly available information from sources believed to be reliable—we cannot assure the accuracy or completeness of these materials. Advisory services offered through TownSquare Capital, LLC, an SEC Registered Investment Advisor
International equities cheaper than the U.S.… • Source: JP Morgan • Source: Baird • Source: XXXXXXXX These materials are provided for general information and educational purposes based upon publicly available information from sources believed to be reliable—we cannot assure the accuracy or completeness of these materials. Advisory services offered through TownSquare Capital, LLC, an SEC Registered Investment Advisor
European stocks: cheapest in 50 years These materials are provided for general information and educational purposes based upon publicly available information from sources believed to be reliable—we cannot assure the accuracy or completeness of these materials. Advisory services offered through TownSquare Capital, LLC, an SEC Registered Investment Advisor
Funds flowing out of stocks is not euphoric… These materials are provided for general information and educational purposes based upon publicly available information from sources believed to be reliable—we cannot assure the accuracy or completeness of these materials. Advisory services offered through TownSquare Capital, LLC, an SEC Registered Investment Advisor
Growth stocks on a very long win-streak… • Source: Baird These materials are provided for general information and educational purposes based upon publicly available information from sources believed to be reliable—we cannot assure the accuracy or completeness of these materials. Advisory services offered through TownSquare Capital, LLC, an SEC Registered Investment Advisor
Muni’s most expensive in history… These materials are provided for general information and educational purposes based upon publicly available information from sources believed to be reliable—we cannot assure the accuracy or completeness of these materials. Advisory services offered through TownSquare Capital, LLC, an SEC Registered Investment Advisor
Our Playbook • More volatility ahead. Make changes accordingly. • No meaningful amount of cash needed in the next 5 to 7 years should ever be in the equity market. • No more Rate hikes in 2019(most likely) • Trade tensions are still a wild card – but improving. • Global growth – especially China – may be re-accelerating. • If (reduced) earnings estimates are correct for 2019, S&P 500 valuations are 16.4x earnings – in line with the 30 yr avg. • Emerging markets are cheap compared to U.S. assets. (Twice the growth rate, 47% cheaper) • U.S. Small and Mid Caps are cheap compared to Large Cap stocks. (More growth, lower valuations) • Own individual bonds rather than bond funds if possible. These materials are provided for general information and educational purposes based upon publicly available information from sources believed to be reliable—we cannot assure the accuracy or completeness of these materials. Advisory services offered through TownSquare Capital, LLC, an SEC Registered Investment Advisor
S&P 500 is up 74% of all years… • Source: Ibbotson These materials are provided for general information and educational purposes based upon publicly available information from sources believed to be reliable—we cannot assure the accuracy or completeness of these materials. Advisory services offered through TownSquare Capital, LLC, an SEC Registered Investment Advisor
Perspective Since 1916, the Dow has made new all-time highs less than 5% of all days, but over that time it’s up 25,568%.(95% of the time you’re underwater. The less you look the better off you’ll be.) Gold and the Dow were both 800 in 1980. Today Gold is $1,300 oz, the Dow is over 26,000. (Cash flows trump commodities.) These materials are provided for general information and educational purposes based upon publicly available information from sources believed to be reliable—we cannot assure the accuracy or completeness of these materials. Advisory services offered through TownSquare Capital, LLC, an SEC Registered Investment Advisor
Rates and The Fed April 2019
RATES AND THE YIELD CURVE The Yield Curve twisted and became somewhat inverted over the last year Source: Bloomberg, L.P. These materials are provided for general information and educational purposes based upon publicly available information from sources believed to be reliable—we cannot assure the accuracy or completeness of these materials. Advisory services offered through TownSquare Capital, LLC, an SEC Registered Investment Advisor
