Velkommen til Executive Master of Management-programmet PROSJEKTLEDELSE

1. Velkommen til Executive Master of Management-programmetPROSJEKTLEDELSE

2. Jonas Söderlund • Professor, BI Norwegian School of Management • Professor, KITE, Linköping University • Education: Harvard Business School, MIT, and LiU • Visiting professor/scholar: Cranfield School of Management, Ecole Polytechnique, MIT • Core faculty/director: Advanced Project Management, PMEX Executive MBA, MM PM • Research on: Project-based organizations, project management, Human Resource Management, technical consultants. • Research in collaboration with: Astra Zeneca, Saab, Volvo Cars, Volvo Aero, Tetra Pak, ABB, Skanska, Scania, and Ericsson.

3. “Projects are plagued with failures…” “90 percent of all projects fail…” “70 % of all projects exceed time and budget.” ”We need to rethink our current way of managing projects” ”Projects deliver disappointing value.” “There is something wrong with our theory of project management…”

4. PROJECT Cost overrun (%) Boston’s artery/tunnel project 196 Humber bridge, UK 175 Boston-Washington-New York rail, USA 130 Great Belt rail tunnel, Denmark 110 A6 Motorway Chapel-en-le-Frith/Whaley bypass, UK 100 Shinkansen Joetsu rail line, Japan 100 Washington metro, USA 85 Channel tunnel, UK, France 80 Karlsruhe-Bretten light rail, Germany 80 Öresund access links, Denmark 70 Mexico City metro line 60 Paris-Auber-Nanterre rail line 60 Tyne and Wear metro, UK 55 Great Belt link, Denmark 54 Öresund coast-to-coast link, Denmark/Sweden 26

5. Nature and success of projects

7. Biased Decision Making “We believe it is true!” Optimism bias and Delusions of success Lovallo & Kahneman (2003) Strategic Misrepresentation “We know what we are doing, we do it anyway” Inaccurate forecasts and Reference class forecasting Flyvbjerg (2006)

8. Uncertainty – poorly understood or poorly managed?

9. And the No.1 rule of project management is…..

10. Embrace uncertainty. Expect the unexpected. There is far more that we don't know and can't know than what we can anticipate. Be resilient to what life throws at you. Anticipate that your team will learn something along the way that can and should change what you have promised and how you can deliver on your promises.

11. Type of uncertainty Project manager’s role Managing tasks Managing relationships Variation Cost, time and performance levels vary randomly, but in a predictable range. Troubleshooter and expeditor. Managers must plan with buffers and use disciplined execution. Planning: simulate scenarios, insert buffers at strategic points in critical path, set control limits at which to take corrective action. Execution: monitor deviation from intermediate targets. Planning: identify and communicate expected performance criteria. Execution: monitor performance against criteria, establish some flexibility with key stakeholders. Foreseen uncertainty A few known factors will influence, but in unpredictable ways. Consolidator of project achievements. Managers must identify risks, prevent threats and develop contingency plans. Planning: anticipate alternative paths to project goal by using decision-tree technique, use risk lists, contingency planning and decision analysis. Execution: identify occurrences of foreseen risks and trigger contingencies. Planning: increase awareness for changes in environment relative to known criteria or dimensions. Execution: inform and motivate stakeholders to cope with switches in project execution. Unforeseen uncertainty One or more major influence factors cannot be predicted. Flexible orchestrator and networker and ambassador. Must solve new problems and modify both targets and methods. Planning: build in the ability to add a set of new tasks to the decision tree, plan iteratively. Execution: scan the horizon for early signs of unanticipated influences. Planning: mobilize new partners in the network to help solve new challenges. Execution: maintain flexible relationships, communicate with stakeholders, develop beneficial dependencies. Chaos Unforeseen events completely invalidate the project’s target, planning and approach. Entrepreneur and knowledge manager. Managers must repeatedly and completely redefine the project. Planning: iterate continually and gradually select final approach, use parallel development. Execution: verify goals on the basis of learning; plan only to next verification, prototype rapidly, make go/no-go decisions ruthlessly. Planning: build long-term relationships with aligned interests, seek partnerships. Execution: link closely with users. leaders in the field, solicit direct and constant feedback from markets. technology providers.

12. Project Success and Value Creation

13. Project Success Impact on customer Business and direct success Preparation for future Impact on team Efficiency • Meeting schedule • Meeting budget • Meeting requirements and specifications • Other efficiencies • Customer satisfaction and loyalty • Benefit to customer • Extent of use • Brand name recognition • Team satisfaction • Skill development • Team member growth • Team member retention • No burnout • ROI, ROE • Sales • Profits • Market share • Cash flow • Service quality • New technology • New market • New product line • New core competency • New organizational capability

14. Success dimensions Project Success Preparation for future Business and direct success Impact on team Impact on customer Efficiency Time frame Short Medium Long

15. Velkommen til Executive Master of Management-programmetPROSJEKTLEDELSE

16. Prosjektifisering og prosjektets fundament Planlegging og håndtering av usikkerhet Organisering, relasjoner og interessenthåndtering Oppfølging, læring og gevinstrealisering Lederskap og teamarbeid i prosjektet Den prosjektorienterte virksomheten MM-programmet: 6 samlinger

17. P R O S J E K T O P P G A V E & E K S A M E N Tema 1 Tema 2 Tema 3 Tema 4 Prosjektoppgaven Del 1 Del 2 Del 3 Del 4 Innsendinger Nr 1 Nr 2 Nr 3 Selvstudium Bolk 1 Bolk 2 Bolk 3 Bolk 4 Nettaktivitet Periode 1 Periode 2 Periode 3 Periode 4 Samling i Nydalen 1 2 3 4

18. 4 Intensivsamlinger Samling 1 Prosjektets fundament Samling 2 Planlegging av prosjekter Samling 3 Organisering, oppfølging og styring Samling 4 Lederskap og ledelse i prosjekter og prosjektvirksomheter

19. Prosjektoppgaven ordinært program Beskrive et virkelig prosjekt, som er i virksomhet i hele eller deler av studieperioden Analysere en eller flere problemstillinger i tilknytning til prosjektet

20. Prosjektoppgaven avsluttende program Et lite forskningsprosjekt med ambisjon å bidra til den samlede kunnskapen på området Sentralt å gjøre seg kjent med forskningslitteraturen på området Fritt valg av tema, men temaet ska ha tydelig koppling og relevans for prosjektledelsesfaget Empirisk eller rent teoretisk, kvalitativ eller empirisk Innledningsvis veiledning i gruppe. Siden mer fokusert individuell veiledning

21. Prosjektledelsegruppen på BI • Anne Live Vaagaasar • Jonas Söderlund • Erling S. Andersen • Jan Terje Karlsen • Ralf Müller • Kim van Oorschot • Donatella de Paoli • Jon Lereim • Morten Juel Hansen • Therese Dille • Anne Berit Swanberg • Andrew Davies • Hans Solli Saether • Katrine Sveen Fjellestad, adm.