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TELUS 2010 Targets investor conference call. Robert McFarlane EVP & Chief Financial Officer Darren Entwistle President & CEO December 15, 2009. TELUS forward looking statements.
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TELUS 2010 Targets investor conference call Robert McFarlane EVP & Chief Financial Officer Darren Entwistle President & CEO December 15, 2009
TELUS forward looking statements This session and answers to questions contains forward-looking statements that require assumptions about expected future events and financial and operating results that require assumptions and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties. There is significant risk that assumptions, predictions and other forward-looking statements will not prove to be accurate. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements and assumptions as a number of factors could cause actual future results, conditions, actions or events to differ materially from the targets, expectations, estimates or intentions expressed. Except as required by law, TELUS disclaims any intention or obligation to update or revise forward-looking statements, and reserves the right to change, at any time at its sole discretion, its current practice of updating annual guidance. See Key Assumptions and Forward Looking Statements in TELUS’ 2010 Targets news release dated December 15, 2009. Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially include, but are not limited to: Competition (including more active price competition; the expectation that new wireless competitors will be offering services in early 2010 as a result of the 2008 advanced wireless services (AWS) spectrum auction; industry growth rates including wireless penetration gain; actual network access line losses, TELUS TV and wireless subscriber additions experience; variability in average wireless revenue per unit as well as variability in subscriber acquisition and retention costs that are dependent on subscriber loading and retention volumes, smartphone sales and subsidy levels, and TELUS TV installation costs); economic growth and fluctuations (including strength and persistence of the economic recovery in Canada, and pension performance, funding and expenses); capital expenditure levels in 2010 and beyond (due to the Company’s wireline broadband initiatives, fourth generation (4G) wireless deployment strategy, and any new Industry Canada wireless spectrum auctions); financing and debt requirements (including ability to carry out refinancing activities) ; tax matters (including acceleration or deferral of required payments of significant amounts of cash taxes); human resource developments (including current collective bargaining in the TELUS Québec region and collective bargaining agreements expiring in late 2010); business integrations and internal reorganizations (including ability to successfully implement cost reduction initiatives and realize expected savings); technology (including reliance on systems and information technology, broadband and wireless technology options and roll-out plans, choice of suppliers and suppliers’ ability to maintain and service their product lines, expected technology and evolution path and transition to 4G technology, expected future benefits and performance of high-speed packet access (HSPA) / long-term evolution (LTE) wireless technology, successful implementation of the wireless network build and sharing arrangement with Bell Canada to achieve cost efficiencies and reduce deployment risks, successful deployment and operation of new wireless networks and successful introduction of new products (such as new HSPA devices), new services and supporting systems); regulatory approvals and developments (including interpretation and application of tower sharing and roaming rules, the design and impact of future spectrum auctions, and possible changes to foreign ownership restrictions); process risks (including conversion of legacy systems and billing system integrations, and implementation of large complex enterprise deals that may be adversely impacted by available resources and degree of co-operation from other service providers); health, safety and environmental developments; litigation and legal matters; business continuity events (including manmade and natural threats); any future acquisitions or divestitures; and other risk factors discussed herein and listed from time to time in TELUS’ reports and public disclosure documents including its annual report, annual information form, and other filings with securities commissions in Canada (on SEDAR at sedar.com) and in its filings in the United States, including Form 40-F (on EDGAR at sec.gov). For further information, see Section 10: Risks and risk management in TELUS’ annual 2008 Management’s discussion and analysis, as well as updates reported in Section 10 of TELUS’ 2009 quarterly Management’s discussions and analyses.
Agenda • 2009 guidance update • 2010 assumptions & targets • Summary • Questions and answers
2009 consolidated guidance - updated • Restructuring costs updated to approx. $190M vs approx. $160M Revenue and EBITDA trending to lower end of guidance Restructuring costs raised by $30M 4
2010 wireless/wireline target assumptions • Wireless industry penetration growth of approximately 4% pts • Competitive wireless entry from new entrants in early 2010 • Increased TELUS wireless subscriber loading in smartphones following HSPA network launch and access to new devices • Reduced downward pressure on TELUS ARPU with continued voice ARPU erosion offset in part by increased data and roaming revenue growth • Expect continued stabilization in residential NAL losses and continued pressure in SMB market from cable-TV/VoIP players • Continued wireline broadband footprint expansion for TELUS with ADSL 2+ coverage approaching 90% of urban areas by YE 2010 and start of VDSL 2 deployment 6
