Seismic Risk Management: Macedonian Experience

prof. Elena Dumova-Jovanoska “Ss.Cyril and Methodius” University, Skopje prof. Elena Dumova-Jovanoska SEISMIC RISK MANAGEMENT MECEDONIAN EXPERIENCE

INTRODUCTION Natural disaster mitigation efforts are increasingly evaluated in the context ofintegrated risk management. It is often useful to approach seismic engineering issuesfrom a risk management standpoint. Many strategies arepossible, Decision makers must consider different, and often conflicting, interests inchoosing a strategy. How should a strategy be selected? 17th INTERNATIONAL SYMPOSIUM OF MASE prof. Elena Dumova-Jovanoska 2

EARTHQUAKE & DAMAGE 17th INTERNATIONAL SYMPOSIUM OF MASE prof. Elena Dumova-Jovanoska 3

EARTHQUAKE & DAMAGE Skopje, 1963 17th INTERNATIONAL SYMPOSIUM OF MASE prof. Elena Dumova-Jovanoska 10

EARTHQUAKE & DAMAGE Skopje, 1963 17th INTERNATIONAL SYMPOSIUM OF MASE prof. Elena Dumova-Jovanoska 11

SEISMIC RISK MANAGEMENT Seismic risk management is the development of policies, procedures, and strategies to limit the extent of disaster caused by earthquakes. 17th INTERNATIONAL SYMPOSIUM OF MASE prof. Elena Dumova-Jovanoska 12

SEISMIC RISK MANAGEMENT reducing expected loss by implementing preventive or mitigation measures; and insurance and loss sharing in case of an accident (or a damaging earthquake). The risk management is a process of weighting alternatives (options) and selecting the most appropriate action to reach an acceptable decision. Generally, risk assessment/analysis process involves objectivity, whereas risk management involves preferences and attitudes which have both objective and subjective elements. Two options that can be combined in an overall risk management strategy are: 17th INTERNATIONAL SYMPOSIUM OF MASE prof. Elena Dumova-Jovanoska 13

SEISMIC RISK MANAGEMENT enhancing seismic provisions for new construction and retrofitting existing structures and infrastructure (hard measures for seismic risk mitigation) Reducing expected loss by implementing preventive or mitigation measures includes: Alternative retrofit strategies for seismic upgrading. 17th INTERNATIONAL SYMPOSIUM OF MASE prof. Elena Dumova-Jovanoska 14

SEISMIC RISK MANAGEMENT Insurance serves as a valuable vehicle to mitigate financial risk (soft measure for seismic risk mitigation). This is particularly important for facilitating post-disaster recovery, because a negative impact is often too grave and drastic; it would take a long time to return to the original state of wealth/asset. 17th INTERNATIONAL SYMPOSIUM OF MASE prof. Elena Dumova-Jovanoska 15

SEISMIC RISK MANAGEMENT Monetary loss and fatalities associated with earthquakes from 1980 to 2011, [5]. Earthquakes in the United States and Japan have caused considerable monetary loss, but the reported fatalities are minimal. This corroborates the life safety performance limit of the current seismic design code, and the motivation for performance-based earthquake engineering that accounts for other losses. The loss of lives from the South American and Asian earthquake is considerably high. 17th INTERNATIONAL SYMPOSIUM OF MASE prof. Elena Dumova-Jovanoska 16

SEISMIC RISK MANAGEMENT In order to prepare a comparison of strategies, the impact of each strategy on the risk profile of the system must be evaluated. 17th INTERNATIONAL SYMPOSIUM OF MASE prof. Elena Dumova-Jovanoska 17

SEISMIC RISK ASSESMENT for assessing seismic hazard (including probabilistic assessment and site effects), the building response and its vulnerability in order to predict the ultimate damage and fatalities, and the economic and social consequences in the area in question. In seismic-prone regions, a full seismic risk analysis is generally represented as the economic and social losses of a potential seismic event. Its estimation requires contributions from several scientific disciplines: 17th INTERNATIONAL SYMPOSIUM OF MASE prof. Elena Dumova-Jovanoska 18

SEISMIC HAZARD & SEISMIC RISK SEISMIC HAZARD – Gives the probability that a certain parameter of ground motion (MMI, PGA, Spectra) or, in a more general case, of the seismic process, will be surpassed within a lifetime period. SEISMIC RISK – The convolution of hazard with vulnerability for a group of structures, a region, etc. This means the product of probability of occurrence of a certain level of ground motion by the vulnerability of a group of structures, multiplied by their number, and extended to all possible levels of ground motion. 17th INTERNATIONAL SYMPOSIUM OF MASE prof. Elena Dumova-Jovanoska 19

SEISMIC HAZARD European-Mediterranean Seismic Hazard Map 17th INTERNATIONAL SYMPOSIUM OF MASE prof. Elena Dumova-Jovanoska

VULNERABILITY & FRAGILITY VULNERABILITY– Degree (level) of performance of a system (engineering structure, network, social group, etc.) under a certain level of seismic action. A more vulnerable system is the one that, for a given action, cannot perform so well as another one. FRAGILITY of a structure can be defined as its damageability while the structure’s vulnerability is a consequence of this damageability. Building response: 17th INTERNATIONAL SYMPOSIUM OF MASE prof. Elena Dumova-Jovanoska 21

