Larry D. Hinzman University of Alaska Fairbanks Amanda Lynch University of Colorado

1. Detection and attribution of changes in the hydrologic regimes of the Mackenzie, the Kuparuk and the Lena River Basins  Larry D. Hinzman University of Alaska Fairbanks Amanda Lynch University of Colorado Kenji Yoshikawa University of Alaska Fairbanks William Gutowski Iowa State University Philip Marsh National Hydrologic Research Center John Cassano University of Colorado Douglas L. Kane University of Alaska Fairbanks Matt A. Nolan University of Alaska Fairbanks  Yuji Kodama Hokkaido University Richard Janowicz Indian and Northern Affairs

2. The objectives of this research are to detect and document changes in the storage of freshwater in the Arctic regions of the Western Canadian, Alaskan, and Eastern Siberian Arctic, to ascribe those changes to their land cover or climate source, and assess the impacts of past and future variations in storage components on freshwater inputs into the Arctic Ocean. We intend to characterize the changing hydrologic regime spatially to facilitate accurate projections of future hydrologic conditions and to develop a numerical modeling capability that 1) accurately captures contemporary climatic and hydrologic dynamics, 2) projects reasonably accurate responses to future scenarios and 3) incorporates well documented algorithms that will be distributed to other modeling groups wishing to include dynamic land surface processes in arctic regions.

3. Objectives: - document changes in the storage of terrestrial freshwater in the Arctic regions of the Western Canada, Alaska, and Eastern Siberia - attribute the cause of those changes - accurately project future hydrologic conditions by validating and applying several spatially-distributed numerical models of atmosphere and surface hydrology - assess the impacts of past and possible future variations

4. Atmospheric Modelingwith the pan-Arctic MM5 • Pan-Arctic MM5 (PAM) • We will use an atmospheric model with Arctic specific physics • Includes NOAH land surface model • Used in NCEP climate and weather prediction models • Predicts soil moisture, soil and skin temperature, snowpack depth, snow water equivalent, and heat and moisture fluxes • Includes explicit treatment of frozen ground • Polar specific model physics for clouds, turbulence, and sea ice • Atmospheric physics from the Polar MM5 • Horizontal resolution of 10-50 km • Pan-Arctic and SHEBA domains - 50 km • Mackenzie, Kuparuk, and Lena watersheds - 30 and 10 km

5. Smaller watershed domains Indicated with red boxes in these plots 10 km horizontal resolution Provide atmospheric forcing data for detailed hydrologic modeling with TopoFlow Large watershed domains Mackenzie, Kuparuk, and Lena watersheds 30 km horizontal resolution Lena Model Domain Mackenzie and Kuparuk Domains Atmospheric Modeling

6. SHEBA Domain Pan-Arctic Domain Atmospheric Modeling • Initial Simulations • Sept 1997 - Sept 1998(SHEBA year) • Increased data for model validation • Coordinated with ARCMIP • International model intercomparison project • Purpose of simulations • Model validation with a focus on: • Snow cover • Surface fluxes • Atmospheric circulation

7. Trail Valley Creek, NWT

12. Trail Valley Creek 63 Km2 Caribou-Poker Creeks 104 Km2 Wolf Creek 195 Km2 Tania Creek 8 Km2

13. Kuparuk River Watershed 8000 Km2

14. Konngakut River McCall Glacier Hulahula River