1 / 16

Understanding Inertia

Understanding Inertia. Inherent Limitations on Evaluating “Upstream” Prevention Interventions. Intervention Strategies. “Upstream” Interventions School and community based prevention Disrupting Supply “Downstream” Interventions Treatment Incarceration of Users

bracha
Download Presentation

Understanding Inertia

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Understanding Inertia Inherent Limitations on Evaluating “Upstream” Prevention Interventions

  2. Intervention Strategies • “Upstream” Interventions • School and community based prevention • Disrupting Supply • “Downstream” Interventions • Treatment • Incarceration of Users • Enforcement/Treatment Partnerships

  3. Understanding Inertia • Empirical illustration using household survey data • Structural explanation with a model of illicit drug use • Mathematical representation of system inertia

  4. Empirical Illustration Source SAMDHA 2006

  5. One Year Interruption of Initiation

  6. One Year Interruption of Initiation

  7. Permanent 33% Drop

  8. Permanent 33% Drop

  9. Two-Stage Model

  10. Two-Stage Model

  11. Two-Stage Model

  12. Mathematical Representation f(t) probability that an individual manifests outcome of interest in year t I(t) Initiation in year y X(t) aggregate level of outcome at time t

  13. One year interruption of initiation with f(t)=1 for T = 0.5, T = 1, T = 2, T = 10, years. Convolution Integral

  14. Conclusions For upstream interventions evaluated with downstream indicators…

  15. Conclusions For upstream interventions evaluated with downstream indicators… …No news is really no news.

  16. Thanks!

More Related