Dr. D.P. Dubey Scientist E Meteorological Centre, Bhopal (India) email- dir_dubey@rediffmail

1. Dr. D.P. Dubey Scientist E Meteorological Centre, Bhopal (India) email- dir_dubey@rediffmail.com Weather, Climate & Water Services

2. Weather, climate and water information contributes to the safety and welfare of the public & has the potential to provide immense social and economic benefits to society. • It educate about important issues such as : • variability in weather • climate change • vulnerability to natural hazards • water resources

3. It is not sufficient to employ good science • and provide accurate forecasts. • There is also a need to educate public, and more specialized users, about availability of services.

4. IndiaWater Resources Management

5. Monsoon rainfall

8. Main crop • Kharif - June to Sept. • Rabi - Oct to April.

9. L

10. Operational communication to end-users (farmers) State Met Centres Agromet Advisory Bulletin by AMFUs State Agril. Dept. SMS on mobile Personal Contact Postal Contact Farmer KVK Television News Papers Radio

11. Weather forecast • Short range • Medium range • Long range

12. ASSESSMENTS

13. Climate Change

15. ASSESSMENTS Source : IPCC

16. GLOBAL ASSESSMENTS – IPCC PROJECTIONS • AVE. SURFACE TEMP. INCREASE 1.5 TO 5.8ºC • RATE OF WARMLARGE • MEAN SEA LEVEL RISE 0.09 TO 0.88 MTRS • WATER VAP. CONCENTR. / PRECIP.TO INCREASE • LOW LATITUDE REGIONS MEAN PRECIP.TOINCREASE • ASIAN SUMMER MONSOON PRECIP.INCREASE • EL-NINO EVENTS VARY IN NEXT 100 YEARS IN SMALL BUT INCREASE

17. REGIONAL EFFECTS: Asia Freshwater Availability: Decreased river flows after glaciers recede; will decrease. Floods: Glacier melt in Himalayas; sea level rise in deltas Crop yield: Increase up to 20% in E and SE; decrease up to 30% in S and central Asia by 2050; hunger risk high

18. Observed impacts in South Asia Intense Rains and Floods • Serious and recurrent floods in Bangladesh, • Nepal and N-E India in 2002, 2003 and 2004 • Rainfall in Mumbai (India), 2005: 1 million • people lost their homes • 50% of droughts associated with El Niño • Droughts in Orissa (India) in 2000-2002: crop • failures, mass starvation affecting 11 million • people Droughts Cyclones / Typhoons • Increasing intensity of cyclones formation in Bay • of Bengal and Arabian Sea since 1970 • Cyclone Nargis in Myanmar, 2008: 100, 000 deaths

19. EVIDENCES / EVENTS DROUGHT HITS KARNATAKA 2008 HEAT WAVE IN NORTHERN INDIA 2007 COLD WAVE IN NORTH 2006 NILAM CYCLONE (2012)

21. INDIA Vulnerability to Climate Change

22. WHAT WILL HAPPEN IN THE CASE SEA LEVEL RISE ??

23. Coastal Zones • Sea level rise displace populations in coastal zones, increase flooding in low-lying coastal areas, loss of crop yields from inundation and salinization. 7500 km coast line Vulnerable areas along the Indian Coast due to SLR

24. Variability in Weather & Climate • Heat / Cold Wave • More variable R/F • Increased Extremes Weather Events • Erratic Onset, advance and retrieval of Monsoon • Shift in Active/break cycles • Intensity and frequency of Monsoon Systems

25. Agriculture • Decrease in yield of crops as temperature increases in different parts of India – • 2°C increase in mean air temperature, rice yields could decrease by about 0.75 ton/hectare in the high yield areas and by about 0.06 ton/hectare in the low yield coastal regions. • Major impacts of climate change will be on rain fed crops (other than rice and wheat), which account for nearly 60% of cropland area. In India poorest farmers practice rain fed agriculture. • The loss in farm-level net revenue will range between 9 and 25% for a temperature rise of 2-3.5°C.

26. Factors influencing agriculture and food security • Increasing population • Growing urbanization • Decreasing crop land • Continuing crop loss • Declining crop production • Declining bio-diversity

27. Potential Impact of Climate Change on Wheat Production in India

28. Adaptations to Climate change • Improve land management practices-soil &nutrients • Increase water management • Reduce inefficiency in water use • Preserve and enhance plant and animal • Adjust food consumption patterns • Promote eco-friendly energy use • Shift to different cropping patterns

29. Climate Friendly Initiative • Wide-ranging reforms such as: • energy efficiency • increasing penetration of cleaner fuels • thrust for renewable energy technologies • cleaning of rivers, • enhanced forestation, • installed significant capacity of hydro and renewable energy • technologies and • introduced clean coal technologies • cleaner and lesser carbon intensive fuel

30. Water

31. Key Vulnerable River Basins • Acute physical water scarce conditions • Constant water scarcities and shortage • Seasonal / regular water stressed conditions • Rare water shortages

32. TheIndiansituation • Surface and ground water availability - 1,869 BCM of this, 40 % is not available. Groundwater Consumption: • 92% - Agricultural • 5% - Industrial • 3% - Domestic. Surface water Consumption: • 89% - Agricultural • 2% - Industrial • 9% - Domestic.

33. TheIndiansituation • Groundwater is the major source of water in the country with 85% of the population dependent. • Groundwater water table decline - 33 centimeters per year.

34. TheIndiansituation • Population [ ] • Demand [ ] • Consumption [] • Groundwater [Depleted] • Surface water [Polluted] • Rainfall [Wasted] SCARCITY • Industrial Growth [ ] • Economy-Industry [ ] • Water Business[] • Agriculture [ ] • Health & Environment[ ] • Future [ ? ]

35. TheIndiansituation

36. Challenges …. Public • Wasting Water • Polluting Water

37. Challenges …. Safety of industrial establishments from surplus surface water and floods Lack of proper draining facilities Uncontrolled exploitation of ground water by some industrial establishments

38. Challenges … • 2020 India will become a water stressed nation. • 66 million Indians in 20 states areat risk due to • excess fluoride • 10 million due to excess arsenic in groundwater

39. Solution … • Rain Water Harvesting • Irrigation Water Management • Hydrological projects - Construction of Dams • Artificial Recharge to Ground Water.

40. Solution … National River Linking Project

41. Solution … The much-awaited seawater desalination plant, the largest in the country with a capacity of 100 MLD (million litres per day), coming up near Minjur about 35 km north of Chennai . Under the technology, developed by the National Institute of Ocean Technology (NIOT), warm water is pumped into a vacuum flash chamber and the resultant vapour is condensed using cold water to get crystal clear potable water. Desalinated water is of a better quality and the cost is only 6 paise per litre.

42. Solution … • Water awareness groups among social media • networking sites like Twitter, • Facebook are creating new trend among the social • awareness groups. • Its not a solution to be found, it should be a RESOLUTION everyone should take.

43. Thank you