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Financial Performance of Movie Sequels - An Examination Study

Study confirming the accuracy of Edwards-Buckmire Model in predicting sequel behavior compared to non-sequels. Analyzing trends for better sequel prediction. Method for approximating sequel behavior. Relationship between film awareness levels and initial values.

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Financial Performance of Movie Sequels - An Examination Study

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  1. Jacob Ortega-Gingrich Advisor: Ron Buckmire Film Franchises and the Edwards-Buckmire Model:An Examination of the Financial Performance of Movie Sequels

  2. Objectives • Two Parts of Project • Confirm that Edwards-Buckmire Model in its current unmodified state is is capable of modeling the post-release behavior of sequels with the same degree of accuracy as with original non-sequels. • Examine how observed trends between the performance of sequels and their parent films can allow for better a priori prediction of the behavior of hypothetical future sequels

  3. Edwards-Buckmire Model

  4. Typical Solution Curves

  5. Comparing the accuracy of EBM in modeling sequels and non-sequels Part I: EBM and Sequels

  6. Non-sequel Film

  7. Non-Sequels

  8. Sequel

  9. Sequels

  10. How observed trends between the performance of parent and sequel films can allow for improved a priori prediction of the behavior of sequel films Part II: Predicting the behavior of Sequels

  11. Edwards-Buckmire Model

  12. Awareness and A0 W: awareness level of the film A0:initial value of A b: film-specific parameter

  13. 2005 non-sequels

  14. b values in parent-sequel pairs

  15. b in sequel-parent pairs

  16. b and time lag

  17. b and reception of parent

  18. b and reception of sequel

  19. b and cast continuity

  20. Project Summary • Confirmation that EBM models sequels with a similar degree of accuracy as non-sequels • confirms that post-release behavior of sequels is identical to that of original non-sequels • Method of a priori approximation of a sequel's behavior • relationship between A(0) and W • A(0) can be estimated for a sequel using the value of b from the parent film.

  21. References • Edwards, David A., and Ron Buckmire. "A differential equation model of North American cinematic box-office dynamics." IMA Journal of Management Mathematics. 12. (2001): 41-74. Print. • Hennig-Thurau, Thorsten, Mark B. Houston, and Torsten Heitjans. "Conceptualizing and Measuring the Monetary Value of Brand Extensions: The Case of Motion Pictures." Journal of Marketing. 73. (2009): 167-183. Print. • Data Taken From: • Box-office Mojo (www.boxofficemojo.com): all weekly and final financial figures • Rotten Tomatoes (www.rottentomatoes.com): H% figures • Numerical solutions to the EBM generated using Wolfram Mathematica 7

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