2010 consolidated target assumptions • Expect significant increase in COA/COR resulting from increased loading and subsidy levels for smartphones, and to lesser extent, increased TTV loading • Ongoing focus on efficiency initiatives with approx. $75M in restructuring & workforce reduction costs • 2010 EBITDA savings of approx. $135M generated by efficiency initiatives • Statutory tax rate of 28.5 to 29.5% • Cash tax payments to peak in 2010 at $385 to $425M due to timing of installments (approx $270M in 2009) 7
Defined Benefit pension assumptions Preliminary pension expense up $30M Cash contribution expected to be down $50M 8
2010 wireless revenue target ($M) 4,950 to 5,100 4,675 to 4,725 2009E 2010E Increase of 5 to 9% driven by increased subscriber loading and data revenue growth and full year of Black’s 9
2010 wireless EBITDA target ($M) 1,925 to 2,025 1,900 to 1,950 2009E 2010E Growth of between zero to 5% despite margins being impacted by increased smartphone subsidies 10
2010 wireline revenue target ($M) approx 4,900 4,850 to 5,000 2009E 2010E Revenue change of up to 2% due to data revenue offsetting continued local and LD trends 11
2010 wireline EBITDA target ($M) 1,575 to 1,675 approx 1,550 2009E 2010E Growth of 2 to 8% due to efficiency initiatives and reduced restructuring costs offsetting dilution from TELUS TV growth 12
Wireline segment – EBITDA normalized EBITDA favourably impacted by lower restructuring 13
Investing in operational efficiency Total restructuring costs ($M) Expected Actual 773 approx 190 Q4 77 approx 75 59 113 20 2002 – 2006 2007 2008 2009E 2010E Acceleration of operating efficiency initiatives increases 2009 restructuring costs by $30M 14
2010 consolidated revenue target ($B) 9.8 to 10.1 approx 9.6 9.7 9.1 2007 2009E 2010E 2008 Growth of 2 to 5% driven by wireless 15
2010 consolidated EBITDA target ($M) 3,500 to 3,700 approx 3,475 ~40M • ~115M ~(30)M 2009E 2010E Reduced Restr cost Increased DB pension expense Operational EBITDA Reported EBITDA growth of 1 to 6% 16
Consolidated segment – EBITDA normalized Normalized EBITDA growth of up to 4% 17
2010 EPS ($) Positive tax related adjustments 3.10 to 3.30 2.90 to 3.30 2.64 to 2.84 2010E 2009E EPS excluding tax related adjustments up 6 to 20% 18
2010 consolidated capex target ($M) approx 2,100 approx 1,700 1,859 1,770 1,618 2006 2007 20081 2009E 2010E 1 Excludes $882M in AWS spectrum Capex returning to historical levels 19
Consolidated capex intensity levels 22% 20% 19% 17% 2007 20081 2009E2 2010E2 1 Excludes $882M payment for AWS spectrum 2 Midpoint of guidance Decline in capital intensity driven by substantial completion of wireless 3G+ network in 2009 20
Free cash flow ($M) AWS spectrum 1,388 1,243 765 to 965 approx550 361 2007 20081 2009E 2010E 2010 cash flow growth of 39 to 75% 21
TELUS’ funding position • Strong position with sustainable cash flows and ample liquidity • Committed $2B credit facility does not expire until May 2012 • TELUS’ Dec. 2009 5.05% Cdn$1B note issuance used to call 30% of total US$3B June 2011 notes and related FX swaps (effective cost 8.493%) • Consistent with TELUS’ prudent Treasury management • Costs related to early redemption expected to result in after tax impact in Q4 of approx. $0.21 per share • Plan to refinance remaining 2011 maturity over next 18 mths TELUS’ strong balance sheet a result of sound long-term financial policies 22
TELUS long-term debt maturity schedule C$ billions Deferred FX Hedge Liability 3.5 Long Term Debt CP + Credit Facility Drawdowns 3.0 A/R Securitization 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 2020+ 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Extending and levelling out of maturity profile 23
Summary - 2010 targets • Consolidated revenue growth of up to 5% driven by wireless • Increased smartphone loading • Consolidated EBITDA growth due to wireless revenue growth and reduced wireline costs due to efficiency initiatives offsetting significant subsidy increase and expected subscriber growth • Decline in capital intensity driven by substantial completion of wireless 3G+ network in 2009 • Free Cash flow growth of more than 40% Opportunity in 2010 to leverage investments in our core business, wireless growth and operating efficiency 24
Questions? investor relations 1-800-667-4871 telus.com ir@telus.com
Appendix – definitions • Percentage increases calculated from 2010 ranges to mid-point of 2009 ranges • EBITDA: earnings, after restructuring and workforce reduction costs, before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization • Capital intensity: capex divided by total revenue • Cash flow: EBITDA less capex • Free cash flow: EBITDA, adding Restructuring and workforce reduction costs, net employee defined benefit plans expense, cash interest received and excess of share compensation expense over share compensation payments, subtracting cash interest paid, cash taxes, capital expenditures, cash restructuring payments, employer contributions to employee defined benefit plans, and cash related to Other expenses such as charitable donations and securitization fees • Cost of retention (COR): total costs to retain existing subscribers, often presented as a percentage of network revenue TELUS definitions for non-GAAP measures
Appendix – 2010E Free cash flow ($M) 2010E 2009E EBITDA ~$3,475 $3,500 to 3,700 ~(2,100) ~(1,700) Capex ~(415) Net Cash Interest ~(450) ~(270) (385) to (425) Net cash tax payment ~35 ~(80) Other1: ~725 865 to 1,065 Free Cash Flow Cash pension contribution (in excess of expense) ~(175) ~(100) Free Cash Flow (incl. cash pension contribution) ~550 765 to 965 1 Includes restructuring expense (net of cash payments), share based compensation (net of cash payments) and cash payments related to charitable donations and securitization fees 27