RATES AND THE YIELD CURVE Credit spreads on bonds dropped dramatically in Q1’2019 after widening in Q4’2018 Source: Bloomberg, L.P. These materials are provided for general information and educational purposes based upon publicly available information from sources believed to be reliable—we cannot assure the accuracy or completeness of these materials. Advisory services offered through TownSquare Capital, LLC, an SEC Registered Investment Advisor
RATES AND THE YIELD CURVE THE FEDERAL RESERVE The Fed Did an About Face in Q4’2018 and signaled no planned hikes for 2019: • Fed received a storm of criticism for the last Dec. 2018 hike • Signaled they would be on hold as they saw the balance of growth and inflation to be stable These materials are provided for general information and educational purposes based upon publicly available information from sources believed to be reliable—we cannot assure the accuracy or completeness of these materials. Advisory services offered through TownSquare Capital, LLC, an SEC Registered Investment Advisor
Performance Q1 2019
Cornerstone Series Performance * Performance figures as of 3.31.19; returns stated above do not include advisory fees INTERNAL USE ONLY- NOT INTENDED FOR PUBLIC USE
Foundation Series Performance * Performance figures as of 3.31.19; returns stated above do not include advisory fees INTERNAL USE ONLY- NOT INTENDED FOR PUBLIC USE
Architect Series (BRIX) Performance * Performance figures as of 3.31.19; returns stated above do not include advisory fees INTERNAL USE ONLY- NOT INTENDED FOR PUBLIC USE
Equity SMA Performance – Q1 2019 Note: Not all data is audited – still waiting on fund managers for final numbers INTERNAL USE ONLY- NOT INTENDED FOR PUBLIC USE
Custom Bond Ladder Performance – Q1 2019 Q1’2019 Bond Product Composite Performance (not annualized) INTERNAL USE ONLY- NOT INTENDED FOR PUBLIC USE
Platform Updates April 2019
Foundation Updates • Updating foundation models to more closely reflect the TownSquare core investment philosophy: • Concentrated holdings • Low turnover • High active share • Maximize upside capture while minimizing downside risk • Same overall asset allocation as Cornerstone but with active management. • Will be using funds for Polen Focus Growth, Columbia Large Cap Value, Kayne Anderson Small Cap Growth. • Most funds will not be NTF at TD Ameritrade. • Minimums for new Foundation Series will be $50K. INTERNAL USE ONLY- NOT INTENDED FOR PUBLIC USE
Foundation Models Transition Transition from current to new Foundation series portfolios will be on May 20. Options for transition: Transition to new models immediately. Transition to corresponding Cornerstone model. Transition to new models but wait for notification on timing. Transition to advisor directed INTERNAL USE ONLY- NOT INTENDED FOR PUBLIC USE
Designer Series Models • Designer Series: • $400K Minimum • Core/Satellite Models - Use Separately Managed Accounts where possible and mutual funds to complete the portfolio • Designer Select Series: • $1M Minimum • Uses Separately Managed Accounts and 1-3 Mutual Funds. • Tax Efficient Series: • Same equity allocation as regular models • Fixed Income portion of the portfolio invested in municipal bonds INTERNAL USE ONLY- NOT INTENDED FOR PUBLIC USE
Designer Series Fees • Management fees will be the same as if the portfolio was built custom based on your fee schedule. • Example – Advisor with less than $50M accessing TownSquare via sub-advisory agreement: • 70 bps for Equity SMA • 35 bps for TSC Bond Portfolios • 35 bps for TSC Mutual fund/ETF models • In this case, management fees would range from 0.39% to 0.67% based on the model. INTERNAL USE ONLY- NOT INTENDED FOR PUBLIC USE
Designer Series Models INTERNAL USE ONLY- NOT INTENDED FOR PUBLIC USE
Designer Series Models INTERNAL USE ONLY- NOT INTENDED FOR PUBLIC USE
NEW STRATEGIES / UPDATED CODES New Strategies Updated Codes Same Minimum INTERNAL USE ONLY- NOT INTENDED FOR PUBLIC USE
STRATEGY HIGHLIGHT – CASH MGMT Fully Customizable Treasuries Corporate Bonds Attractive Yield INTERNAL USE ONLY- NOT INTENDED FOR PUBLIC USE
REVISED BOND LADDER ADDENDUM Withdrawal Needs Account Minimum Permission to Reinvest Space for Customization INTERNAL USE ONLY- NOT INTENDED FOR PUBLIC USE