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Content CIS share in the world trade Current state of export via the Baltic Sea ports

CIS steel at the key export markets . Freight flows perspectives in the Baltic Sea region Andrey Kuzmin Analyst - Consultant «Metal Expert Consulting» Baltic Sea Freight Market and Ports 2008 15-17 September 2008, St.Petersburg. Content CIS share in the world trade

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Content CIS share in the world trade Current state of export via the Baltic Sea ports

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  1. CIS steel at the key export markets. Freight flows perspectives in the Baltic Sea regionAndrey KuzminAnalyst - Consultant«Metal Expert Consulting»Baltic Sea Freight Market and Ports 200815-17 September 2008, St.Petersburg

  2. Content • CIS share in the world trade • Current state of export via the Baltic Sea ports • Freight flows perspectives in the Baltic Sea region

  3. CIS: steel production dynamics, Mt 2007steelproduction121 Mt

  4. 2007world production:1,34 bln tChina share:36%CIS share:9% CIS share in world steel production, Mt

  5. Changes in steel and raw materials world trade structure in 2007

  6. CIS role in steel and raw materials world trade, Mt

  7. Pig iron export:2007 - 5,4 MtJan-Jul2008– 3 Mt Geography of raw materials export from Russia to non-CIS in January - July 2008, % Steel scrap export:2007 - 7,2 MtJan-Jul2008– 3 Mt

  8. Square billet export:2007 - 5 MtJan-Jul2008 – 4 Mt Geography of semis export from Russia to non-CIS in January - July 2008, % Slab export:2007 - 8,2 MtJan-Jul 2008– 5,4 Mt

  9. Long products export:2007– 2,25 MtJan-Jul 2008– 1,4 Mt Geography of Russian finished steel export to non-CIS in January – July 2008, % Flat products export:2007 – 7,8 MtJan-Jul 2008– 4,3 Mt

  10. 2007steel products transshipment:8,6 Mtsteel scrap transshipment: 4,3 Mt Dynamics of steel scrap and steel products transshipment in the Baltic Sea ports, ‘000 tons

  11. Structure of steel products shipping via the Baltic Sea ports 2007 Jan-Jul 2008

  12. Russia: crude steel production forecast, Mt

  13. Russia: pig iron production forecast, Mt

  14. Russia: HBI production forecast, Mt

  15. Russia: steel scrap collection and consumption forecast, Mt

  16. Actual prices for pig iron, scrap and steel products exported from Russia, $/tFOBthe Baltic Sea Sep-08 – prices as of September 1, 2008

  17. China and the Far East:reduction of steel output during the third quarter could create short supply in the domestic markets of the region. However, as China managed to increase its presence on the global market even with limited production it is obvious that there will be no deficit in Chinese local market. ЕС countries:subdued economic growth in the region and declining construction activity will negatively affect steel demand. USA:due to growing production costs, prices of local producers will be increasing, still lagging behind import prices. The Middle East:this is the only region where we are expecting revival of steel products demand in the IVquarter. However, high level of competition, overstocking of regional warehouses and expansion of local production will hardly allow price to recover. The highest competition will be observed in the long products segment.

  18. Summary: • steel production in Russia will increase. As a result in medium-term perspective the steel products export from the country will go up, first of all – exports of semis; • steel scrap export from Russia will fall with high speed; • the Baltic Sea ports facilities will continue to exceed metal-roll freight-flows. There won't be great changes in the structure of rolled iron supply from Russia via the Baltic Sea ports; • steel products transshipment in the Baltic Sea ports will depend, first of all, on price situation in EU countries and USA.

  19. Thank you for attention A.Kuzmin@metalcourier.com

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