VULNERABILITY & FRAGILITY CURVES • VULNERABILITY FUNCTIONSrelate the probability of losses as a result of damage to a ground motion measure. Some types of losses that can be used in developing seismic vulnerability functions for structures include repair cost, repair time, casualties, environmental impacts. • FRAGILITY CURVESdescribe the probability of reaching or exceeding specific damage levels as a function of seismic intensity measure, 17th INTERNATIONAL SYMPOSIUM OF MASE prof. Elena Dumova-Jovanoska 22

VULNERABILITY & FRAGILITY CURVES Vulnerability and fragility curves, that take on the form of analytical functions, are commonly used in seismic risk assessment and loss estimation applications. Vulnerability Curve Fragility Curves 17th INTERNATIONAL SYMPOSIUM OF MASE prof. Elena Dumova-Jovanoska 23

MACEDONIAN EXPERIENCE security, natural, technical/technological health. Government Management committee Assessment group Crisis Management Center CUK Headquarter Institutions Risk Management Low on national level is adopted in 2005. It defines several kind of risks: Crisis Management System in Macedonia 17th INTERNATIONAL SYMPOSIUM OF MASE prof. Elena Dumova-Jovanoska 24

MACEDONIAN EXPERIENCE Kumanovo Skopje Tetovo Stip Veles Strumica Ohrid Bitola Territorial distribution of CUK regional centers 17th INTERNATIONAL SYMPOSIUM OF MASE prof. Elena Dumova-Jovanoska 25

MACEDONIAN EXPERIENCE Since key step in the process of Crises Management is risks assessment, in 2011 the Government has adopted “Decree for assessment of threat to the security of the Republic of Macedonia from all risks and dangers, its content and structure, the manner of keeping and updating, as well as the determination of the entities in the crisis management system to which a complete or statement of assessment is provided”. Document in a very general and concise form defines the steps of hazard and risk assessment independently of the type of the hazard. Some key terms in crisis management; hazard, risk, vulnerability, risk assessment etc. are introduced. 17th INTERNATIONAL SYMPOSIUM OF MASE prof. Elena Dumova-Jovanoska 26

MACEDONIAN EXPERIENCE Another document that completes the review of the situation in the area of crisis management in Republic of Macedonia are the "Standard Operating Procedures for Communication Coordination and Cooperation among the Crisis Management System entities in the declared crisis", which the Government adopted in 2012 . In this document, among other types of hazards and risks, the procedures and responsibilities of certain institutions in case of an earthquake, are defined. 17th INTERNATIONAL SYMPOSIUM OF MASE prof. Elena Dumova-Jovanoska 27

CONCLUDING REMARKS Our scientific and technical knowledge has improved considerably in the last decades. This is clearly shown by many technological achievements, by the number of scientists devoted to these subjects with an excellent research production provided through a large and diverse number of research programs and national and international initiatives, and by a huge amount of publications (books, specialized journals, frequent international conferences, meetings, workshops, etc.). 17th INTERNATIONAL SYMPOSIUM OF MASE prof. Elena Dumova-Jovanoska 28

CONCLUDING REMARKS The scientific achievements have led to an increase in efforts towards the assessment of hazard and vulnerability but, only very recently, has political awareness gained some visibility, in particular in the wealthier earthquake prone countries. It is clear that much is still needed to understand seismic phenomena and the technical needs of varied types of constructions and facilities. On the other hand, a great effort has to be made to provide public information which will contribute to an increase in decision-makers’ awareness, so that they can support public and private actions leading to the mitigation of risk. 17th INTERNATIONAL SYMPOSIUM OF MASE prof. Elena Dumova-Jovanoska 29

CONCLUDING REMARKS transparency of the activities and public presentation of gained results is definitely a week point, use of these results in creating of public opinion towards definition of policy for seismic risk mitigation is even less visible, participation of insurance is insignificant and promotion of support for individual owners for retrofit measures of their buildings do not exists at all. Where is Macedonia? It seems that the global framework of the risk management system is settled according contemporary achievements in these young field, but…. 17th INTERNATIONAL SYMPOSIUM OF MASE prof. Elena Dumova-Jovanoska 30

CONCLUDING REMARKS transparency of the activitiesand public presentation of gained results is definitely a week point, use of these results in creating of public opinion towards definition of policy for seismic risk mitigation is even less visible, participation of insurance is insignificant and promotion of support for individual owners for retrofit measures of their buildings do not exists at all. Where is Macedonia? It seems that the global framework of the risk management system is settled according contemporary achievements in these young field, but…. 17th INTERNATIONAL SYMPOSIUM OF MASE prof. Elena Dumova-Jovanoska 31

CONCLUDING REMARKS It is clear that much is still needed to understand seismic phenomena and the technical needs of varied types of constructions and facilities. But, on the other hand, a great effort has to be made to provide public information which will contribute to an increase in decision-makers’ awareness, so that they can support public and private actions leading to the mitigation of risk. We should ask ourselves if engineering community is doing the right things, and what policies it is pursuing to achieve a substantial reduction of seismic risk. 17th INTERNATIONAL SYMPOSIUM OF MASE prof. Elena Dumova-Jovanoska 32

CONCLUDING REMARKS Italy 17th INTERNATIONAL SYMPOSIUM OF MASE prof. Elena Dumova-Jovanoska 33

CONCLUDING REMARKS ? Macedonia 17th INTERNATIONAL SYMPOSIUM OF MASE prof. Elena Dumova-Jovanoska 34

Thank you! dumova@gf.ukim.edu.mk 17th INTERNATIONAL SYMPOSIUM OF MASE prof. Elena Dumova-Jovanoska 35

Seismic Risk Management: Macedonian Experience