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CalWater 2 – Implementation | Meteorological Forecasting

CalWater 2 – Implementation | Meteorological Forecasting. Jason Cordeira Plymouth State University. Informed by the CalWater-2014 Early start NOAA G-IV AR experiment (Jan-Feb 2014). Key considerations:. CalWater 2 – Implementation | Meteorological Forecasting. Challenges

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CalWater 2 – Implementation | Meteorological Forecasting

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  1. CalWater 2 – Implementation | Meteorological Forecasting Jason Cordeira Plymouth State University Informed by the CalWater-2014 Early start NOAA G-IV AR experiment (Jan-Feb 2014) Key considerations:

  2. CalWater 2 – Implementation | Meteorological Forecasting Challenges • Multi-year periodic field operations • Scale of operations • Breadth of interest in aerosols, precipitation, ARs Implementation • Propose CalWater 2 Meteorology Forecast Site to host stand-alone graphics for field-ops and model forecasts (CW3E?) • Weather Briefings prepared by lead forecasters and support forecasters prior to/during intensive field operations • Now-casting (as necessary) during individual IOPs

  3. CalWater 2 – Implementation | Meteorological Forecasting CalWater 2 Meteorology Forecast Site • Precipitation forecasts (from many sources) • WRF, NAM, GFS, NAEFS, SREF • WPC (formerly HPC) • Atmospheric River products, diagnostics, forecasts • IWV and IVT, satellite, analyses, and forecasts • AR detection tool • Ensemble-based products (AR probability, plumes) • Aerosol information and forecasts • Trajectories (links or products) • Satellite data • Numerical information/output from WRF? • Implementation: I see CW3E taking the lead with input from collaborators

  4. CalWater 2 – Implementation | Meteorological Forecasting Pre-CalWater 2 “Atmospheric River Experiment” • 1 lead forecaster that provided consistent daily Weather Briefings to Mission Scientist/PIs • Lead forecaster assisted by a graduate student in preparation of weather briefing • Prepared on the East Coast and emailed to PIs, Mission Scientist, other meteorologists prior to 1300 UTC (0600 California LST) • All weather briefings were guidelines for flight/mission planning • Individual mission planning solicited advice from a group of meteorologists that consulted other sources in addition to weather briefing (e.g., Reynolds, Ralph, Neiman, Spackman, others)

  5. CalWater 2 – Implementation | Meteorological Forecasting from Pre-CalWater 2 “Atmospheric River Experiment” • Weather Briefing Content • Executive Summary • Short-term forecast • Analysis (1200 UTC) • Day-1 (today) • Medium-range forecast • Days 2–3 (tomorrow and next) • Long-range forecast • Days 4–7 (round out the week) • Week-2 forecast • Days 8–15 Deterministic (e.g., GFS/NAM/HPC) Ensemble (GFSE, NAEFS)

  6. CalWater 2 – Implementation | Meteorological Forecasting from Pre-CalWater 2 “Atmospheric River Experiment” • Weather Briefing Content • Short-term forecast – Day-1 forecast examples

  7. CalWater 2 – Implementation | Meteorological Forecasting from Pre-CalWater 2 “Atmospheric River Experiment” • Weather Briefing Content • Short-term forecast – Day-1 forecast examples (continued) Examples include previous day’s planned flight track atop latest model guidance of fields such as precipitation rate, integrated water vapor, integrated water vapor transport (really anything that can be plotted or computed from the model suites can be included).

  8. CalWater 2 – Implementation | Meteorological Forecasting from Pre-CalWater 2 “Atmospheric River Experiment” • Weather Briefing Content • Medium-range forecast – Days 2–3 forecast • Long-range forecast – Days 4–7 forecast • Focus on progression of features identified at longer ranges into shorter ranges, timing, intensity, viability (flight range)

  9. CalWater 2 – Implementation | Meteorological Forecasting from Pre-CalWater 2 “Atmospheric River Experiment” • Weather Briefing Content • Week-2 – Days 8–15 forecast – probabilistic/viability

  10. CalWater 2 – Implementation | Meteorological Forecasting from Pre-CalWater 2 “Atmospheric River Experiment” • Weather Briefing Content • Week-2 – Days 8–15 forecast – probabilistic/viability

  11. CalWater 2 – Implementation | Meteorological Forecasting | Coordination CalWater 2 Coordination • Collaborative effort to develop common-access forecast website during summer 2014 (Ralph/Cordeira/NOAA/others?) • Designate one lead forecaster for 2-week periods during field operations in order to maintain consistent daily Weather Briefings using tools available on common forecast site • Designate one support forecaster for one-week periods overlapping beneath lead forecasters • Involve graduate students as support forecasters (helps meet Broader Impact requirements) • Cordeira had a student volunteer to assist during the Pre-CalWater Exp.. • Cordeira/others can get students credit for their participation • Payment where funding exists?

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